MGE Energy (MGEE) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$79.53
-0.19 (-0.24%)
▼
5d:
+2.5%
30d:
+11.68%
90d:
-1.81%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (24%)
Quality Score
25/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$70.57 – $76.99
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
18.8x
FAIR
vs 18.9x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$79.92
+0.5% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$73.39 / $81.12
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MGEE shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$94.95
Based on 3.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$58.96
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MGEE is currently trading at $79.53, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $70.57 to $76.99. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.8) is in line with its historical norms (18.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 21.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGEE is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $81.12. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MGEE scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGEE is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $81.12. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MGEE scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$70.57 -
$76.99
Company Quality Score
25/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
23.8%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$70.57 -
$76.99
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$73.39
Resistance Level
$81.12
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($79.92)
- WARNING: Composite score 25/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.76
Wall Street Target
$79.92
(+0.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
21.5%
Profit Margin
21.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.8 vs 18.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$79.37
(0%)
2-Year Target
$79.21
(0%)
3-Year Target
$79.05
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→19)
$79.66
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 2.9%)
$91.63
(+15%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.8, Growth: 2.9%)
$86.53
(+9%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.9, Growth: 2.9%)
$73.55
(-8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 18.45 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.32
Bull Case
$86.08
(+8%)
Analyst growth -1.8%, PE expands to 20.3
Base Case
$78.25
(-2%)
Market implied -1.8%, PE stable at 18.5
Bear Case
$54.21
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.8 to 18.9
Stabilization Target:
$80.14
(+0.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.8%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (MGEE)
Bullish
1 Retail Mentions
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 2, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
StockTwits user, with a bullish sentiment and 27 followers, ranked $MGEE as the 11th top utility stock using Stock Meadow's scoring model.
Key Retail Themes:
Stock ranking
Utility sector
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 8:32 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:32 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:32 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MGEE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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