Patrick Industries (PATK) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PATK - Patrick Industries Inc
$67.16
0.60 (0.90%)
▲
5d:
-1.94%
30d:
-18.84%
90d:
-21.84%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
25d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PATK shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PATK shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$177.56
Based on 14.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$110.25
39.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PATK is currently trading at $67.16, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $68.24 to $81.01. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.6) compared to its historical average (17.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 33.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PATK is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $66.24. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PATK scores 65/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $108.00 (+60.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PATK is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $66.24. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PATK scores 65/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $108.00 (+60.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$68.24 -
$81.01
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (65/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 60.8% below Wall St target ($108.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$68.24 -
$81.01
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$66.24
Resistance Level
$71.79
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.61
Wall Street Target
$108.00
(+60.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
33.3%
Profit Margin
3.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.6 vs 17.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$60.44
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$54.40
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$48.96
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→17)
$67.17
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 24.5%)
$209.81
(+212%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.6, Growth: 24.5%)
$129.69
(+93%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.7, Growth: 24.5%)
$110.23
(+64%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.85 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.20
Bull Case
$92.84
(+38%)
Analyst growth 26.8%, PE expands to 17.4
Base Case
$84.40
(+26%)
Market implied 26.8%, PE stable at 15.9
Bear Case
$45.26
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.6 to 17.3
Stabilization Target:
$92.14
(+37.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+37.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 9:15 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:15 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:15 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PATK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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