Is AAP stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, AAP is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: AAP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of AAP stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for AAP to be between $53.74 and $57.83. The current price is $57.36.

What is the analyst price target for AAP?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for AAP is $60.11. This implies a potential upside of 4.8% from current levels.

AAP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

AAP - ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC

RETAIL-AUTO & HOME SUPPLY STORES

$57.36

3.84 (7.17%) ▲

5d: -0.97%

30d: +10.12%

90d: +16.44%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

Protect Your AAP Gains

Analysis Updated: Aug 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Aug 20, 2026 5d

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 6, 2026 at $57.80 · last confirmed Aug 12, 2026

Strength: 8.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AAP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$117.85

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$73.18

21.6% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.1x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: AAP is currently trading at $57.36, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $53.74 to $57.83. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.3) is in line with its historical norms (15.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, AAP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $51.97, while resistance sits at $60.27. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 7.2% recently.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 56/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY HIGH

Historical Trading Range $53.74 - $57.83

Company Quality Score 58/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 65.2%

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All Signals

NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (56/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+7.2%)
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($60.11)
NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (56/100) — watch for confirmation

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $53.74 - $57.83

Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY HIGH

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $51.97

Resistance Level $60.28

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Aug 13, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 14.31

Wall Street Target $60.11 (+4.8%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 1.2%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -2.5%

Profit Margin 0.5%

Valuation Discount vs History -1.7% cheaper

PE vs Historical 14.3 vs 15.1 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -1.7% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $56.38 (-2%)

2-Year Target $55.43 (-3%)

3-Year Target $54.48 (-5%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 14→15) $57.48 (+0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.2, Growth: 36.4%) $205.83 (+259%)

Base: (SPY PE: 14.3, Growth: 36.4%) $145.61 (+154%)

Bear: (PE: 12.2, Growth: 36.4%) $123.77 (+116%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (47x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 47.36 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.13

Bull Case $117.74 (+105%)

Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 52.1

Base Case $107.04 (+87%)

Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 47.4

Bear Case $36.39 (-37%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 40.3

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.3 to 15.1

Stabilization Target: $60.52 (+5.5%)

PE Expansion Potential: +5.5%

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Last updated: August 13, 2026 11:02 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:02 AM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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