Old Republic International (ORI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ORI - Old Republic International Corporation
$40.96
0.12 (0.29%)
▲
5d:
-3.78%
30d:
-3.56%
90d:
+7.2%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ORI is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: ORI is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$58.70
Based on 8.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$36.45
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ORI is currently trading at $40.96, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $41.40 to $42.90. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.4) is in line with its historical norms (12.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORI is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $40.25. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 46/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORI is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $40.25. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 46/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$41.40 -
$42.90
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (46/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($43.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (46/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$41.40 -
$42.90
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$40.25
Resistance Level
$43.02
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.41
Wall Street Target
$43.50
(+6.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
61.7%
Profit Margin
11.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.9% premium
PE vs Historical
12.4 vs 12.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$41.33
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$41.70
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$42.08
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$41.02
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 12.1%)
$93.81
(+129%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.4, Growth: 12.1%)
$57.73
(+41%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.6, Growth: 12.1%)
$49.07
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 8.96 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.56
Bull Case
$32.51
(-21%)
Analyst growth -27.6%, PE expands to 9.9
Base Case
$29.56
(-28%)
Market implied -27.6%, PE stable at 9.0
Bear Case
$27.77
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 12:05 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:05 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:05 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ORI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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