PARR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PARR - Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$50.70
-0.35 (-0.69%)
▼
5d:
-5.2%
30d:
-12.28%
90d:
-11.36%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PARR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: PARR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$47.23
Based on -12.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$29.32
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PARR is currently trading at $50.70, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $53.07 to $58.81. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.1) compared to its historical average (9.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 19.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 3869.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PARR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $54.13. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PARR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $75.00 (+47.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PARR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $54.13. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PARR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $75.00 (+47.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$53.07 -
$58.81
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 47.9% below Wall St target ($75.00)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-5.2%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$53.07 -
$58.81
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$54.13
Resistance Level
$59.08
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.07
Wall Street Target
$75.00
(+47.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3869.2%
Profit Margin
6.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-19.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.1 vs 9.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-19.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$45.63
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$41.07
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$36.96
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→10)
$70.00
(+38%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -28.9%)
$158.81
(+213%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.1, Growth: -28.9%)
$36.96
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.3, Growth: -28.9%)
$31.42
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (6x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 5.78 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.83
Bull Case
$63.61
(+26%)
Analyst growth 13.3%, PE expands to 6.4
Base Case
$57.83
(+14%)
Market implied 13.3%, PE stable at 5.8
Bear Case
$34.71
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.1 to 9.6
Stabilization Target:
$96.02
(+89.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+89.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 9:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:37 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is PARR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
William Monteleone
SELL
108948 shares
2026-03-16
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