Patrick Industries (PATK) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PATK - Patrick Industries Inc
$73.40
-1.46 (-1.95%)
▼
5d:
-10.04%
30d:
-15.4%
90d:
-14.37%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: PATK is down 10.0% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: PATK is down 10.0% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$182.56
Based on 14.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$113.35
35.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PATK is currently trading at $73.40, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $79.88 to $87.26. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.7) compared to its historical average (17.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 33.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PATK is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $73.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PATK scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $108.00 (+47.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PATK is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $73.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PATK scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $108.00 (+47.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$79.88 -
$87.26
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (31/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 47.1% below Wall St target ($108.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$79.88 -
$87.26
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$73.06
Resistance Level
$84.03
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.74
Wall Street Target
$108.00
(+47.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
33.3%
Profit Margin
3.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.7 vs 17.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$67.45
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$61.99
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$56.97
(-22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→18)
$73.37
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 24.6%)
$208.32
(+184%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.7, Growth: 24.6%)
$141.94
(+93%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.7, Growth: 24.6%)
$120.65
(+64%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.30 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.09
Bull Case
$107.53
(+47%)
Analyst growth 30.6%, PE expands to 20.1
Base Case
$97.76
(+33%)
Market implied 30.6%, PE stable at 18.3
Bear Case
$50.90
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.7 to 17.7
Stabilization Target:
$94.54
(+28.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+28.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 4:52 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:52 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:52 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PATK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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