MGE Energy (MGEE) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MGEE - MGE Energy Inc
$76.48
0.04 (0.05%)
▲
5d:
-1.44%
30d:
-5.95%
90d:
-0.29%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MGEE shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MGEE shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$106.67
Based on 5.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$66.24
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MGEE is currently trading at $76.48, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $77.55 to $80.99. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.0) is in line with its historical norms (19.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 23.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGEE is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $76.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGEE is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $76.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$77.55 -
$80.99
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (43/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($77.75)
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$77.55 -
$80.99
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$76.02
Resistance Level
$79.19
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.04
Wall Street Target
$77.75
(+1.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
23.6%
Profit Margin
19.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.0 vs 19.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$74.80
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$73.15
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$71.54
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→19)
$76.55
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 6.9%)
$104.44
(+37%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.0, Growth: 6.9%)
$93.40
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.3, Growth: 6.9%)
$79.39
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.83 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.06
Bull Case
$87.81
(+15%)
Analyst growth 4.4%, PE expands to 20.7
Base Case
$79.83
(+4%)
Market implied 4.4%, PE stable at 18.8
Bear Case
$51.98
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.0 to 19.3
Stabilization Target:
$81.83
(+7.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 10:15 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:15 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:15 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MGEE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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