Samsara (IOT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
IOT - Samsara Inc.
$40.04
1.91 (5.01%)
â˛
5d:
+1.83%
30d:
+2.51%
90d:
+11.44%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 03, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: IOT is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.7% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: IOT is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.7% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$24.26
Based on 10.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.07
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: IOT is currently trading at $40.04, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $38.08 to $40.86. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 68.9) is in line with its historical norms (65.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, IOT is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $40.44. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 58/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $52.16 (+30.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, IOT is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $40.44. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 58/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $52.16 (+30.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$38.08 -
$40.86
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding IOT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (58/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading 30.3% below Wall St target ($52.16)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$38.08 -
$40.86
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.40
Resistance Level
$40.44
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
68.87
Wall Street Target
$52.16
(+30.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
29.9%
Profit Margin
4.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.7% premium
PE vs Historical
68.9 vs 65.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$40.72
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$41.41
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$42.12
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 69â65)
PE COMPRESSION
$40.00
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 68.9, Growth: 17.8%)
$65.51
(+64%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 17.8%)
$19.41
(-52%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 17.8%)
$16.49
(-59%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 52.36 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.76
Bull Case
$48.35
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 55.0
Base Case
$40.04
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 52.4
Bear Case
$30.63
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 47.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 5:29 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:29 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:29 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is IOT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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2026-04-20
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96562 shares
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