Mueller Industries (MLI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MLI - Mueller Industries, Inc.
$54.11
-0.42 (-0.77%)
▼
5d:
-9.92%
30d:
-9.85%
90d:
-15.68%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MLI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MLI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$99.58
Based on 8.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$61.83
12.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MLI is currently trading at $54.11, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $58.15 to $62.08. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.6) compared to its historical average (14.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 6.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MLI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $53.65. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MLI scores 32/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $78.00 (+44.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MLI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $53.65. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MLI scores 32/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $78.00 (+44.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$58.15 -
$62.08
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (32/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 44.2% below Wall St target ($78.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$58.15 -
$62.08
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$53.65
Resistance Level
$61.90
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.64
Wall Street Target
$78.00
(+44.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
31.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.4%
Profit Margin
17.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.6 vs 14.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$50.16
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$46.50
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$43.10
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→15)
$54.08
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 12.0%)
$129.91
(+140%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.6, Growth: 12.0%)
$76.12
(+41%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.9, Growth: 12.0%)
$64.70
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.74 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.70
Bull Case
$75.38
(+39%)
Analyst growth 25.7%, PE expands to 16.2
Base Case
$68.53
(+27%)
Market implied 25.7%, PE stable at 14.7
Bear Case
$37.08
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.6 to 14.6
Stabilization Target:
$67.89
(+25.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+25.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 11:48 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:48 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:48 AM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is MLI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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