NVR (NVR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NVR - NVR, Inc.
$6126.38
-28.01 (-0.46%)
▼
5d:
-1.75%
30d:
-2.38%
90d:
-9.25%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
25d
Get Alerted When NVR Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NVR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NVR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$9137.61
Based on 7.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5673.73
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NVR is currently trading at $6126.38, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6169.02 to $6354.35. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.3) is in line with its historical norms (15.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVR is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $5961.85. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NVR scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVR is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $5961.85. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NVR scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$6169.02 -
$6354.35
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (38/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($6717.80)
- WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$6169.02 -
$6354.35
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5961.85
Resistance Level
$6383.30
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.29
Wall Street Target
$6717.80
(+9.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-10.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-22.6%
Profit Margin
11.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.3 vs 15.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6065.12
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$6004.47
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$5944.42
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→16)
$6141.75
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 11.3%)
$11259.34
(+84%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.3, Growth: 11.3%)
$8440.28
(+38%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.0, Growth: 11.3%)
$7174.24
(+17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.21 | Current EPS (TTM): $379.73
Bull Case
$7142.22
(+17%)
Analyst growth 5.5%, PE expands to 17.8
Base Case
$6492.92
(+6%)
Market implied 5.5%, PE stable at 16.2
Bear Case
$4184.99
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.3 to 15.8
Stabilization Target:
$6329.75
(+3.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 4:54 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:54 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:54 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is NVR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Residential Construction Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Residential Construction by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
TOL
Toll Brothers Inc |
BUY
19 analysts |
$171 | 52 HOLD |
|
DHI
DR Horton Inc |
HOLD
21 analysts |
$159 | 52 HOLD |
|
PHM
PulteGroup Inc |
BUY
17 analysts |
$141 | 53 HOLD |
|
LEN
Lennar Corporation |
SELL
21 analysts |
$80 | 60 HOLD |
|
TMHC
Taylor Morn Home |
STRONG BUY
10 analysts |
$67 | 49 HOLD |
