MPTI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MPTI - M-tron Industries, Inc.
$81.94
-5.89 (-6.71%)
▼
5d:
-9.87%
30d:
-12.71%
90d:
+21.28%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 11, 2026
27d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MPTI is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: MPTI is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$153.79
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$95.49
14.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MPTI is currently trading at $81.94, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $88.36 to $97.69. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 23.3) is in line with its historical norms (22.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPTI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $83.78. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPTI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $83.78. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$88.36 -
$97.69
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-6.7%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($84.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -9.9% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$88.36 -
$97.69
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$83.78
Resistance Level
$96.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.34
Wall Street Target
$84.00
(+2.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
19.6%
Profit Margin
16.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.2% premium
PE vs Historical
23.3 vs 22.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$82.92
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$83.92
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$84.93
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→23)
PE COMPRESSION
$81.85
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.3, Growth: 32.0%)
$188.27
(+130%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 32.0%)
$175.65
(+114%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 32.0%)
$149.30
(+82%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 33.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.64
Bull Case
$128.45
(+57%)
Analyst growth 33.0%, PE expands to 36.6
Base Case
$116.77
(+43%)
Market implied 33.0%, PE stable at 33.3
Bear Case
$59.72
(-27%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 28.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 3:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MPTI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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