MGE Energy (MGEE) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MGEE - MGE Energy Inc
$74.24
2.23 (3.10%)
▲
5d:
+4.15%
30d:
+4.77%
90d:
-9.92%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
11d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MGEE shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MGEE shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$99.92
Based on 4.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$62.04
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MGEE is currently trading at $74.24, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $69.64 to $73.67. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.7) is in line with its historical norms (19.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 23.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGEE is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $74.53. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGEE is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $74.53. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$69.64 -
$73.67
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.0%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (50/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.1%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($76.83)
- WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$69.64 -
$73.67
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$69.86
Resistance Level
$74.53
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.68
Wall Street Target
$76.83
(+3.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
23.6%
Profit Margin
19.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.7 vs 19.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$72.53
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$70.86
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$69.23
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→19)
$74.42
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 5.2%)
$97.22
(+31%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.7, Growth: 5.2%)
$86.53
(+17%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.0, Growth: 5.2%)
$73.55
(-1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.69 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.07
Bull Case
$81.74
(+10%)
Analyst growth 3.2%, PE expands to 19.5
Base Case
$74.31
(+0%)
Market implied 3.2%, PE stable at 17.7
Bear Case
$48.97
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.7 to 19.0
Stabilization Target:
$79.80
(+7.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 7:46 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:46 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:46 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MGEE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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