MGEE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MGEE - MGE Energy Inc
$82.17
0.40 (0.49%)
▲
5d:
-0.95%
30d:
+5.71%
90d:
+1.73%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
21d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MGEE is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: MGEE is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$100.28
Based on 4.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$62.27
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MGEE is currently trading at $82.17, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $76.07 to $81.74. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.9) is in line with its historical norms (19.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGEE is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $78.47. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MGEE has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGEE is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $78.47. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MGEE has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$76.07 -
$81.74
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.7%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($77.25)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$76.07 -
$81.74
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$72.16
Resistance Level
$78.48
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.85
Wall Street Target
$77.25
(-6.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
15.9%
Profit Margin
19.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.9% premium
PE vs Historical
19.9 vs 19.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$82.91
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$83.66
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$84.41
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→19)
PE COMPRESSION
$82.08
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 5.3%)
$105.41
(+28%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.8, Growth: 5.3%)
$96.06
(+17%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 5.3%)
$81.65
(-1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.97 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.90
Bull Case
$95.48
(+16%)
Analyst growth 6.2%, PE expands to 23.1
Base Case
$86.80
(+6%)
Market implied 6.2%, PE stable at 21.0
Bear Case
$55.60
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 7:42 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:42 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:42 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MGEE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
James G Berbee
BUY
373 shares
2026-03-11
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