Northern Trust (NTRS) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NTRS - Northern Trust Corp
$171.40
2.20 (1.30%)
▲
5d:
-2.46%
30d:
-6.84%
90d:
-5.38%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
17d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NTRS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: NTRS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$349.46
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$216.99
21.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NTRS is currently trading at $171.40, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $174.18 to $186.62. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.6) is in line with its historical norms (14.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 98.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NTRS is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $166.16, while resistance sits at $179.85.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 58/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NTRS is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $166.16, while resistance sits at $179.85.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 58/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$174.18 -
$186.62
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding NTRS? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (58/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($184.58)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (58/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$174.18 -
$186.62
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$166.16
Resistance Level
$179.85
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.56
Wall Street Target
$184.58
(+7.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
36.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
98.6%
Profit Margin
24.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.6 vs 14.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$169.00
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$166.63
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$164.30
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→14)
$172.02
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 33.6%)
$260.42
(+52%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.6, Growth: 33.6%)
$173.13
(+1%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.5, Growth: 33.6%)
$147.16
(-14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.24 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.88
Bull Case
$197.99
(+16%)
Analyst growth 6.4%, PE expands to 15.7
Base Case
$179.99
(+5%)
Market implied 6.4%, PE stable at 14.2
Bear Case
$115.06
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.6 to 14.2
Stabilization Target:
$179.46
(+4.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 3:03 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:03 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:03 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NTRS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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