Markel Group (MKL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MKL - Markel Group Inc.
$1726.11
13.66 (0.80%)
▲
5d:
-0.53%
30d:
-3.96%
90d:
-12.81%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MKL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MKL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$3223.57
Based on 12.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$2001.58
13.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MKL is currently trading at $1726.11, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $1748.22 to $1815.43. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.3) is in line with its historical norms (16.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 86.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MKL is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $1704.17. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1956.33 (+13.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MKL is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $1704.17. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1956.33 (+13.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$1748.22 -
$1815.43
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (44/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($1956.33)
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$1748.22 -
$1815.43
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$1704.17
Resistance Level
$1794.00
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.28
Wall Street Target
$1956.33
(+13.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
86.8%
Profit Margin
13.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.3 vs 16.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$1688.14
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$1651.00
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$1614.67
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→16)
$1722.02
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 20.0%)
$3985.46
(+131%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.3, Growth: 20.0%)
$2985.95
(+73%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.0, Growth: 20.0%)
$2538.05
(+47%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 9.45 | Current EPS (TTM): $181.14
Bull Case
$1174.44
(-32%)
Analyst growth -37.7%, PE expands to 10.4
Base Case
$1067.67
(-38%)
Market implied -37.7%, PE stable at 9.5
Bear Case
$1164.46
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.3 to 16.3
Stabilization Target:
$1840.87
(+6.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 12:06 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:06 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:06 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MKL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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