MGEE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MGEE - MGE Energy Inc
$77.27
1.26 (1.66%)
▲
5d:
+0.6%
30d:
+1.68%
90d:
+1.52%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MGEE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MGEE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$101.49
Based on 4.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$63.02
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MGEE is currently trading at $77.27, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $74.55 to $76.99. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.6) is in line with its historical norms (19.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 15.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGEE is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $78.47. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MGEE has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGEE is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $78.47. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MGEE has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$74.55 -
$76.99
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($76.25)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$74.55 -
$76.99
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$72.16
Resistance Level
$78.48
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.62
Wall Street Target
$76.25
(-1.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
15.9%
Profit Margin
19.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.6 vs 19.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$76.34
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$75.43
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$74.52
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→19)
$77.25
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 5.7%)
$106.64
(+38%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.6, Growth: 5.7%)
$91.16
(+18%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.8, Growth: 5.7%)
$77.49
(+0%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.47 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.90
Bull Case
$88.87
(+17%)
Analyst growth 6.4%, PE expands to 21.4
Base Case
$80.79
(+6%)
Market implied 6.4%, PE stable at 19.5
Bear Case
$51.63
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.6 to 19.3
Stabilization Target:
$80.10
(+3.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 5:46 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:46 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:46 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MGEE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
James G Berbee
BUY
373 shares
2026-03-11
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