What is the fair value of PRCH stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for PRCH to be between $16.08 and $17.53. The current price is $16.45.

What is the analyst price target for PRCH?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for PRCH is $20.50. This implies a potential upside of 24.6% from current levels.

Porch Group (PRCH) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

PRCH - Porch Group, Inc. Common Stock

SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE

$16.45

0.16 (0.98%) ▲

5d: -8.91%

30d: +1.79%

90d: +69.24%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 04, 2026

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 4, 2026 at $17.94 · last confirmed Sep 9, 2026

Strength: 7.2/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: PRCH is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -6.6% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$11.81

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$7.33

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: PRCH is currently trading at $16.45, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.08 to $17.53. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 67.8) compared to its historical average (83.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 155.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, PRCH is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $15.90, while resistance sits at $18.37.

Market Sentiment: PRCH scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.50 (+24.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY LOW

Historical Trading Range $16.08 - $17.53

Company Quality Score 47/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 57.1%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 24.6% below Wall St target ($20.50)
WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $16.08 - $17.53

Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY LOW

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $15.90

Resistance Level $18.37

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Sep 11, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 67.84

Wall Street Target $20.50 (+24.6%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 11.7%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 155.3%

Profit Margin -2.6%

Valuation Discount vs History -6.6% cheaper

PE vs Historical 67.8 vs 83.2 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -6.6% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $15.36 (-7%)

2-Year Target $14.35 (-13%)

3-Year Target $13.40 (-19%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 68→83) $16.44 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 67.8, Growth: 203.1%) $55.52 (+238%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 203.1%) $16.51 (+0%)

Bear: (PE: 17.1, Growth: 203.1%) $14.03 (-15%)

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 67.8 to 83.2

Stabilization Target: $20.18 (+22.7%)

PE Expansion Potential: +22.7%

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Last updated: September 12, 2026 8:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:37 PM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

Sells

Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Matthew Neagle SELL 62801 shares 2026-04-21

Shawn Tabak SELL 7730 shares 2026-04-21

Matt Ehrlichman SELL 121242 shares 2026-04-21

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Advanced PRCH Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PRCH price and gamma walls.

Iron Condor Bull Call Bear Put Collar

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