NBTB Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NBTB - NBT Bancorp Inc
$48.10
0.81 (1.71%)
▲
5d:
+1.46%
30d:
+4.88%
90d:
+14.55%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 27, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NBTB is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: NBTB is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$60.67
Based on 6.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$37.67
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NBTB is currently trading at $48.10, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $45.35 to $47.40. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.6) is in line with its historical norms (9.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NBTB is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $47.72. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NBTB is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $47.72. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$45.35 -
$47.40
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
47.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($48.92)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$45.35 -
$47.40
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$44.74
Resistance Level
$47.72
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.59
Wall Street Target
$48.92
(+1.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
27.3%
Profit Margin
26.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.4% premium
PE vs Historical
10.6 vs 9.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$49.25
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$50.44
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$51.65
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$47.80
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 8.8%)
$127.47
(+165%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.6, Growth: 8.8%)
$61.97
(+29%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.0, Growth: 8.8%)
$52.67
(+10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.36 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.54
Bull Case
$66.76
(+39%)
Analyst growth 28.3%, PE expands to 14.7
Base Case
$60.69
(+26%)
Market implied 28.3%, PE stable at 13.4
Bear Case
$32.16
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 6:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:06 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:06 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NBTB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Amy Wiles
SELL
4435 shares
2026-02-17
Timothy E Delaney
BUY
22730 shares
2026-01-28
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