MGEE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MGEE - MGE Energy Inc
$79.53
0.03 (0.04%)
▲
5d:
-3.51%
30d:
-1.95%
90d:
-0.86%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
1d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MGEE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MGEE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$100.28
Based on 4.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$62.27
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MGEE is currently trading at $79.53, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $80.19 to $82.68. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.2) is in line with its historical norms (19.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 15.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGEE is showing support break momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $78.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGEE is showing support break momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $78.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$80.19 -
$82.68
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($77.25)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$80.19 -
$82.68
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$78.00
Resistance Level
$83.84
Current Trend
Support Break
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.21
Wall Street Target
$77.25
(-2.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
15.9%
Profit Margin
19.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.2 vs 19.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$79.37
(0%)
2-Year Target
$79.21
(0%)
3-Year Target
$79.05
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→19)
$79.42
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 5.3%)
$100.33
(+26%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.2, Growth: 5.3%)
$92.97
(+17%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.3, Growth: 5.3%)
$79.03
(-1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.60 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.86
Bull Case
$93.79
(+18%)
Analyst growth 7.3%, PE expands to 22.7
Base Case
$85.27
(+7%)
Market implied 7.3%, PE stable at 20.6
Bear Case
$54.06
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.2 to 19.3
Stabilization Target:
$79.90
(+0.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 1:53 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:53 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:53 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MGEE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
James G Berbee
BUY
373 shares
2026-03-11
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