KSPI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KSPI - Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz American Depository Shares
$92.55
2.02 (2.23%)
▲
5d:
-0.68%
30d:
-0.26%
90d:
+7.01%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 09, 2026
16d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: KSPI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: KSPI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$202049.60
Based on 9.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$125456.90
99.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KSPI is currently trading at $92.55, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $92.46 to $97.01. Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 0.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KSPI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $89.50, while resistance sits at $97.67.
Market Sentiment: KSPI scores 66/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $105.77 (+16.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KSPI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $89.50, while resistance sits at $97.67.
Market Sentiment: KSPI scores 66/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $105.77 (+16.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$92.46 -
$97.01
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (66/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($105.77)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 66/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$92.46 -
$97.01
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$89.50
Resistance Level
$97.67
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.01
Wall Street Target
$105.77
(+16.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
0.2%
Profit Margin
24.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.8% cheaper
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$83.47
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$76.96
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$70.96
(-22%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 14.0%)
$193803.97
(+213977%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.0, Growth: 14.0%)
$134.20
(+48%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.0, Growth: 14.0%)
$114.07
(+26%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (0x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.57 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.91
Bull Case
$205.72
(+127%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 9.4
Base Case
$187.02
(+107%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 8.6
Bear Case
$63.59
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 3:21 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:21 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:21 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KSPI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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