Par Pacific (PARR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PARR - Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$84.00
-2.21 (-2.56%)
âŧ
5d:
+8.44%
30d:
+4.79%
90d:
+38.29%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: PARR is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -13.1% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: PARR is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -13.1% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$52.78
Based on -15.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$32.77
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PARR is currently trading at $84.00, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $77.21 to $84.04. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.7) compared to its historical average (8.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 13.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 699.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PARR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $74.22, while resistance sits at $87.00.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 56/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PARR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $74.22, while resistance sits at $87.00.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 56/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$77.21 -
$84.04
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (56/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($85.86)
- WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$77.21 -
$84.04
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$74.23
Resistance Level
$87.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.66
Wall Street Target
$85.86
(+2.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
56.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
699.1%
Profit Margin
9.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-13.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.7 vs 8.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-13.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$75.60
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$68.04
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$61.24
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6â9)
$93.05
(+11%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: -34.2%)
$220.73
(+163%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.7, Growth: -34.2%)
$61.24
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.8, Growth: -34.2%)
$52.05
(-38%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 4.79 | Current EPS (TTM): $17.04
Bull Case
$72.92
(-15%)
Analyst growth -18.8%, PE expands to 5.3
Base Case
$66.29
(-23%)
Market implied -18.8%, PE stable at 4.8
Bear Case
$55.50
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.7 to 8.6
Stabilization Target:
$127.64
(+52.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+52.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 5:46 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:46 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:46 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PARR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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