MGEE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MGEE - MGE Energy Inc
$78.66
-1.82 (-2.26%)
▼
5d:
-3.76%
30d:
-4.54%
90d:
+3.51%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MGEE shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MGEE shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$109.21
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$67.81
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MGEE is currently trading at $78.66, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $80.01 to $81.92. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.6) is in line with its historical norms (19.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 23.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGEE is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $78.65. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGEE is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $78.65. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$80.01 -
$81.92
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (48/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($78.25)
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$80.01 -
$81.92
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$78.65
Resistance Level
$82.45
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.55
Wall Street Target
$78.25
(-0.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
23.6%
Profit Margin
19.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.6 vs 19.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$77.56
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$76.47
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$75.40
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→19)
$78.44
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 7.9%)
$106.86
(+36%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.6, Growth: 7.9%)
$98.78
(+26%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.8, Growth: 7.9%)
$83.96
(+7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.97 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.03
Bull Case
$93.14
(+18%)
Analyst growth 5.2%, PE expands to 22.0
Base Case
$84.67
(+8%)
Market implied 5.2%, PE stable at 20.0
Bear Case
$54.73
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.6 to 19.3
Stabilization Target:
$81.83
(+4.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 5:49 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:49 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:49 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MGEE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
James G Berbee
BUY
373 shares
2026-03-11
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