PATK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PATK - Patrick Industries Inc
$83.43
0.73 (0.88%)
▲
5d:
-2.91%
30d:
-0.26%
90d:
-29.06%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
15d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PATK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: PATK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$194.76
Based on 13.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$120.93
31.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PATK is currently trading at $83.43, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $83.74 to $90.04. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.5) compared to its historical average (18.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PATK is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $84.43. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PATK has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $116.90 (+40.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PATK is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $84.43. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PATK has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $116.90 (+40.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$83.74 -
$90.04
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 40.1% below Wall St target ($116.90)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$83.74 -
$90.04
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$84.43
Resistance Level
$95.99
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.46
Wall Street Target
$116.90
(+40.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-0.9%
Profit Margin
3.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.5 vs 18.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$77.26
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$71.54
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$66.25
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→18)
$83.35
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 22.7%)
$231.91
(+178%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.5, Growth: 22.7%)
$154.01
(+85%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.3, Growth: 22.7%)
$130.91
(+57%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.26 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.89
Bull Case
$134.89
(+62%)
Analyst growth 48.3%, PE expands to 23.4
Base Case
$122.63
(+47%)
Market implied 48.3%, PE stable at 21.3
Bear Case
$56.24
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.5 to 18.2
Stabilization Target:
$104.98
(+25.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+25.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 2:04 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:04 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:04 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is PATK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
5
Buys
3
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
M Scott Welch
BUY
10000 shares
2026-03-12
Hugo E Gonzalez
SELL
13514 shares
2026-03-12
M Scott Welch
BUY
50 shares
2026-03-06
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