Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MDGL - Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Common Stock
$457.96
-9.58 (-2.05%)
▼
5d:
-0.45%
30d:
-11.73%
90d:
-15.72%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
11d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MDGL trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -18.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MDGL trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -18.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$337.16
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$209.35
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MDGL is currently trading at $457.96, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $466.58 to $523.37. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 47.6) compared to its historical average (88.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 18.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MDGL is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $443.48, while resistance sits at $492.33.
Market Sentiment: MDGL scores 80/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (25th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $685.22 (+49.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MDGL is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $443.48, while resistance sits at $492.33.
Market Sentiment: MDGL scores 80/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (25th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $685.22 (+49.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$466.58 -
$523.37
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
25th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
92.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 25th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (80/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 49.6% below Wall St target ($685.22)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 80/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$466.58 -
$523.37
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$35.86
(7.8%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$443.48
Resistance Level
$492.33
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
47.58
Wall Street Target
$685.22
(+49.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
71.2%
Profit Margin
-25.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-18.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
47.6 vs 88.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-18.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$412.16
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$370.95
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$333.85
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 48→88)
$618.87
(+35%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 47.6 to 88.2
Stabilization Target:
$848.92
(+85.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+85.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 5:27 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:27 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:27 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MDGL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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Advanced MDGL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MDGL price and gamma walls.
