ORI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ORI - Old Republic International Corporation
$41.58
-0.22 (-0.53%)
âŧ
5d:
-2.96%
30d:
+0.63%
90d:
+4.87%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ORI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.5% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ORI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.5% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$58.22
Based on 8.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$36.15
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ORI is currently trading at $41.58, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $41.62 to $43.49. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.6) is in line with its historical norms (12.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORI is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $41.55. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ORI scores 39/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORI is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $41.55. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ORI scores 39/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$41.62 -
$43.49
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
46.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (39/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($43.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$41.62 -
$43.49
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$41.56
Resistance Level
$43.14
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.60
Wall Street Target
$43.50
(+4.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
61.7%
Profit Margin
11.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.5% premium
PE vs Historical
12.6 vs 12.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$42.20
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$42.84
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$43.48
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13â12)
PE COMPRESSION
$41.41
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 12.1%)
$93.35
(+125%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.6, Growth: 12.1%)
$58.60
(+41%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.7, Growth: 12.1%)
$49.81
(+20%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 9.19 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.55
Bull Case
$33.35
(-20%)
Analyst growth -27.5%, PE expands to 10.1
Base Case
$30.32
(-27%)
Market implied -27.5%, PE stable at 9.2
Bear Case
$28.42
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 10:22 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:22 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:22 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ORI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
John Eric Smith
BUY
1135 shares
2026-03-02
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