PFS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PFS - Provident Financial Services, Inc.
$23.51
-0.02 (-0.08%)
▼
5d:
-0.42%
30d:
+1.69%
90d:
+6.62%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
15d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PFS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.4% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PFS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.4% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$28.06
Based on 5.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.42
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PFS is currently trading at $23.51, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.83 to $23.64. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.3) is in line with its historical norms (8.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PFS is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $23.42. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PFS is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $23.42. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$22.83 -
$23.64
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($25.75)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$22.83 -
$23.64
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$21.51
Resistance Level
$23.42
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.35
Wall Street Target
$25.75
(+9.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
24.2%
Profit Margin
34.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.4% premium
PE vs Historical
9.4 vs 8.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.07
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$24.65
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$25.24
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$23.49
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 6.2%)
$65.60
(+179%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.3, Growth: 6.2%)
$28.16
(+20%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.9, Growth: 6.2%)
$23.93
(+2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.01 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.35
Bull Case
$27.70
(+18%)
Analyst growth 7.0%, PE expands to 11.0
Base Case
$25.18
(+7%)
Market implied 7.0%, PE stable at 10.0
Bear Case
$16.00
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 6:21 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:21 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:21 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PFS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Christopher P Martin
SELL
1050 shares
2026-02-05
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