PATK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PATK - Patrick Industries Inc
$83.41
-2.07 (-2.42%)
▼
5d:
-3.08%
30d:
-2.39%
90d:
-7.54%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PATK shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PATK shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$186.91
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$116.06
28.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PATK is currently trading at $83.41, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $84.31 to $87.57. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.9) compared to its historical average (17.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 33.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PATK is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $83.36. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 46/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $106.70 (+24.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PATK is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $83.36. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 46/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $106.70 (+24.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$84.31 -
$87.57
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (46/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.8% below Wall St target ($106.70)
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$84.31 -
$87.57
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$83.36
Resistance Level
$88.70
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.94
Wall Street Target
$106.70
(+24.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
33.3%
Profit Margin
3.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.9 vs 17.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$82.32
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$79.27
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$76.34
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→18)
$85.72
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 25.0%)
$210.00
(+146%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.9, Growth: 25.0%)
$166.80
(+95%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.6, Growth: 25.0%)
$141.78
(+66%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.92 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.39
Bull Case
$117.48
(+41%)
Analyst growth 22.1%, PE expands to 21.9
Base Case
$106.80
(+28%)
Market implied 22.1%, PE stable at 19.9
Bear Case
$59.46
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.9 to 17.9
Stabilization Target:
$95.98
(+12.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 7:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:39 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is PATK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
M Scott Welch
BUY
10000 shares
2026-03-12
Hugo E Gonzalez
SELL
13514 shares
2026-03-12
M Scott Welch
BUY
50 shares
2026-03-06
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