Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MDGL - Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Common Stock
$499.71
-4.25 (-0.84%)
▼
5d:
-2.63%
30d:
-7.24%
90d:
-5.38%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MDGL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MDGL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$337.16
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$209.35
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MDGL is currently trading at $499.71, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $513.99 to $541.03. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 51.9) compared to its historical average (91.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 17.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MDGL is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $497.73. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MDGL scores 37/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (2th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $682.11 (+36.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MDGL is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $497.73. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MDGL scores 37/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (2th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $682.11 (+36.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$513.99 -
$541.03
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
2th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MDGL? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 2th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (37/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 36.5% below Wall St target ($682.11)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$513.99 -
$541.03
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$36.16
(7.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$497.73
Resistance Level
$537.73
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
51.92
Wall Street Target
$682.11
(+36.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
71.2%
Profit Margin
-25.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-17.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
51.9 vs 91.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-17.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$449.74
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$404.77
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$364.29
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 52→91)
$638.51
(+28%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 51.9 to 91.0
Stabilization Target:
$875.88
(+75.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+75.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 12:48 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:48 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:48 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MDGL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced MDGL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MDGL price and gamma walls.
