MongoDB (MDB) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MDB - MongoDB, Inc. Class A
$357.96
6.23 (1.77%)
▲
5d:
-12.79%
30d:
-4.65%
90d:
+0.01%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 01, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Sep 28, 2026 at $334.68 · last confirmed Oct 2, 2026
Strength: 9.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: MDB is down 12.8% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: MDB is down 12.8% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$243.20
Based on 11.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$151.01
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MDB is currently trading at $357.96, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $356.98 to $422.75. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 62.8) is in line with its historical norms (65.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 2.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MDB is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $300.00, while resistance sits at $439.75.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 40/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $446.50 (+24.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MDB is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $300.00, while resistance sits at $439.75.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 40/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $446.50 (+24.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$356.98 -
$422.75
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MDB? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.7% below Wall St target ($446.50)
- WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$356.98 -
$422.75
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$300.00
Resistance Level
$439.75
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
62.78
Wall Street Target
$446.50
(+24.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
30.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2.2%
Profit Margin
2.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
62.8 vs 65.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$353.31
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$348.71
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$344.18
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 63→65)
$357.98
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 62.8, Growth: 18.8%)
$599.75
(+68%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 18.8%)
$194.87
(-46%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 18.8%)
$165.64
(-54%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (70x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (63x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 70.42 | Forward EPS (Implied): $5.08
Bull Case
$432.24
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 73.9
Base Case
$357.96
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 70.4
Bear Case
$273.84
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 63.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 62.8 to 65.3
Stabilization Target:
$372.31
(+4.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 9:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MDB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Dwight A Merriman
SELL
4000 shares
2026-04-16
Dwight A Merriman
SELL
8000 shares
2026-04-14
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Advanced MDB Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MDB price and gamma walls.
