NBT Bancorp (NBTB) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NBTB - NBT Bancorp Inc
$51.73
0.11 (0.21%)
▲
5d:
+0.19%
30d:
-3.15%
90d:
+8.52%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 26, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NBTB is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: NBTB is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$63.15
Based on 6.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$39.21
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NBTB is currently trading at $51.73, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $51.29 to $53.07. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.4) compared to its historical average (10.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NBTB is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $52.42. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NBTB is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $52.42. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$51.29 -
$53.07
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (57/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($56.83)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (57/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$51.29 -
$53.07
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$50.05
Resistance Level
$52.42
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.39
Wall Street Target
$56.83
(+9.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
131.8%
Profit Margin
29.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.7% premium
PE vs Historical
11.4 vs 10.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$53.64
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$55.63
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$57.69
(+12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$51.67
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 8.8%)
$118.05
(+128%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.4, Growth: 8.8%)
$66.65
(+29%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.7, Growth: 8.8%)
$56.65
(+10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.44 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.15
Bull Case
$62.16
(+20%)
Analyst growth 9.5%, PE expands to 13.7
Base Case
$56.51
(+9%)
Market implied 9.5%, PE stable at 12.4
Bear Case
$35.10
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 2:01 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:01 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:01 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NBTB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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