HERITAGE INSURANCE (HRTG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HRTG - HERITAGE INSURANCE HOLDINGS INC
$34.11
0.28 (0.83%)
▲
5d:
+2.52%
30d:
-0.7%
90d:
+24.35%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HRTG is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.3% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: HRTG is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.3% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$49.07
Based on 10.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$30.47
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HRTG is currently trading at $34.11, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $33.49 to $34.73. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 6.5) compared to its historical average (5.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HRTG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $32.71, while resistance sits at $35.37.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $39.00 (+15.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HRTG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $32.71, while resistance sits at $35.37.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $39.00 (+15.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$33.49 -
$34.73
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (57/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($39.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (57/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$33.49 -
$34.73
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$32.71
Resistance Level
$35.37
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.53
Wall Street Target
$39.00
(+15.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
32.3%
Profit Margin
25.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.3% premium
PE vs Historical
6.5 vs 5.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$34.95
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$36.10
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$37.29
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→6)
PE COMPRESSION
$33.71
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 16.0%)
$106.25
(+214%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.5, Growth: 16.0%)
$33.99
(+1%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.5, Growth: 16.0%)
$28.89
(-15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 4.78 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.94
Bull Case
$27.23
(-20%)
Analyst growth -25.3%, PE expands to 5.3
Base Case
$24.76
(-27%)
Market implied -25.3%, PE stable at 4.8
Bear Case
$22.54
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 10:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HRTG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ernie J Garateix
SELL
8334 shares
2026-04-20
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