NVR (NVR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NVR - NVR, Inc.
$5892.59
-7.41 (-0.13%)
▼
5d:
-0.81%
30d:
-5.59%
90d:
-8.14%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
5d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NVR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NVR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
NVR is flagged by 1 backtest-validated scanner today
SPY Bullish (stocks from this scanner have beaten SPY by a median 0.37% over the next 20 trading days; NVR has been on it 3 days). Backtested on 8 months of scanner history vs the S&P 500, as of 2026-10-21.
See all of today's Best Signals in the free scanner →Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$8540.49
Based on 6.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5302.97
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NVR is currently trading at $5892.59, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5882.85 to $6241.67. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.0) is in line with its historical norms (15.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVR is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $5616.77, while resistance sits at $6117.39.
Market Sentiment: NVR scores 79/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVR is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $5616.77, while resistance sits at $6117.39.
Market Sentiment: NVR scores 79/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$5882.85 -
$6241.67
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
85.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (79/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($6395.33)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 79/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$5882.85 -
$6241.67
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5616.78
Resistance Level
$6117.39
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.02
Wall Street Target
$6395.33
(+8.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-10.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-22.6%
Profit Margin
11.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.0 vs 15.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5811.50
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$5724.33
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$5638.46
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→16)
$5892.67
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 9.5%)
$10230.55
(+73%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.0, Growth: 9.5%)
$7738.70
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.8, Growth: 9.5%)
$6577.89
(+12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.53 | Current EPS (TTM): $384.93
Bull Case
$6708.81
(+14%)
Analyst growth 2.0%, PE expands to 17.1
Base Case
$6098.92
(+3%)
Market implied 2.0%, PE stable at 15.5
Bear Case
$4064.81
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.0 to 15.7
Stabilization Target:
$6166.00
(+4.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 10:08 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:08 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:08 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NVR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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