Provident Financial Services (PFS) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PFS - Provident Financial Services, Inc.
$22.35
0.20 (0.90%)
▲
5d:
-1.41%
30d:
-2.83%
90d:
-5.06%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PFS shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PFS shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$28.71
Based on 4.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.83
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PFS is currently trading at $22.35, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.65 to $23.54. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.6) is in line with its historical norms (8.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 9.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PFS is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $21.66, while resistance sits at $23.22.
Market Sentiment: PFS scores 9/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.92 (+24.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PFS is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $21.66, while resistance sits at $23.22.
Market Sentiment: PFS scores 9/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.92 (+24.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$22.65 -
$23.54
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (9/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.9% below Wall St target ($27.92)
- WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$22.65 -
$23.54
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$21.66
Resistance Level
$23.22
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.62
Wall Street Target
$27.92
(+24.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.0%
Profit Margin
35.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.6 vs 8.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$22.17
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$21.99
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$21.82
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
$22.28
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 5.4%)
$61.98
(+177%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.6, Growth: 5.4%)
$26.18
(+17%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.3, Growth: 5.4%)
$22.26
(0%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.39
Bull Case
$26.44
(+18%)
Analyst growth 8.5%, PE expands to 10.2
Base Case
$24.03
(+8%)
Market implied 8.5%, PE stable at 9.3
Bear Case
$15.06
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.6 to 8.8
Stabilization Target:
$22.82
(+2.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 5:33 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:33 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:33 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PFS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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