International Bancshares (IBOC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
IBOC - International Bancshares Corp
$69.12
0.63 (0.91%)
▲
5d:
-0.39%
30d:
-0.75%
90d:
-8.93%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: IBOC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: IBOC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$90.44
Based on 4.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$56.16
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: IBOC is currently trading at $69.12, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $69.52 to $71.32. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.2) is in line with its historical norms (10.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, IBOC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $67.75. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: IBOC scores 29/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $87.00 (+25.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, IBOC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $67.75. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: IBOC scores 29/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $87.00 (+25.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$69.52 -
$71.32
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (29/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 25.9% below Wall St target ($87.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$69.52 -
$71.32
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$67.76
Resistance Level
$70.98
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.24
Wall Street Target
$87.00
(+25.9%)
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-4.3%
Profit Margin
49.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.2 vs 10.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$68.29
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$67.47
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$66.66
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$69.00
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 5.6%)
$162.31
(+135%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.2, Growth: 5.6%)
$81.47
(+18%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.7, Growth: 5.6%)
$69.25
(+0%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.32 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.64
Bull Case
$76.59
(+11%)
Analyst growth 1.7%, PE expands to 11.4
Base Case
$69.63
(+1%)
Market implied 1.7%, PE stable at 10.3
Bear Case
$46.58
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.2 to 10.6
Stabilization Target:
$71.55
(+3.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 7:23 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:23 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:23 AM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is IBOC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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