LOPE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LOPE - Grand Canyon Education, Inc
$145.34
-4.79 (-3.19%)
▼
5d:
+3.86%
30d:
-2.0%
90d:
-14.04%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: LOPE trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -3.7% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: LOPE trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -3.7% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$240.57
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$149.38
2.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LOPE is currently trading at $145.34, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $140.60 to $151.91. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.4) compared to its historical average (15.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 11.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LOPE is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $134.27, while resistance sits at $159.43. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: LOPE has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $205.00 (+36.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LOPE is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $134.27, while resistance sits at $159.43. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: LOPE has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $205.00 (+36.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$140.60 -
$151.91
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
69th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.9%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 69th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading 36.5% below Wall St target ($205.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$140.60 -
$151.91
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$10.58
(7.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$134.27
Resistance Level
$159.43
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.45
Wall Street Target
$205.00
(+36.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
11.1%
Profit Margin
19.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.5 vs 15.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$144.58
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$139.23
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$134.07
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→15)
$150.54
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.8, Growth: 10.8%)
$316.17
(+111%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.4, Growth: 10.8%)
$204.33
(+36%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.4, Growth: 10.8%)
$173.68
(+16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.83 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.46
Bull Case
$231.24
(+59%)
Analyst growth 32.0%, PE expands to 20.7
Base Case
$210.22
(+45%)
Market implied 32.0%, PE stable at 18.8
Bear Case
$108.33
(-26%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.4 to 15.1
Stabilization Target:
$168.57
(+12.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 2:47 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:47 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:47 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LOPE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced LOPE Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's LOPE price and gamma walls.