NVR (NVR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NVR - NVR, Inc.
$6160.76
72.48 (1.19%)
▲
5d:
-3.34%
30d:
-2.12%
90d:
-4.92%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NVR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NVR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$9980.37
Based on 9.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6197.03
0.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NVR is currently trading at $6160.76, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6225.13 to $6400.37. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.0) is in line with its historical norms (15.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVR is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $6057.84. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NVR scores 34/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6782.00 (+10.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVR is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $6057.84. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NVR scores 34/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6782.00 (+10.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$6225.13 -
$6400.37
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (34/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($6782.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$6225.13 -
$6400.37
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$6057.84
Resistance Level
$6462.63
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.97
Wall Street Target
$6782.00
(+10.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-10.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-22.6%
Profit Margin
11.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.0 vs 15.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6049.87
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$5940.97
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$5834.03
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→16)
$6158.74
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 14.0%)
$12297.71
(+100%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.0, Growth: 14.0%)
$9125.40
(+48%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.7, Growth: 14.0%)
$7756.59
(+26%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.08 | Current EPS (TTM): $378.69
Bull Case
$7279.54
(+18%)
Analyst growth 8.7%, PE expands to 17.7
Base Case
$6617.76
(+7%)
Market implied 8.7%, PE stable at 16.1
Bear Case
$4140.03
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.0 to 15.8
Stabilization Target:
$6503.66
(+5.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 1:25 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:25 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:25 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NVR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-20
Maria Elvira Salazar
BUY
2026-03-19
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