Patrick Industries (PATK) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PATK - Patrick Industries Inc
$68.86
-1.41 (-2.01%)
âŧ
5d:
+1.21%
30d:
+1.62%
90d:
-18.69%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: PATK is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -7.9% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: PATK is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -7.9% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$165.53
Based on 13.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$102.78
33.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PATK is currently trading at $68.86, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $65.43 to $70.06. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.3) compared to its historical average (17.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 33.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PATK is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $63.00, while resistance sits at $71.22.
Market Sentiment: PATK scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $100.82 (+46.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PATK is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $63.00, while resistance sits at $71.22.
Market Sentiment: PATK scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $100.82 (+46.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$65.43 -
$70.06
Company Quality Score
38/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
50.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (30/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 46.4% below Wall St target ($100.82)
- WARNING: Composite score 38/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$65.43 -
$70.06
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$63.00
Resistance Level
$71.22
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.29
Wall Street Target
$100.82
(+46.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
33.3%
Profit Margin
3.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.3 vs 17.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$63.42
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$58.41
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$53.80
(-22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13â17)
$68.82
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 23.3%)
$192.74
(+180%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.3, Growth: 23.3%)
$128.96
(+87%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.3, Growth: 23.3%)
$109.62
(+59%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.73 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.20
Bull Case
$95.37
(+39%)
Analyst growth 23.4%, PE expands to 18.4
Base Case
$86.70
(+26%)
Market implied 23.4%, PE stable at 16.7
Bear Case
$47.78
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.3 to 17.0
Stabilization Target:
$88.09
(+27.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+27.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 8:54 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:54 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:54 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PATK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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