HRTG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HRTG - HERITAGE INSURANCE HOLDINGS INC
$29.37
-0.60 (-2.00%)
▼
5d:
+5.57%
30d:
+9.55%
90d:
+0.17%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
1d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HRTG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HRTG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.43
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.62
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HRTG is currently trading at $29.37, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.96 to $28.65. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.2) is in line with its historical norms (5.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HRTG is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $30.15. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HRTG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $33.50 (+14.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HRTG is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $30.15. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HRTG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $33.50 (+14.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$25.96 -
$28.65
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($33.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$25.96 -
$28.65
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$25.70
Resistance Level
$30.15
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.20
Wall Street Target
$33.50
(+14.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
20.1%
Profit Margin
23.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.6% premium
PE vs Historical
6.2 vs 5.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$30.13
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$30.92
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$31.72
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→6)
PE COMPRESSION
$29.14
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 8.4%)
$124.97
(+326%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.2, Growth: 8.4%)
$37.41
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.3, Growth: 8.4%)
$31.79
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 4.58 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.55
Bull Case
$23.82
(-19%)
Analyst growth -27.7%, PE expands to 5.0
Base Case
$21.66
(-26%)
Market implied -27.7%, PE stable at 4.6
Bear Case
$20.38
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 3.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 10:30 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:30 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:30 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HRTG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ernie J Garateix
SELL
8334 shares
2026-04-20
Timothy Moura
SELL
24769 shares
2026-04-02
Sharon Binnun
SELL
9200 shares
2026-04-01
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