NVR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NVR - NVR, Inc.
$6428.98
76.43 (1.20%)
▲
5d:
+1.48%
30d:
+6.3%
90d:
-1.56%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
28d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NVR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: NVR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$10811.60
Based on 10.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6713.16
4.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NVR is currently trading at $6428.98, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5940.40 to $6396.93. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.1) is in line with its historical norms (15.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVR is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $6447.38. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NVR has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7132.00 (+12.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVR is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $6447.38. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NVR has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7132.00 (+12.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$5940.40 -
$6396.93
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($7132.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$5940.40 -
$6396.93
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5946.16
Resistance Level
$6447.38
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.12
Wall Street Target
$7132.00
(+12.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-21.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-28.5%
Profit Margin
12.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.1 vs 15.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6244.56
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$6138.40
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$6034.05
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→16)
$6344.00
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 16.4%)
$14416.60
(+127%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.1, Growth: 16.4%)
$10010.30
(+58%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.9, Growth: 16.4%)
$8508.76
(+34%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.85 | Current EPS (TTM): $409.58
Bull Case
$7322.64
(+15%)
Analyst growth 2.6%, PE expands to 17.4
Base Case
$6656.94
(+5%)
Market implied 2.6%, PE stable at 15.9
Bear Case
$4413.84
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.1 to 15.9
Stabilization Target:
$6678.87
(+5.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 3:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:25 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:25 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NVR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-20
Maria Elvira Salazar
BUY
2026-03-19
Susan Williamson Ross
SELL
200 shares
2026-02-13
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