PNW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PNW - Pinnacle West Capital Corporation
$100.99
-0.33 (-0.33%)
▼
5d:
-4.78%
30d:
-5.0%
90d:
-2.63%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
TODAY
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PNW shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PNW shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$184.14
Based on 11.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$114.33
11.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PNW is currently trading at $100.99, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $104.06 to $108.54. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.9) is in line with its historical norms (18.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 0.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PNW is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $100.29. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PNW is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $100.29. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$104.06 -
$108.54
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($105.79)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$104.06 -
$108.54
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$100.29
Resistance Level
$108.67
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.88
Wall Street Target
$105.79
(+4.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
0.6%
Profit Margin
12.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.9 vs 18.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$99.48
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$97.98
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$96.51
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→19)
$100.93
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 19.8%)
$201.11
(+99%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.9, Growth: 19.8%)
$173.49
(+72%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.2, Growth: 19.8%)
$147.46
(+46%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.08 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.31
Bull Case
$118.54
(+17%)
Analyst growth 6.4%, PE expands to 21.0
Base Case
$107.76
(+7%)
Market implied 6.4%, PE stable at 19.1
Bear Case
$68.90
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.9 to 18.7
Stabilization Target:
$105.61
(+4.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 9:49 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:49 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:49 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PNW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PNW price and gamma walls.
