KREF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KREF - KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc.
$7.15
0.03 (0.42%)
▲
5d:
-5.42%
30d:
-6.66%
90d:
+0.56%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: KREF shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: KREF shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$6.05
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$3.76
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KREF is currently trading at $7.15, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $7.33 to $7.68. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 24.7) compared to its historical average (14.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 18.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KREF is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $7.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: KREF scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KREF is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $7.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: KREF scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$7.33 -
$7.68
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (35/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($7.75)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 18.2% growth with 245.1% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$7.33 -
$7.68
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.06
Resistance Level
$7.72
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.66
Wall Street Target
$7.75
(+8.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
245.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-64.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+18.2% premium
PE vs Historical
24.7 vs 14.9
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+18.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.45
(+18%)
2-Year Target
$9.99
(+40%)
3-Year Target
$11.81
(+65%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 25→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$7.14
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 6:39 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:39 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:39 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KREF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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