Mueller Industries (MLI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MLI - Mueller Industries, Inc.
$62.56
1.24 (2.02%)
â˛
5d:
+3.37%
30d:
+0.79%
90d:
+10.06%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
15d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: MLI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.9% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: MLI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.9% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$78.90
Based on 4.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$48.99
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MLI is currently trading at $62.56, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $60.05 to $62.95. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.3) is in line with its historical norms (14.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MLI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $63.16. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MLI scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $80.00 (+27.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MLI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $63.16. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MLI scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $80.00 (+27.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$60.05 -
$62.95
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.9% below Wall St target ($80.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$60.05 -
$62.95
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$59.49
Resistance Level
$63.16
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.28
Wall Street Target
$80.00
(+27.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
25.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1.8%
Profit Margin
18.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.3 vs 14.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$62.00
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$61.44
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$60.89
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14â15)
$62.66
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 4.3%)
$101.34
(+62%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.3, Growth: 4.3%)
$70.95
(+13%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.1, Growth: 4.3%)
$60.31
(-4%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.76 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.89
Bull Case
$75.95
(+21%)
Analyst growth 12.6%, PE expands to 17.3
Base Case
$69.04
(+10%)
Market implied 12.6%, PE stable at 15.8
Bear Case
$41.70
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.3 to 14.7
Stabilization Target:
$64.39
(+2.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 10:38 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:38 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:38 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MLI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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