ADVANCE AUTO PARTS (AAP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$45.69
-0.19 (-0.41%)
▼
5d:
-9.97%
30d:
+9.1%
90d:
-20.35%
Open in Live Scanner
70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
0d
Protect AAP Gains
Updated Nov 11, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence (45%)
Quality Score
53/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$42.22 – $47.25
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
13.0x
FAIR
vs 14.1x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$48.45
+6.0% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$44.07 / $51.04
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 HOLD: AAP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Nov 6, 2026 at $45.50 · last confirmed Nov 9, 2026
Strength: 4.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$86.82
Based on 12.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$53.91
15.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AAP is currently trading at $45.69, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $42.22 to $47.25. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.0) is in line with its historical norms (14.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 260.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAP is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $44.07, while resistance sits at $51.04.
Market Sentiment: AAP scores 39/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAP is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $44.07, while resistance sits at $51.04.
Market Sentiment: AAP scores 39/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$42.22 -
$47.25
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
45.2%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$42.22 -
$47.25
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support Level
$44.07
Resistance Level
$51.04
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding AAP? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (39/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($48.45)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-10.0%) - monitor closely
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.02
Wall Street Target
$48.45
(+6.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
260.0%
Profit Margin
1.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.0 vs 14.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$44.50
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$43.35
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$42.22
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→14)
$45.71
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 20.1%)
$120.79
(+164%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.0, Growth: 20.1%)
$79.20
(+73%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.1, Growth: 20.1%)
$67.32
(+47%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.60 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.03
Bull Case
$87.23
(+91%)
Analyst growth 72.8%, PE expands to 24.9
Base Case
$79.30
(+74%)
Market implied 72.8%, PE stable at 22.6
Bear Case
$31.20
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.0 to 14.1
Stabilization Target:
$49.47
(+8.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.3%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (AAP)
Bearish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 5, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Advance Auto Parts (AAP) reported lower than expected sales in Q3 2026, while Adjusted EPS came in slightly above estimates. The company also lowered its full-year adjusted EPS guidance.
Key Retail Themes:
Sales miss
Earnings guidance
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 3:15 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:15 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:15 AM
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Technical Signals Check
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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