NBTB Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NBTB - NBT Bancorp Inc
$52.65
-0.28 (-0.53%)
▼
5d:
+0.52%
30d:
+4.78%
90d:
+20.51%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 26, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NBTB trades at premium valuation expecting 5.1% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: NBTB trades at premium valuation expecting 5.1% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$61.57
Based on 6.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$38.23
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NBTB is currently trading at $52.65, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $49.55 to $52.64. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.6) compared to its historical average (10.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NBTB is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $50.74, while resistance sits at $54.50.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NBTB is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $50.74, while resistance sits at $54.50.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$49.55 -
$52.64
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
46.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($53.83)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 5.1% growth expectation is conservative given 132% recent growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$49.55 -
$52.64
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$50.74
Resistance Level
$54.50
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.63
Wall Street Target
$53.83
(+2.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
131.8%
Profit Margin
29.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.1% premium
PE vs Historical
11.6 vs 10.0
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$55.34
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$58.16
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$61.12
(+16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$52.57
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 8.7%)
$120.53
(+129%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.6, Growth: 8.7%)
$67.59
(+28%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.9, Growth: 8.7%)
$57.46
(+9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.23 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.00
Bull Case
$65.92
(+25%)
Analyst growth 13.2%, PE expands to 14.6
Base Case
$59.92
(+14%)
Market implied 13.2%, PE stable at 13.2
Bear Case
$35.99
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 10:30 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:30 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:30 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NBTB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Amy Wiles
SELL
4435 shares
2026-02-17
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