HERITAGE INSURANCE (HRTG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HRTG - HERITAGE INSURANCE HOLDINGS INC
$34.58
0.05 (0.14%)
â˛
5d:
-1.03%
30d:
+4.92%
90d:
+54.93%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: HRTG is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 4.4% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: HRTG is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 4.4% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$49.07
Based on 10.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$30.47
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HRTG is currently trading at $34.58, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $32.41 to $34.82. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 6.7) compared to its historical average (5.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HRTG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $35.33. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HRTG scores 39/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $39.00 (+12.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HRTG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $35.33. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HRTG scores 39/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $39.00 (+12.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$32.41 -
$34.82
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
41.4%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (39/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($39.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$32.41 -
$34.82
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$33.30
Resistance Level
$35.33
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.67
Wall Street Target
$39.00
(+12.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
32.3%
Profit Margin
25.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.4% premium
PE vs Historical
6.7 vs 5.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.10
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$37.69
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$39.35
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7â6)
PE COMPRESSION
$34.80
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 16.0%)
$105.05
(+204%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.7, Growth: 16.0%)
$34.75
(+1%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.7, Growth: 16.0%)
$29.53
(-15%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 4.86 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.11
Bull Case
$27.69
(-20%)
Analyst growth -27.1%, PE expands to 5.3
Base Case
$25.17
(-27%)
Market implied -27.1%, PE stable at 4.9
Bear Case
$23.48
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 5:46 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:46 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:46 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HRTG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ernie J Garateix
SELL
8334 shares
2026-04-20
Timothy Moura
SELL
24769 shares
2026-04-02
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SELL
9200 shares
2026-04-01
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