Old Republic International (ORI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ORI - Old Republic International Corporation
$38.01
0.52 (1.39%)
▲
5d:
+0.72%
30d:
-9.69%
90d:
-8.56%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
19d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ORI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ORI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$58.70
Based on 8.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$36.45
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ORI is currently trading at $38.01, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $38.54 to $42.02. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.4) is in line with its historical norms (12.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 61.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORI is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $37.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.50 (+16.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORI is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $37.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.50 (+16.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$38.54 -
$42.02
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (53/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($43.50)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (53/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$38.54 -
$42.02
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$37.06
Resistance Level
$40.36
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.36
Wall Street Target
$43.50
(+16.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
61.7%
Profit Margin
11.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.4 vs 12.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.74
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$36.01
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$35.29
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→12)
$37.58
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 12.1%)
$94.88
(+153%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.4, Growth: 12.1%)
$52.84
(+41%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.7, Growth: 12.1%)
$44.91
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 8.18 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.56
Bull Case
$29.70
(-21%)
Analyst growth -27.6%, PE expands to 9.0
Base Case
$27.00
(-28%)
Market implied -27.6%, PE stable at 8.2
Bear Case
$25.37
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.4 to 12.1
Stabilization Target:
$39.93
(+6.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 1:32 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:32 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:32 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ORI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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