Grand Canyon Education (LOPE) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$117.75
+1.25 (+1.07%)
▲
5d:
-21.85%
30d:
-25.87%
90d:
-18.97%
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70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
0d
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Updated Nov 11, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (84%)
Quality Score
50/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$134.73 – $166.17
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
10.7x
CHEAP
vs 14.5x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$184.33
+56.5% upside
Options IV & Volume
17th pct IV
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$113.84 / $157.15
Trend: Sideways
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: LOPE is down 21.8% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$221.66
Based on 6.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$137.63
14.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LOPE is currently trading at $117.75, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $134.73 to $166.17. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.7) compared to its historical average (14.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 187.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LOPE is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $113.84, while resistance sits at $157.15.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (17th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $184.33 (+56.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LOPE is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $113.84, while resistance sits at $157.15.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (17th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $184.33 (+56.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$134.73 -
$166.17
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
17th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$134.73 -
$166.17
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$6.01
(5.1%)
Support Level
$113.84
Resistance Level
$157.15
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding LOPE? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 17th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (50/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 56.5% below Wall St target ($184.33)
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.67
Wall Street Target
$184.33
(+56.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
187.9%
Profit Margin
21.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.7 vs 14.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$106.21
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$95.80
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$86.41
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→15)
$117.44
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 9.5%)
$287.43
(+144%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.7, Growth: 9.5%)
$154.41
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.1, Growth: 9.5%)
$131.25
(+12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.45 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.36
Bull Case
$151.11
(+28%)
Analyst growth 17.9%, PE expands to 13.7
Base Case
$137.37
(+17%)
Market implied 17.9%, PE stable at 12.5
Bear Case
$79.22
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.7 to 14.5
Stabilization Target:
$160.03
(+35.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+35.9%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (LOPE)
Neutral
1 Retail Mentions
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 6, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Bearish sentiment dominates $LOPE on StockTwits with one trader predicting a price drop to $100.
Key Retail Themes:
Price Prediction
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 8:10 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:10 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:10 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LOPE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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