Kinsale Capital Group (KNSL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KNSL - Kinsale Capital Group, Inc.
$334.53
11.78 (3.65%)
▲
5d:
-1.76%
30d:
-10.2%
90d:
-5.73%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
20d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: KNSL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: KNSL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$422.13
Based on 3.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$262.11
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KNSL is currently trading at $334.53, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $340.35 to $380.94. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.4) is in line with its historical norms (16.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 34.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KNSL is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $319.00, while resistance sits at $364.00. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: KNSL scores 66/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KNSL is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $319.00, while resistance sits at $364.00. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: KNSL scores 66/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$340.35 -
$380.94
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (66/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.6%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($354.78)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 23% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$340.35 -
$380.94
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$319.00
Resistance Level
$364.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.44
Wall Street Target
$354.78
(+6.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
34.0%
Profit Margin
28.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.4 vs 16.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$326.50
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$318.67
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$311.02
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→17)
$334.49
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 2.5%)
$476.56
(+43%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.4, Growth: 2.5%)
$360.58
(+8%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.1, Growth: 2.5%)
$306.49
(-8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 13.13 | Current EPS (TTM): $24.59
Bull Case
$312.91
(-7%)
Analyst growth -11.9%, PE expands to 14.4
Base Case
$284.47
(-15%)
Market implied -11.9%, PE stable at 13.1
Bear Case
$219.47
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.4 to 16.6
Stabilization Target:
$359.77
(+7.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 01, 2026 6:22 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:22 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:22 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KNSL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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