Papa John's International (PZZA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$19.98
-0.77 (-3.71%)
âŧ
5d:
+7.65%
30d:
+1.58%
90d:
-17.06%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (36%)
Quality Score
45/100
Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
30-Day Fair Range
$18.57 â $19.82
Position: SLIGHTLY HIGH
Forward P/E & Valuation
17.9x
FAIR
vs 18.4x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$23.50
+17.6% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$17.98 / $20.94
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: PZZA is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.9% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Nov 9, 2026 at $20.84 · last confirmed Nov 9, 2026
Strength: 6.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.99
Based on 5.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.76
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PZZA is currently trading at $19.98, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.57 to $19.82. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.9) is in line with its historical norms (18.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PZZA is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $17.98, while resistance sits at $20.94. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: PZZA scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.50 (+17.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PZZA is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $17.98, while resistance sits at $20.94. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: PZZA scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.50 (+17.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$18.57 -
$19.82
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
35.7%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$18.57 -
$19.82
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support Level
$17.98
Resistance Level
$20.94
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding PZZA? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (38/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.7%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($23.50)
- WARNING: Composite score 45/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.88
Wall Street Target
$23.50
(+17.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-10.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-30.8%
Profit Margin
1.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.9 vs 18.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$19.80
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$19.62
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$19.45
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18â18)
$20.01
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 7.2%)
$27.33
(+37%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.9, Growth: 7.2%)
$24.61
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.2, Growth: 7.2%)
$20.92
(+5%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.94 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.80
Bull Case
$31.88
(+60%)
Analyst growth 39.6%, PE expands to 28.5
Base Case
$28.98
(+45%)
Market implied 39.6%, PE stable at 25.9
Bear Case
$14.11
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.9 to 18.4
Stabilization Target:
$20.56
(+2.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.9%
Share PZZA Analysis
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (PZZA)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 5, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Bearish sentiment prevails on StockTwits regarding $PZZA, as one user expresses disapproval of certain board members and calls for action. No recent news articles available.
Key Retail Themes:
Negative sentiment towards certain board members
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 10, 2026 9:20 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:20 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:20 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PZZA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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