Knife River (KNF) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KNF - Knife River Corporation
$53.85
1.41 (2.69%)
▲
5d:
+7.81%
30d:
+4.71%
90d:
-31.01%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
10d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: KNF shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: KNF shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$124.42
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$77.26
30.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KNF is currently trading at $53.85, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $49.87 to $55.07. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.6) compared to its historical average (19.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KNF is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $53.99. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: KNF scores 66/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $75.12 (+39.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KNF is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $53.99. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: KNF scores 66/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $75.12 (+39.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$49.87 -
$55.07
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (66/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 39.5% below Wall St target ($75.12)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 66/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$49.87 -
$55.07
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$47.79
Resistance Level
$53.99
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.60
Wall Street Target
$75.13
(+39.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-13.5%
Profit Margin
4.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.6 vs 19.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$50.89
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$48.09
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$45.44
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→20)
$53.92
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 39.8%)
$175.98
(+227%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.6, Growth: 39.8%)
$147.12
(+173%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.1, Growth: 39.8%)
$125.06
(+132%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.81 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.52
Bull Case
$74.24
(+38%)
Analyst growth 28.7%, PE expands to 22.9
Base Case
$67.49
(+25%)
Market implied 28.7%, PE stable at 20.8
Bear Case
$35.66
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.6 to 19.7
Stabilization Target:
$63.89
(+18.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+18.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 8:15 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:15 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:15 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KNF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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