KSPI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KSPI - Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz American Depository Shares
$92.00
3.22 (3.63%)
▲
5d:
+6.38%
30d:
+2.43%
90d:
+6.46%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 10, 2026
6d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: KSPI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: KSPI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$215011.43
Based on 10.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$133505.18
99.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KSPI is currently trading at $92.00, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $86.70 to $89.62. Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KSPI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $93.75. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KSPI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $93.75. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$86.70 -
$89.62
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.0%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.6%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($97.44)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$86.70 -
$89.62
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$84.46
Resistance Level
$93.75
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.01
Wall Street Target
$97.44
(+9.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
31.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-1.0%
Profit Margin
24.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.8% cheaper
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$83.63
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$78.78
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$74.21
(-16%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 16.1%)
$217070.34
(+244404%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.0, Growth: 16.1%)
$139.06
(+57%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.0, Growth: 16.1%)
$118.20
(+33%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (0x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.83 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.37
Bull Case
$195.89
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 8.6
Base Case
$178.08
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 7.8
Bear Case
$60.55
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 3:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:56 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:56 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KSPI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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