MasterCraft Boat (MCFT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MCFT - MasterCraft Boat Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$19.15
-0.44 (-2.25%)
▼
5d:
-15.97%
30d:
-23.74%
90d:
-16.48%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 16, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: MCFT is down 16.0% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: MCFT is down 16.0% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.53
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.68
15.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MCFT is currently trading at $19.15, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.58 to $25.39. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.7) compared to its historical average (13.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCFT is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $19.05. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MCFT scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.80 (+39.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCFT is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $19.05. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MCFT scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.80 (+39.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$21.58 -
$25.39
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
59th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MCFT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 59th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 39.9% below Wall St target ($26.80)
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$21.58 -
$25.39
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.03
(10.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$19.05
Resistance Level
$24.70
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Sep 16, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.70
Wall Street Target
$26.80
(+39.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
63.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-8.7%
Profit Margin
-0.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.7 vs 13.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.27
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$15.58
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$14.05
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→13)
$19.13
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 0.0%)
$39.88
(+108%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.7, Growth: 0.0%)
$19.15
(0%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.2, Growth: 0.0%)
$16.28
(-15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (34x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 34.28 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.60
Bull Case
$45.25
(+130%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 37.7
Base Case
$41.14
(+110%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 34.3
Bear Case
$13.99
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.7 to 13.2
Stabilization Target:
$26.07
(+36.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+36.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 17, 2026 6:03 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:03 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:03 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MCFT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced MCFT Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MCFT price and gamma walls.
