Papa John's International (PZZA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PZZA - Papa John's International Inc
$20.56
-0.90 (-4.19%)
▼
5d:
-8.82%
30d:
-14.65%
90d:
-36.43%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Sep 4, 2026 at $22.68 · last confirmed Sep 9, 2026
Strength: 8.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PZZA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PZZA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$38.10
Based on 8.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.66
13.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PZZA is currently trading at $20.56, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.69 to $26.45. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.1) compared to its historical average (19.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PZZA is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $20.53. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: PZZA scores 17/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.67 (+33.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PZZA is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $20.53. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: PZZA scores 17/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.67 (+33.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$21.69 -
$26.45
Company Quality Score
40/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding PZZA? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (17/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading 33.6% below Wall St target ($28.67)
- WARNING: Composite score 40/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$21.69 -
$26.45
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.53
Resistance Level
$23.88
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.11
Wall Street Target
$28.67
(+33.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-8.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-14.3%
Profit Margin
1.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.1 vs 19.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.26
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$19.12
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$18.05
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→19)
$21.51
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 12.7%)
$38.43
(+79%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.1, Growth: 12.7%)
$30.71
(+43%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.7, Growth: 12.7%)
$26.10
(+22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 27.04 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.80
Bull Case
$39.61
(+85%)
Analyst growth 66.5%, PE expands to 29.7
Base Case
$36.01
(+68%)
Market implied 66.5%, PE stable at 27.0
Bear Case
$14.71
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.1 to 19.2
Stabilization Target:
$25.57
(+19.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+19.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 11, 2026 4:21 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:21 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:21 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PZZA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced PZZA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PZZA price and gamma walls.
