PZZA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PZZA - Papa John's International Inc
$23.94
0.62 (2.66%)
▲
5d:
-1.32%
30d:
-21.12%
90d:
-26.9%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PZZA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: PZZA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$38.30
Based on 8.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.78
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PZZA is currently trading at $23.94, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.80 to $32.45. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.5) is in line with its historical norms (19.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PZZA is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $22.77, while resistance sits at $24.98.
Market Sentiment: PZZA scores 80/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.67 (+22.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PZZA is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $22.77, while resistance sits at $24.98.
Market Sentiment: PZZA scores 80/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.67 (+22.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$24.80 -
$32.45
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding PZZA? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (80/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.9% below Wall St target ($28.67)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 21% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$24.80 -
$32.45
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$22.77
Resistance Level
$24.98
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.51
Wall Street Target
$28.67
(+22.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-8.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-14.3%
Profit Margin
1.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.5 vs 19.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$22.57
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$21.85
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$21.15
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→19)
$23.31
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 12.7%)
$38.24
(+64%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.5, Growth: 12.7%)
$33.37
(+43%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.9, Growth: 12.7%)
$28.36
(+22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.09 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.80
Bull Case
$42.61
(+78%)
Analyst growth 66.5%, PE expands to 32.0
Base Case
$38.74
(+62%)
Market implied 66.5%, PE stable at 29.1
Bear Case
$15.82
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.5 to 19.3
Stabilization Target:
$25.70
(+10.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 11:50 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:50 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:50 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is PZZA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PZZA price and gamma walls.
