LGI Homes (LGIH) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$43.94
-2.66 (-5.71%)
âŧ
5d:
+0.99%
30d:
-0.14%
90d:
-22.78%
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70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
0d
Protect LGIH Gains
Updated Nov 10, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (56%)
Quality Score
41/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$42.11 â $46.18
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
12.1x
FAIR
vs 13.2x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$93.00
+111.7% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$40.19 / $50.72
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: LGIH is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -2.9% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$71.87
Based on 8.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$44.62
1.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LGIH is currently trading at $43.94, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $42.11 to $46.18. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.1) is in line with its historical norms (13.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 23.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LGIH is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $40.19, while resistance sits at $50.72. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: LGIH scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $93.00 (+111.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LGIH is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $40.19, while resistance sits at $50.72. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: LGIH scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $93.00 (+111.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$42.11 -
$46.18
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.8%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$42.11 -
$46.18
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
Âą$3.41
(7.8%)
Support Level
$40.19
Resistance Level
$50.72
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding LGIH? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (36/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.7%)
- BULLISH: Trading 111.7% below Wall St target ($93.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.05
Wall Street Target
$93.00
(+111.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
23.5%
Profit Margin
4.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.1 vs 13.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$42.67
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$41.43
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$40.23
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12â13)
$44.05
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 12.8%)
$104.03
(+137%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.1, Growth: 12.8%)
$63.15
(+44%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.2, Growth: 12.8%)
$53.67
(+22%)
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Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.23 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.06
Bull Case
$61.06
(+39%)
Analyst growth 19.1%, PE expands to 16.8
Base Case
$55.51
(+26%)
Market implied 19.1%, PE stable at 15.2
Bear Case
$31.69
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.1 to 13.2
Stabilization Target:
$48.11
(+9.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.5%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (LGIH)
Bearish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 3, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Investors are bearish on $LGIH as they await the company's latest quarterly results, with concerns over affordability and cost control in the housing market. LGI Homes is expected to report a 9.2% revenue increase, but analysts question whether the company can execute its entry-level model without eroding profitability.
Key Retail Themes:
Anticipated revenue growth and its impact on LGI Homes' business model
Affordability and cost control in the housing market
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 8:34 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:34 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:34 AM
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Technical Signals Check
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
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Sells
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Net
NEUTRAL
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