ADVANCE AUTO PARTS (AAP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AAP - ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC
$46.69
2.17 (4.87%)
▲
5d:
+6.31%
30d:
+13.6%
90d:
-16.33%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
12d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AAP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AAP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$107.64
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$66.84
30.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AAP is currently trading at $46.69, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $40.07 to $43.93. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.0) compared to its historical average (14.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 260.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAP is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $46.78. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: AAP scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAP is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $46.78. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: AAP scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$40.07 -
$43.93
Company Quality Score
33/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
23.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AAP? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.3% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (5/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.9%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($49.95)
- WARNING: Composite score 33/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$40.07 -
$43.93
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$40.67
Resistance Level
$46.78
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.99
Wall Street Target
$49.95
(+7.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
260.0%
Profit Margin
1.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.0 vs 14.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$44.12
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$41.70
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$39.40
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→14)
$46.65
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 30.2%)
$170.73
(+266%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.0, Growth: 30.2%)
$103.11
(+121%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.2, Growth: 30.2%)
$87.65
(+88%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.73 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.80
Bull Case
$97.94
(+110%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 27.2
Base Case
$89.04
(+91%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 24.7
Bear Case
$30.27
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.0 to 14.2
Stabilization Target:
$55.28
(+18.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+18.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 10:23 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:23 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:23 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AAP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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