KSPI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KSPI - Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz American Depository Shares
$99.89
2.74 (2.82%)
â˛
5d:
-7.35%
30d:
+0.34%
90d:
+21.33%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 10, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: KSPI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 17.1% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: KSPI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 17.1% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$190109.80
Based on 7.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$118043.23
99.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KSPI is currently trading at $99.89, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $95.01 to $106.49. At these levels, the market is pricing in 17.1% annual earnings growth. This is a high bar to clear, indicating the stock may be priced for perfection.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KSPI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $96.88, while resistance sits at $109.00.
Market Sentiment: KSPI scores 16/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KSPI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $96.88, while resistance sits at $109.00.
Market Sentiment: KSPI scores 16/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$95.01 -
$106.49
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
40.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (16/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($108.97)
- BEARISH: Market expects 17.1% growth - appears too optimistic based on history
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$95.01 -
$106.49
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$96.88
Resistance Level
$109.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.02
Wall Street Target
$108.97
(+9.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
0.2%
Profit Margin
24.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+17.1% premium
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+17.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$116.97
(+17%)
2-Year Target
$136.97
(+37%)
3-Year Target
$160.40
(+61%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 11.0%)
$182899.86
(+183001%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.0, Growth: 11.0%)
$136.62
(+37%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.0, Growth: 11.0%)
$116.13
(+16%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (0x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.91
Bull Case
$213.73
(+114%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 9.0
Base Case
$194.30
(+95%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 8.2
Bear Case
$66.06
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 3:03 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:03 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:03 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KSPI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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