HERITAGE INSURANCE (HRTG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HRTG - HERITAGE INSURANCE HOLDINGS INC
$37.71
0.63 (1.69%)
▲
5d:
+2.99%
30d:
+14.02%
90d:
+35.53%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
5d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HRTG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HRTG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$31.17
Based on 0.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.35
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HRTG is currently trading at $37.70, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $33.54 to $36.13. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 7.3) compared to its historical average (6.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HRTG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $37.85. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HRTG scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HRTG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $37.85. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HRTG scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$33.54 -
$36.13
Company Quality Score
37/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
22.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($39.00)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 6.9% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 37/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$33.54 -
$36.13
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$34.71
Resistance Level
$37.85
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.29
Wall Street Target
$39.00
(+5.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
32.3%
Profit Margin
25.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.9% premium
PE vs Historical
7.3 vs 6.0
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$39.64
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$42.37
(+14%)
3-Year Target
$45.30
(+22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→6)
PE COMPRESSION
$37.29
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -3.1%)
$91.94
(+148%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.3, Growth: -3.1%)
$33.74
(-9%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.0, Growth: -3.1%)
$27.78
(-25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 5.28 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.01
Bull Case
$29.52
(-20%)
Analyst growth -27.4%, PE expands to 5.8
Base Case
$26.84
(-28%)
Market implied -27.4%, PE stable at 5.3
Bear Case
$25.15
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 3:01 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:01 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:01 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HRTG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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