Patrick Industries (PATK) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$78.59
-0.88 (-1.11%)
âŧ
5d:
-5.44%
30d:
+24.14%
90d:
-8.68%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (43%)
Quality Score
29/100
Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
30-Day Fair Range
$65.16 â $78.92
Position: SLIGHTLY HIGH
Forward P/E & Valuation
15.6x
FAIR
vs 16.9x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$97.58
+24.2% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$74.24 / $86.48
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: PATK is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -2.7% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$145.91
Based on 11.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$90.60
13.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PATK is currently trading at $78.59, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $65.16 to $78.92. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.6) is in line with its historical norms (16.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PATK is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $74.24, while resistance sits at $86.48.
Market Sentiment: PATK scores 8/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $97.58 (+24.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PATK is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $74.24, while resistance sits at $86.48.
Market Sentiment: PATK scores 8/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $97.58 (+24.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$65.16 -
$78.92
Company Quality Score
29/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
42.9%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$65.16 -
$78.92
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support Level
$74.24
Resistance Level
$86.48
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (8/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.2% below Wall St target ($97.58)
- WARNING: Composite score 29/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.57
Wall Street Target
$97.58
(+24.2%)
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-36.6%
Profit Margin
3.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.6 vs 16.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$76.47
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$74.40
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$72.39
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16â17)
$78.60
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 18.9%)
$168.73
(+115%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.6, Growth: 18.9%)
$132.24
(+68%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.2, Growth: 18.9%)
$112.41
(+43%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.59 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.86
Bull Case
$114.35
(+46%)
Analyst growth 30.8%, PE expands to 22.7
Base Case
$103.95
(+32%)
Market implied 30.8%, PE stable at 20.6
Bear Case
$54.04
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.6 to 16.9
Stabilization Target:
$85.33
(+8.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.6%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (PATK)
Bullish
3 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
2
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 29, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Investor @username reported positive earnings surprise for $PATK with an adjusted EPS of $1.03, exceeding estimates by 5.7%.
Key Retail Themes:
earnings surprise
positive sentiment
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 9:35 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:35 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:35 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PATK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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