M-tron Industries (MPTI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MPTI - M-tron Industries, Inc.
$65.21
-0.53 (-0.81%)
▼
5d:
-1.81%
30d:
-12.65%
90d:
-23.58%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 11, 2026
17d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MPTI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MPTI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$104.93
Based on 9.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$65.15
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MPTI is currently trading at $65.21, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $68.51 to $76.33. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.4) is in line with its historical norms (23.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPTI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $64.38. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MPTI scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $89.00 (+36.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPTI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $64.38. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MPTI scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $89.00 (+36.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$68.51 -
$76.33
Company Quality Score
37/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (36/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 36.5% below Wall St target ($89.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 37/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$68.51 -
$76.33
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$64.38
Resistance Level
$72.00
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.37
Wall Street Target
$89.00
(+36.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-18.9%
Profit Margin
16.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.4 vs 23.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$64.36
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$63.53
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$62.70
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→23)
$65.30
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 14.3%)
$97.41
(+49%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 14.3%)
$86.48
(+33%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 14.3%)
$73.51
(+13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 27.17 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.42
Bull Case
$87.11
(+34%)
Analyst growth 20.5%, PE expands to 29.9
Base Case
$79.19
(+21%)
Market implied 20.5%, PE stable at 27.2
Bear Case
$44.70
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.4 to 23.3
Stabilization Target:
$67.92
(+4.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 24, 2026 12:05 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:05 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:05 AM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is MPTI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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