NVR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NVR - NVR, Inc.
$6147.05
-141.63 (-2.25%)
▼
5d:
-4.17%
30d:
-7.48%
90d:
-2.67%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NVR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NVR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$10043.54
Based on 9.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6236.25
1.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NVR is currently trading at $6147.05, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6317.20 to $6719.92. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.9) is in line with its historical norms (15.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVR is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $5919.25, while resistance sits at $6574.99.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6782.00 (+10.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVR is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $5919.25, while resistance sits at $6574.99.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6782.00 (+10.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$6317.20 -
$6719.92
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($6782.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$6317.20 -
$6719.92
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5919.25
Resistance Level
$6574.99
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.93
Wall Street Target
$6782.00
(+10.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-10.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-22.6%
Profit Margin
11.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.9 vs 15.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6024.11
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$5903.63
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$5785.55
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→16)
$6159.93
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 14.0%)
$12639.15
(+106%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.9, Growth: 14.0%)
$9105.10
(+48%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.7, Growth: 14.0%)
$7739.33
(+26%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.58 | Current EPS (TTM): $379.21
Bull Case
$7508.83
(+22%)
Analyst growth 8.5%, PE expands to 18.2
Base Case
$6826.21
(+11%)
Market implied 8.5%, PE stable at 16.6
Bear Case
$4276.29
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.9 to 15.9
Stabilization Target:
$6544.82
(+6.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 8:35 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:35 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:35 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NVR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-20
Maria Elvira Salazar
BUY
2026-03-19
Susan Williamson Ross
SELL
200 shares
2026-02-13
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