Samsara (IOT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$42.04
+0.59 (+1.42%)
â˛
5d:
-1.8%
30d:
+1.87%
90d:
+2.19%
Open in Live Scanner
70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Dec 03, 2026
21d
Protect IOT Gains
Updated Nov 11, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (73%)
Quality Score
52/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$40.79 â $43.24
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
71.3x
FAIR
vs 66.2x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$52.07
+25.6% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$39.86 / $43.80
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: IOT is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 2.5% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Nov 6, 2026 at $40.83 · last confirmed Nov 6, 2026
Strength: 8.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$24.26
Based on 10.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.07
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: IOT is currently trading at $42.04, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $40.79 to $43.24. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 71.3) is in line with its historical norms (66.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, IOT is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $39.86, while resistance sits at $43.80.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 54/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $52.07 (+25.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, IOT is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $39.86, while resistance sits at $43.80.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 54/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $52.07 (+25.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$40.79 -
$43.24
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.3%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$40.79 -
$43.24
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support Level
$39.86
Resistance Level
$43.80
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Protect Your Profits
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View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (54/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 25.6% below Wall St target ($52.07)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
71.29
Wall Street Target
$52.07
(+25.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
29.9%
Profit Margin
4.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.5% premium
PE vs Historical
71.3 vs 66.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$42.49
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$43.55
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$44.64
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 71â66)
PE COMPRESSION
$41.45
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 71.3, Growth: 17.8%)
$67.82
(+64%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 17.8%)
$18.89
(-54%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 17.8%)
$16.06
(-61%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 42.92 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.97
Bull Case
$50.05
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 45.1
Base Case
$41.45
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 42.9
Bear Case
$31.71
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 38.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (IOT)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 9, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
One bullish trader on StockTwits expresses optimism about investing in $IOT.
Key Retail Themes:
Buy interest
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 2:29 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:29 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:29 PM
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
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Sells
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NEUTRAL
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