MGE Energy (MGEE) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MGEE - MGE Energy Inc
$70.94
0.89 (1.27%)
▲
5d:
+1.26%
30d:
-7.88%
90d:
-14.49%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MGEE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MGEE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$100.09
Based on 4.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$62.15
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MGEE is currently trading at $70.94, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $71.26 to $78.28. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.7) compared to its historical average (19.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 23.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGEE is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $68.01, while resistance sits at $74.11.
Market Sentiment: MGEE scores 79/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGEE is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $68.01, while resistance sits at $74.11.
Market Sentiment: MGEE scores 79/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$71.26 -
$78.28
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
85.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (79/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($76.80)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 23% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$71.26 -
$78.28
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$68.01
Resistance Level
$74.11
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.70
Wall Street Target
$76.80
(+9.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
23.6%
Profit Margin
19.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.7 vs 19.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$66.97
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$64.02
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$61.20
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→19)
$70.01
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 5.1%)
$99.46
(+42%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.7, Growth: 5.1%)
$81.41
(+16%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.2, Growth: 5.1%)
$69.20
(-1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.11 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.06
Bull Case
$78.94
(+13%)
Analyst growth 3.3%, PE expands to 18.8
Base Case
$71.76
(+2%)
Market implied 3.3%, PE stable at 17.1
Bear Case
$47.23
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.7 to 19.1
Stabilization Target:
$80.12
(+14.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 2:59 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:59 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:59 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MGEE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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