Grand Canyon Education (LOPE) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LOPE - Grand Canyon Education, Inc
$163.35
3.59 (2.25%)
▲
5d:
+1.19%
30d:
+8.44%
90d:
+16.73%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
12d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: LOPE shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: LOPE shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$235.12
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$145.99
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LOPE is currently trading at $163.35, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $150.17 to $160.19. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.1) is in line with its historical norms (14.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 18.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LOPE is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $164.94. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: LOPE scores 28/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $194.00 (+21.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LOPE is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $164.94. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: LOPE scores 28/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $194.00 (+21.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$150.17 -
$160.19
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
36.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding LOPE? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (28/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.4% below Wall St target ($194.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$150.17 -
$160.19
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$8.81
(5.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$155.00
Resistance Level
$164.94
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.13
Wall Street Target
$194.00
(+21.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
18.2%
Profit Margin
19.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.1 vs 14.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$157.84
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$155.95
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$154.08
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→15)
$159.25
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 10.7%)
$305.02
(+91%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.1, Growth: 10.7%)
$216.95
(+36%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.0, Growth: 10.7%)
$184.41
(+15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.41 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.26
Bull Case
$241.53
(+51%)
Analyst growth 36.9%, PE expands to 21.4
Base Case
$219.57
(+37%)
Market implied 36.9%, PE stable at 19.4
Bear Case
$109.04
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.1 to 14.6
Stabilization Target:
$165.13
(+3.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 12:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:37 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LOPE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced LOPE Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's LOPE price and gamma walls.