El Pollo Loco (LOCO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LOCO - El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc.
$15.18
0.12 (0.80%)
▲
5d:
+1.2%
30d:
-0.13%
90d:
-3.44%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: LOCO is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: LOCO is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.71
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.62
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LOCO is currently trading at $15.18, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.97 to $15.95. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.7) is in line with its historical norms (12.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LOCO is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $14.87. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.30 (+33.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LOCO is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $14.87. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.30 (+33.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$14.97 -
$15.95
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
80.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding LOCO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (53/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 33.7% below Wall St target ($20.30)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (53/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.97 -
$15.95
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.87
Resistance Level
$15.54
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.72
Wall Street Target
$20.30
(+33.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
79.2%
Profit Margin
7.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.6% premium
PE vs Historical
13.7 vs 12.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.57
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$15.98
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$16.40
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$15.18
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 7.8%)
$27.96
(+84%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.7, Growth: 7.8%)
$19.01
(+25%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.7, Growth: 7.8%)
$16.16
(+7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 12.87 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.17
Bull Case
$15.67
(+3%)
Analyst growth -5.4%, PE expands to 14.2
Base Case
$14.25
(-6%)
Market implied -5.4%, PE stable at 12.9
Bear Case
$10.24
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 5:58 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:58 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:58 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LOCO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced LOCO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's LOCO price and gamma walls.
