El Pollo Loco (LOCO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$15.19
-0.28 (-1.81%)
âŧ
5d:
-7.77%
30d:
-3.98%
90d:
-1.68%
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70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
0d
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Updated Nov 11, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (75%)
Quality Score
46/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$14.72 â $15.96
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
14.3x
FAIR
vs 12.9x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$20.75
+36.6% upside
Options IV & Volume
34th pct IV
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$14.00 / $16.60
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: LOCO is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 3.5% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.00
Based on 6.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.80
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LOCO is currently trading at $15.19, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.72 to $15.96. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 14.2) compared to its historical average (12.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LOCO is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $14.00, while resistance sits at $16.60.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 52/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.75 (+36.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LOCO is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $14.00, while resistance sits at $16.60.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 52/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.75 (+36.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$14.72 -
$15.96
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
34th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.6%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$14.72 -
$15.96
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
Âą$1.13
(7.4%)
Support Level
$14.00
Resistance Level
$16.60
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding LOCO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 34th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (52/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 36.6% below Wall St target ($20.75)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.5% growth with 3.9% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.25
Wall Street Target
$20.75
(+36.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-8.0%
Profit Margin
6.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.5% premium
PE vs Historical
14.3 vs 12.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.72
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$16.27
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$16.84
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14â13)
PE COMPRESSION
$15.25
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 9.4%)
$27.75
(+83%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.2, Growth: 9.4%)
$19.91
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.1, Growth: 9.4%)
$16.93
(+11%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 13.45 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.15
Bull Case
$15.77
(+4%)
Analyst growth -7.3%, PE expands to 14.8
Base Case
$14.34
(-6%)
Market implied -7.3%, PE stable at 13.5
Bear Case
$10.52
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (LOCO)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 4, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
StockTwits messages indicate bullish sentiment for $LOCO, with one user expressing optimism about the company's growth potential in the chicken industry.
Key Retail Themes:
Company growth
Industry trends
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 4:46 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:46 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:46 AM
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
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Sells
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NEUTRAL
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