NVR (NVR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$6036.42
-301.96 (-4.76%)
âŧ
5d:
+0.19%
30d:
+4.98%
90d:
-4.09%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (66%)
Quality Score
44/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$5801.94 â $6186.90
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
17.4x
FAIR
vs 15.8x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$6229.67
+3.2% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$5734.01 / $6554.36
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: NVR is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 3.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$6483.84
Based on 3.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4025.96
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NVR is currently trading at $6036.42, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5801.94 to $6186.90. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 17.4) compared to its historical average (15.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVR is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $5734.01, while resistance sits at $6554.36. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 40/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVR is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $5734.01, while resistance sits at $6554.36. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 40/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$5801.94 -
$6186.90
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
66.2%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$5801.94 -
$6186.90
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support Level
$5734.01
Resistance Level
$6554.36
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.8%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($6229.67)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.3% growth with -8.2% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.43
Wall Street Target
$6229.67
(+3.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-8.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-20.4%
Profit Margin
11.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.3% premium
PE vs Historical
17.4 vs 15.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6235.62
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$6441.40
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$6653.96
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17â16)
PE COMPRESSION
$6032.49
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 2.9%)
$7501.47
(+24%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.4, Growth: 2.9%)
$6582.77
(+9%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.8, Growth: 2.9%)
$5595.35
(-7%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.52 | Current EPS (TTM): $361.76
Bull Case
$6675.59
(+11%)
Analyst growth -4.3%, PE expands to 19.3
Base Case
$6068.72
(+1%)
Market implied -4.3%, PE stable at 17.5
Bear Case
$4310.11
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (NVR)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 3, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
StockTwits shows bullish sentiment towards $NVR as the open price equals the low. No recent news articles were found.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 9:18 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:18 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:18 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NVR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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