Par Pacific (PARR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PARR - Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$80.18
-4.52 (-5.34%)
âŧ
5d:
-4.25%
30d:
+4.17%
90d:
+3.61%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
10d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: PARR is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -17.0% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: PARR is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -17.0% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$61.15
Based on -14.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$37.97
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PARR is currently trading at $80.18, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $79.68 to $86.77. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.8) compared to its historical average (8.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 17.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 699.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PARR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $79.57. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: PARR scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $95.14 (+18.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PARR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $79.57. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: PARR scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $95.14 (+18.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$79.68 -
$86.77
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
50.0%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($95.14)
- WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$79.68 -
$86.77
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$79.57
Resistance Level
$90.74
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.82
Wall Street Target
$95.14
(+18.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
56.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
699.1%
Profit Margin
9.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-17.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.8 vs 8.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-17.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$72.16
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$64.95
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$58.45
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5â8)
$101.86
(+27%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -32.5%)
$240.83
(+200%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.8, Growth: -32.5%)
$58.45
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.1, Growth: -32.5%)
$49.68
(-38%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (5x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 4.94 | Current EPS (TTM): $17.13
Bull Case
$90.47
(+13%)
Analyst growth -2.9%, PE expands to 5.4
Base Case
$82.25
(+3%)
Market implied -2.9%, PE stable at 4.9
Bear Case
$57.60
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.8 to 8.4
Stabilization Target:
$139.73
(+74.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+74.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 5:14 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:14 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:14 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PARR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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