PATK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PATK - Patrick Industries Inc
$83.92
1.37 (1.65%)
▲
5d:
-0.92%
30d:
-1.31%
90d:
-5.65%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PATK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: PATK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$193.70
Based on 14.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$120.27
30.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PATK is currently trading at $83.92, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $83.17 to $89.56. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.8) compared to its historical average (18.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PATK is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $81.81. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PATK has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $114.90 (+39.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PATK is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $81.81. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PATK has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $114.90 (+39.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$83.17 -
$89.56
Company Quality Score
39/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 39.2% below Wall St target ($114.90)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$83.17 -
$89.56
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$81.81
Resistance Level
$89.65
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.75
Wall Street Target
$114.90
(+39.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-0.9%
Profit Margin
3.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.8 vs 18.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$77.27
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$72.32
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$67.69
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→18)
$82.60
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 24.4%)
$223.09
(+170%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.8, Growth: 24.4%)
$158.75
(+92%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.5, Growth: 24.4%)
$134.94
(+64%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.22 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.78
Bull Case
$136.79
(+66%)
Analyst growth 48.0%, PE expands to 24.4
Base Case
$124.36
(+51%)
Market implied 48.0%, PE stable at 22.2
Bear Case
$57.12
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.8 to 18.0
Stabilization Target:
$100.73
(+22.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+22.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 3:13 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:13 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:13 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is PATK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
5
Buys
3
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
M Scott Welch
BUY
10000 shares
2026-03-12
Hugo E Gonzalez
SELL
13514 shares
2026-03-12
M Scott Welch
BUY
50 shares
2026-03-06
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