Kinsale Capital Group (KNSL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$397.72
+11.65 (+3.02%)
▲
5d:
+3.69%
30d:
+16.59%
90d:
+6.48%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (27%)
Quality Score
30/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$342.16 – $383.92
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
18.2x
FAIR
vs 16.6x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$349.00
-12.2% vs target
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$354.40 / $405.41
Trend: Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: KNSL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$32.23
Based on -32.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$20.01
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KNSL is currently trading at $397.72, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $342.16 to $383.92. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.2) is in line with its historical norms (16.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.1% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KNSL is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $405.41. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: KNSL scores 8/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $349.00. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KNSL is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $405.41. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: KNSL scores 8/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $349.00. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$342.16 -
$383.92
Company Quality Score
30/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
27.1%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$342.16 -
$383.92
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$354.40
Resistance Level
$405.41
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (8/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.0%)
- BEARISH: Trading 12.2% above Wall St target ($349.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.1% growth with -8.6% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 30/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.18
Wall Street Target
$349.00
(-12.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-8.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-28.4%
Profit Margin
26.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.1% premium
PE vs Historical
18.2 vs 16.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$410.05
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$422.76
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$435.87
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$398.04
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -69.6%)
$425.52
(+7%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.2, Growth: -69.6%)
$389.47
(-2%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.5, Growth: -69.6%)
$331.05
(-17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 16.82 | Current EPS (TTM): $22.95
Bull Case
$404.87
(+2%)
Analyst growth -4.7%, PE expands to 18.5
Base Case
$368.06
(-8%)
Market implied -4.7%, PE stable at 16.8
Bear Case
$262.53
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (KNSL)
Bullish
3 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
2
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Jun 10, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Brown & Brown, Inc. (BRO) is expected to report improved earnings and revenues for Q4 2025, according to a Yahoo Finance article. The article suggests a positive earnings surprise due to a combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3.
Key Retail Themes:
Positive earnings expectations
Strong business performance
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 10, 2026 9:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:36 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:36 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KNSL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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