AAP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AAP - ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC
$55.31
-2.64 (-4.56%)
▼
5d:
-1.81%
30d:
-6.82%
90d:
+1.32%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 13, 2026
30d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 10.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AAP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AAP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$118.67
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$73.68
24.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AAP is currently trading at $55.31, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $56.05 to $61.23. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.8) is in line with its historical norms (15.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAP is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $54.35. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAP is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $54.35. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$56.05 -
$61.23
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.6%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($60.37)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$56.05 -
$61.23
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$54.35
Resistance Level
$63.20
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.80
Wall Street Target
$60.37
(+9.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-2.5%
Profit Margin
0.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.8 vs 15.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$53.54
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$51.83
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$50.17
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→15)
$55.27
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 36.4%)
$221.59
(+301%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.8, Growth: 36.4%)
$140.36
(+154%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.7, Growth: 36.4%)
$119.31
(+116%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (49x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 49.11 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.12
Bull Case
$121.00
(+109%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 54.0
Base Case
$110.00
(+90%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 49.1
Bear Case
$37.40
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 41.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.8 to 15.2
Stabilization Target:
$60.94
(+10.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 5:43 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:43 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:43 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AAP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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