Pinnacle West Capital (PNW) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PNW - Pinnacle West Capital Corporation
$95.84
1.21 (1.28%)
▲
5d:
+4.47%
30d:
-1.58%
90d:
-10.35%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 02, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PNW shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: PNW shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$180.55
Based on 11.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$112.11
14.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PNW is currently trading at $95.84, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $93.20 to $97.84. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.8) is in line with its historical norms (18.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PNW is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $94.89. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PNW scores 74/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $104.36 (+10.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PNW is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $94.89. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PNW scores 74/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $104.36 (+10.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$93.20 -
$97.84
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding PNW? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (74/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($104.36)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 15% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$93.20 -
$97.84
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$90.27
Resistance Level
$94.89
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.78
Wall Street Target
$104.36
(+10.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-9.5%
Profit Margin
11.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.8 vs 18.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$91.70
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$88.85
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$86.10
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→18)
$94.42
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 19.7%)
$197.43
(+109%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.8, Growth: 19.7%)
$162.38
(+72%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.3, Growth: 19.7%)
$138.02
(+46%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.86 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.21
Bull Case
$110.79
(+17%)
Analyst growth 8.3%, PE expands to 19.6
Base Case
$100.72
(+6%)
Market implied 8.3%, PE stable at 17.9
Bear Case
$63.27
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.8 to 18.4
Stabilization Target:
$103.78
(+9.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 10:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PNW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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