NBT Bancorp (NBTB) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$53.41
-0.23 (-0.43%)
▼
5d:
+1.52%
30d:
+5.99%
90d:
+0.0%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (47%)
Quality Score
45/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$50.59 – $53.12
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
11.8x
FAIR
vs 10.4x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$57.17
+7.0% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$51.48 / $55.35
Trend: Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NBTB shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$63.33
Based on 6.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$39.32
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NBTB is currently trading at $53.41, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $50.59 to $53.12. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.8) compared to its historical average (10.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NBTB is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $51.48, while resistance sits at $55.35.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NBTB is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $51.48, while resistance sits at $55.35.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$50.59 -
$53.12
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
47.1%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$50.59 -
$53.12
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$51.48
Resistance Level
$55.35
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (42/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($57.17)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 45/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.79
Wall Street Target
$57.17
(+7.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
7.8%
Profit Margin
29.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.2% premium
PE vs Historical
11.8 vs 10.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$55.65
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$57.99
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$60.43
(+13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$53.32
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 8.2%)
$113.95
(+113%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.8, Growth: 8.2%)
$67.63
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.0, Growth: 8.2%)
$57.48
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.86 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.17
Bull Case
$64.12
(+20%)
Analyst growth 8.7%, PE expands to 14.2
Base Case
$58.29
(+9%)
Market implied 8.7%, PE stable at 12.9
Bear Case
$36.48
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (NBTB)
Bullish
1 Retail Mentions
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
May 24, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
A bullish StockTwits message indicates positive sentiment towards $NBTB, with no recent Yahoo Finance news articles available.
Key Retail Themes:
Bullish sentiment
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 8:34 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:34 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:34 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NBTB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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