PARR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PARR - Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$86.03
0.12 (0.14%)
▲
5d:
+11.16%
30d:
+46.31%
90d:
+31.0%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
TODAY
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: PARR is 13.5% above its trading range ($75.77). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: PARR is 13.5% above its trading range ($75.77). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$49.81
Based on -12.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$30.93
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PARR is currently trading at $86.03, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $55.22 to $75.77. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.6) compared to its historical average (9.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 3869.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PARR is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $87.03. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PARR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PARR is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $87.03. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PARR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$55.22 -
$75.77
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
47.6%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+13.5% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($83.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$55.22 -
$75.77
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$74.81
Resistance Level
$87.03
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.58
Wall Street Target
$83.00
(-3.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3869.2%
Profit Margin
6.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.6 vs 9.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$80.87
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$76.02
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$71.46
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$85.75
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: -29.5%)
$171.44
(+99%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.6, Growth: -29.5%)
$62.72
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.4, Growth: -29.5%)
$53.31
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.73 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.83
Bull Case
$121.41
(+41%)
Analyst growth 28.5%, PE expands to 10.7
Base Case
$110.38
(+28%)
Market implied 28.5%, PE stable at 9.7
Bear Case
$58.42
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.6 to 9.1
Stabilization Target:
$103.24
(+20.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 2:36 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:36 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:36 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is PARR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
William Monteleone
SELL
108948 shares
2026-03-16
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