Provident Financial Services (PFS) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PFS - Provident Financial Services, Inc.
$22.54
0.01 (0.04%)
▲
5d:
+2.64%
30d:
-0.49%
90d:
-5.13%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
5d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PFS shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PFS shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$28.40
Based on 4.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.63
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PFS is currently trading at $22.54, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.09 to $22.91. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.7) is in line with its historical norms (8.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 9.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PFS is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $22.70. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PFS scores 71/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.75 (+23.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PFS is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $22.70. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PFS scores 71/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.75 (+23.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$22.09 -
$22.91
Company Quality Score
69/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (71/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.1% below Wall St target ($27.75)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 71/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$22.09 -
$22.91
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$21.67
Resistance Level
$22.71
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.73
Wall Street Target
$27.75
(+23.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.0%
Profit Margin
35.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.7 vs 8.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$22.47
(0%)
2-Year Target
$22.40
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$22.34
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
$22.53
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 5.1%)
$59.54
(+164%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.7, Growth: 5.1%)
$26.16
(+16%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.4, Growth: 5.1%)
$22.23
(-1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.55 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.36
Bull Case
$27.13
(+20%)
Analyst growth 9.5%, PE expands to 10.5
Base Case
$24.66
(+9%)
Market implied 9.5%, PE stable at 9.6
Bear Case
$15.32
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.7 to 8.8
Stabilization Target:
$22.73
(+0.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 9:36 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:36 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:36 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PFS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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