Kinsale Capital Group (KNSL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KNSL - Kinsale Capital Group, Inc.
$376.70
4.71 (1.27%)
▲
5d:
+7.92%
30d:
+7.07%
90d:
+13.37%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: KNSL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: KNSL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$410.48
Based on 2.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$254.88
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KNSL is currently trading at $376.70, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $330.99 to $362.52. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.4) is in line with its historical norms (16.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KNSL is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $378.45. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: KNSL scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KNSL is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $378.45. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: KNSL scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$330.99 -
$362.52
Company Quality Score
32/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
22.4%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($346.22)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 32/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$330.99 -
$362.52
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$330.36
Resistance Level
$378.45
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.36
Wall Street Target
$346.22
(-8.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
34.0%
Profit Margin
28.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.6% premium
PE vs Historical
17.4 vs 16.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$382.73
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$388.85
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$395.07
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$377.81
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 1.3%)
$448.53
(+19%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.4, Growth: 1.3%)
$392.03
(+4%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.8, Growth: 1.3%)
$333.23
(-12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 15.09 | Current EPS (TTM): $24.65
Bull Case
$360.24
(-4%)
Analyst growth -12.0%, PE expands to 16.6
Base Case
$327.49
(-13%)
Market implied -12.0%, PE stable at 15.1
Bear Case
$252.95
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 21, 2026 9:29 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:29 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:29 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KNSL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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