HERITAGE INSURANCE (HRTG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$33.62
+0.12 (+0.36%)
▲
5d:
-5.91%
30d:
-7.15%
90d:
+1.05%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
HOLD
LOW Confidence (91%)
Quality Score
67/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$34.14 – $36.70
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
6.6x
FAIR
vs 6.0x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$42.50
+26.4% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$32.82 / $37.35
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 HOLD: HRTG is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.8% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$21.20
Based on -6.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.16
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HRTG is currently trading at $33.62, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $34.14 to $36.70. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.6) is in line with its historical norms (6.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HRTG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $32.82. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HRTG scores 79/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.50 (+26.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HRTG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $32.82. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HRTG scores 79/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.50 (+26.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$34.14 -
$36.70
Company Quality Score
67/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
91.4%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$34.14 -
$36.70
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support Level
$32.82
Resistance Level
$37.35
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (79/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.4% below Wall St target ($42.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 79/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.9% 5-day decline
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.56
Wall Street Target
$42.50
(+26.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
5.6%
Profit Margin
25.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.8% premium
PE vs Historical
6.6 vs 6.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$34.56
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$35.53
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$36.52
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→6)
PE COMPRESSION
$33.41
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -17.7%)
$74.20
(+121%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.6, Growth: -17.7%)
$24.51
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.6, Growth: -17.7%)
$20.83
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 4.72 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.09
Bull Case
$26.64
(-21%)
Analyst growth -27.7%, PE expands to 5.2
Base Case
$24.22
(-28%)
Market implied -27.7%, PE stable at 4.7
Bear Case
$22.78
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (HRTG)
Bullish
1 Retail Mentions
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 29, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Heritage Insurance Holdings reported Q3 2026 earnings, beating estimates with $1.72 EPS versus $0.91, despite $15.8M in catastrophe losses. Net income was $51.1M, up from $50.4M in the prior-year quarter.
Key Retail Themes:
earnings report
catastrophe losses
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 8:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:36 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:36 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HRTG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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