Materion (MTRN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

MTRN - Materion Corporation

METAL FORGINGS & STAMPINGS
$257.51
5.84 (2.32%) ▲
5d: +7.05%
30d: -9.09%
90d: +4.68%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MTRN trades at premium valuation expecting 5.7% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$369.99
Based on 12.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$229.73
Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: MTRN is currently trading at $257.51, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $233.64 to $277.56. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 30.5) compared to its historical average (25.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, MTRN is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $261.24. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 58/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $303.75 (+18.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position FAIR
Historical Trading Range $233.64 - $277.56
Company Quality Score 55/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 69.0%

All Signals

  • NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
  • NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (58/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($303.75)
  • NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.7% growth which is achievable
  • NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (58/100) — watch for confirmation

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $233.64 - $277.56
Current vs Trading Range FAIR

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $225.89
Resistance Level $261.24
Current Trend Uptrend
Technical data as of Sep 11, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 30.53
Wall Street Target $303.75 (+18.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 42.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY) 52.1%
Profit Margin 4.3%
Valuation Premium vs History +5.7% premium
PE vs Historical 30.5 vs 25.9 STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): +5.7% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $272.19 (+6%)
2-Year Target $287.70 (+12%)
3-Year Target $304.10 (+18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 31→26) PE COMPRESSION $257.94 (+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 30.5, Growth: 20.1%) $446.45 (+73%)
Base: (SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 20.1%) $294.91 (+15%)
Bear: (PE: 17.1, Growth: 20.1%) $250.67 (-3%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 29.50 | Forward EPS (Implied): $8.73
Bull Case $310.94 (+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 31.0
Base Case $257.51 (0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 29.5
Bear Case $197.00 (-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 26.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Last updated: September 12, 2026 6:27 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:27 AM
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
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Net
NEUTRAL

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