NVR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NVR - NVR, Inc.
$6437.99
-41.40 (-0.64%)
▼
5d:
-3.82%
30d:
+2.11%
90d:
-4.62%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
7d
Get Alerted When NVR Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NVR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NVR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$10811.60
Based on 10.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6713.16
4.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NVR is currently trading at $6437.99, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6293.53 to $6709.62. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.3) is in line with its historical norms (15.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVR is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $6447.38. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7132.00 (+10.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVR is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $6447.38. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7132.00 (+10.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$6293.53 -
$6709.62
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($7132.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$6293.53 -
$6709.62
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5946.16
Resistance Level
$6447.38
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.33
Wall Street Target
$7132.00
(+10.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-21.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-28.5%
Profit Margin
12.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.3 vs 15.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6360.73
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$6284.41
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$6208.99
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→16)
$6441.30
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 16.4%)
$14416.60
(+124%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.3, Growth: 16.4%)
$10144.94
(+58%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.0, Growth: 16.4%)
$8623.20
(+34%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.82 | Current EPS (TTM): $409.50
Bull Case
$7311.04
(+14%)
Analyst growth 2.6%, PE expands to 17.4
Base Case
$6646.40
(+3%)
Market implied 2.6%, PE stable at 15.8
Bear Case
$4405.99
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.3 to 15.9
Stabilization Target:
$6678.87
(+3.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 7:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:06 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:06 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is NVR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-20
Maria Elvira Salazar
BUY
2026-03-19
Susan Williamson Ross
SELL
200 shares
2026-02-13
Top Rated Residential Construction Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Residential Construction by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
TOL
Toll Brothers Inc |
BUY
19 analysts |
$165 | 63 BUY |
|
DHI
DR Horton Inc |
HOLD
21 analysts |
$168 | 58 HOLD |
|
PHM
PulteGroup Inc |
BUY
17 analysts |
$139 | 57 HOLD |
|
TMHC
Taylor Morn Home |
STRONG BUY
10 analysts |
$66 | 57 HOLD |
|
LEN
Lennar Corporation |
SELL
21 analysts |
$89 | 55 HOLD |
