Par Pacific (PARR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PARR - Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$84.65
1.06 (1.27%)
▲
5d:
+3.26%
30d:
+8.83%
90d:
+52.85%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PARR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PARR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$37.22
Based on -17.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.11
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PARR is currently trading at $84.65, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $73.24 to $82.72. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.2) compared to its historical average (8.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 699.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PARR is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $86.97. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PARR scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PARR is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $86.97. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PARR scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$73.24 -
$82.72
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
23.8%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($83.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$73.24 -
$82.72
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$76.26
Resistance Level
$86.97
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.16
Wall Street Target
$83.00
(-1.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
56.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
699.1%
Profit Margin
9.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.2 vs 8.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$78.81
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$73.37
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$68.31
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→9)
$84.87
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: -38.7%)
$173.76
(+105%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.2, Growth: -38.7%)
$61.71
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.1, Growth: -38.7%)
$52.45
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 4.91 | Current EPS (TTM): $17.04
Bull Case
$63.77
(-25%)
Analyst growth -30.7%, PE expands to 5.4
Base Case
$57.97
(-32%)
Market implied -30.7%, PE stable at 4.9
Bear Case
$56.84
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.2 to 8.9
Stabilization Target:
$105.17
(+24.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+24.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 11:29 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:29 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:29 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PARR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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