PARR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PARR - Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$70.92
5.14 (7.81%)
▲
5d:
+16.76%
30d:
+23.06%
90d:
+12.98%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
20d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: PARR is 17.3% above its trading range ($60.46). Market expects -9.4% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: PARR is 17.3% above its trading range ($60.46). Market expects -9.4% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$41.11
Based on -14.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$25.52
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PARR is currently trading at $70.92, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $52.07 to $60.46. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.9) compared to its historical average (9.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 3869.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PARR is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $59.08. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 7.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PARR is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $59.08. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 7.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$52.07 -
$60.46
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
41.4%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+17.3% above its trading range)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+7.8%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($77.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$52.07 -
$60.46
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$54.13
Resistance Level
$59.08
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.88
Wall Street Target
$77.00
(+8.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3869.2%
Profit Margin
6.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.9 vs 9.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$64.25
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$58.21
(-18%)
3-Year Target
$52.74
(-26%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→9)
$71.26
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -33.1%)
$163.59
(+131%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.9, Growth: -33.1%)
$51.70
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.9, Growth: -33.1%)
$43.95
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.45 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.83
Bull Case
$84.43
(+19%)
Analyst growth 16.7%, PE expands to 8.2
Base Case
$76.75
(+8%)
Market implied 16.7%, PE stable at 7.5
Bear Case
$44.73
(-37%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.9 to 9.3
Stabilization Target:
$95.82
(+35.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+35.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 11:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:36 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:36 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PARR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
William Monteleone
SELL
108948 shares
2026-03-16
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