What is the fair value of OKTA stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for OKTA to be between $191.10 and $218.47. The current price is $208.64.

What is the analyst price target for OKTA?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for OKTA is $212.83. This implies a potential upside of 2.0% from current levels.

Okta (OKTA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

OKTA - Okta, Inc. Class A Common Stock

SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE

$208.64

14.62 (7.54%) ▲

5d: -1.55%

30d: +6.11%

90d: +53.3%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Dec 01, 2026

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 14, 2026 at $211.91 · last confirmed Oct 20, 2026

Strength: 7.1/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Bottom Line:
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: OKTA is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 21.2% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 6.8%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$119.45

Based on 5.4% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$74.17

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: OKTA is currently trading at $208.64, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $191.10 to $218.47. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 56.8) compared to its historical average (31.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 21.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, OKTA is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $183.60, while resistance sits at $235.00. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 7.5% recently.

Market Sentiment: OKTA scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position FAIR

Historical Trading Range $191.10 - $218.47

Company Quality Score 41/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 49.0%

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All Signals

NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (30/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+7.5%)
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($212.83)
NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 21.2% growth which is achievable
WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $191.10 - $218.47

Current vs Trading Range FAIR

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $183.60

Resistance Level $235.00

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Oct 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 56.79

Wall Street Target $212.83 (+2.0%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 10.6%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 75.7%

Profit Margin 9.6%

Valuation Premium vs History +21.2% premium

PE vs Historical 56.8 vs 31.9 STRETCHED

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +21.2% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $252.87 (+21%)

2-Year Target $306.48 (+47%)

3-Year Target $371.45 (+78%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 57→32) PE COMPRESSION $208.65 (0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 56.8, Growth: 6.8%) $253.87 (+22%)

Base: (SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 6.8%) $88.78 (-57%)

Bear: (PE: 16.9, Growth: 6.8%) $75.46 (-64%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

Forward PE: 54.35 | Forward EPS (Implied): $3.84

Bull Case $251.93 (+21%)

Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 57.1

Base Case $208.64 (0%)

Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 54.4

Bear Case $159.61 (-24%)

Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 48.9

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: October 21, 2026 11:28 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:28 AM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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