Markel Group (MKL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MKL - Markel Group Inc.
$1871.94
-12.16 (-0.65%)
▼
5d:
+4.16%
30d:
+6.16%
90d:
-4.57%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
12d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MKL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MKL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$3103.16
Based on 10.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$1926.82
2.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MKL is currently trading at $1871.94, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $1729.83 to $1821.86. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.4) is in line with its historical norms (16.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MKL is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $1891.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MKL scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MKL is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $1891.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MKL scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$1729.83 -
$1821.86
Company Quality Score
28/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
24.8%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($1951.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 28/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$1729.83 -
$1821.86
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$1722.08
Resistance Level
$1891.00
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.38
Wall Street Target
$1951.50
(+4.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
86.8%
Profit Margin
13.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.2% premium
PE vs Historical
16.4 vs 16.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$1875.68
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$1879.44
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$1883.19
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$1874.15
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 17.7%)
$3700.00
(+98%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.4, Growth: 17.7%)
$3051.41
(+63%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.9, Growth: 17.7%)
$2593.69
(+39%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 10.23 | Current EPS (TTM): $184.20
Bull Case
$1285.95
(-31%)
Analyst growth -38.0%, PE expands to 11.3
Base Case
$1169.04
(-38%)
Market implied -38.0%, PE stable at 10.2
Bear Case
$1281.19
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 7:41 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:41 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:41 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MKL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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