KSPI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KSPI - Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz American Depository Shares
$105.55
1.85 (1.78%)
▲
5d:
+6.94%
30d:
+24.18%
90d:
+15.99%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 10, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: KSPI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: KSPI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$180571.53
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$112120.72
99.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KSPI is currently trading at $105.55, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $86.75 to $98.36. At these levels, the market is pricing in 18.1% annual earnings growth. This is a high bar to clear, indicating the stock may be priced for perfection.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KSPI is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $106.05. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: KSPI scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KSPI is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $106.05. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: KSPI scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$86.75 -
$98.36
Company Quality Score
36/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
14.3%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+7.3% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($103.35)
- BEARISH: Market expects 18.1% growth - appears too optimistic based on history
- WARNING: Composite score 36/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$86.75 -
$98.36
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$90.77
Resistance Level
$106.05
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.02
Wall Street Target
$103.35
(-2.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
0.2%
Profit Margin
24.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+18.1% premium
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+18.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$124.65
(+18%)
2-Year Target
$147.22
(+40%)
3-Year Target
$173.86
(+65%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 8.3%)
$170823.16
(+161741%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.0, Growth: 8.3%)
$134.03
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.0, Growth: 8.3%)
$113.93
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (0x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.84 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.73
Bull Case
$228.14
(+116%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 9.7
Base Case
$207.40
(+97%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 8.8
Bear Case
$70.52
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 11:49 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:49 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:49 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KSPI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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