KREF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KREF - KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc.
$7.58
0.10 (1.34%)
â˛
5d:
-0.52%
30d:
+6.16%
90d:
+18.25%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: KREF is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 23.0% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: KREF is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 23.0% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$5.69
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$3.53
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KREF is currently trading at $7.58, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $7.20 to $7.62. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 26.1) compared to its historical average (14.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 23.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KREF is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $7.27, while resistance sits at $7.91.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KREF is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $7.27, while resistance sits at $7.91.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$7.20 -
$7.62
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($7.75)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 23.0% growth with 245.1% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$7.20 -
$7.62
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.27
Resistance Level
$7.91
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
26.14
Wall Street Target
$7.75
(+2.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
245.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-64.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+23.0% premium
PE vs Historical
26.1 vs 14.0
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+23.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.32
(+23%)
2-Year Target
$11.47
(+51%)
3-Year Target
$14.11
(+86%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 26â14)
PE COMPRESSION
$7.56
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 3:40 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:40 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:40 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KREF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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