KBH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KBH - KB Home
$54.97
-1.38 (-2.45%)
▼
5d:
-3.15%
30d:
-9.32%
90d:
+3.74%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 23, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: KBH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.9% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: KBH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.9% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$98.70
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$61.28
10.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KBH is currently trading at $54.97, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $54.59 to $60.47. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.9) is in line with its historical norms (11.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KBH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $54.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KBH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $54.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$54.59 -
$60.47
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($58.67)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.9% growth with -27.3% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$54.59 -
$60.47
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$54.01
Resistance Level
$59.48
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.93
Wall Street Target
$58.67
(+6.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-27.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-71.2%
Profit Margin
4.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.9% premium
PE vs Historical
11.9 vs 11.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$56.56
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$58.20
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$59.89
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$55.22
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 38.2%)
$251.91
(+358%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.9, Growth: 38.2%)
$144.98
(+164%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.1, Growth: 38.2%)
$123.23
(+124%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.71 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.11
Bull Case
$69.49
(+26%)
Analyst growth 12.1%, PE expands to 15.1
Base Case
$63.17
(+15%)
Market implied 12.1%, PE stable at 13.7
Bear Case
$38.32
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 8:35 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:35 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:35 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KBH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's KBH price and gamma walls.
