PATK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PATK - Patrick Industries Inc
$87.17
0.70 (0.81%)
▲
5d:
+1.13%
30d:
-3.37%
90d:
-21.93%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PATK trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -7.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PATK trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -7.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$201.70
Based on 13.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$125.24
30.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PATK is currently trading at $87.17, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $85.89 to $91.30. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.7) compared to its historical average (18.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PATK is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $84.43, while resistance sits at $95.99.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $119.50 (+37.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PATK is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $84.43, while resistance sits at $95.99.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $119.50 (+37.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$85.89 -
$91.30
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 37.1% below Wall St target ($119.50)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$85.89 -
$91.30
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$84.43
Resistance Level
$95.99
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.65
Wall Street Target
$119.50
(+37.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-0.9%
Profit Margin
3.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.7 vs 18.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$80.63
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$74.58
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$68.99
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→19)
$87.15
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 22.1%)
$236.02
(+171%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.6, Growth: 22.1%)
$158.71
(+82%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.4, Growth: 22.1%)
$134.90
(+55%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.23 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.89
Bull Case
$145.54
(+67%)
Analyst growth 53.0%, PE expands to 24.5
Base Case
$132.31
(+52%)
Market implied 53.0%, PE stable at 22.2
Bear Case
$58.80
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.6 to 18.5
Stabilization Target:
$110.11
(+26.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+26.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 11:20 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:20 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:20 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PATK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
5
Buys
3
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
M Scott Welch
BUY
10000 shares
2026-03-12
Hugo E Gonzalez
SELL
13514 shares
2026-03-12
M Scott Welch
BUY
50 shares
2026-03-06
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