RLI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RLI - RLI Corp.
$61.46
0.81 (1.34%)
▲
5d:
-0.52%
30d:
+13.94%
90d:
+5.97%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
7d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: RLI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.2% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: RLI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.2% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$108.96
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$67.66
9.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RLI is currently trading at $61.46, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $52.55 to $60.11. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.2) is in line with its historical norms (20.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RLI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $53.42. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: RLI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RLI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $53.42. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: RLI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$52.55 -
$60.11
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($59.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.2% growth with 4.0% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$52.55 -
$60.11
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$48.89
Resistance Level
$53.42
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.19
Wall Street Target
$59.00
(-4.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-12.2%
Profit Margin
20.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.2% premium
PE vs Historical
22.2 vs 20.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$63.43
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$65.46
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$67.55
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→20)
PE COMPRESSION
$61.50
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.2, Growth: 91.1%)
$63.15
(+3%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 91.1%)
$61.99
(+1%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 91.1%)
$52.69
(-14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 14.14 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.29
Bull Case
$43.08
(-30%)
Analyst growth -35.4%, PE expands to 15.6
Base Case
$39.16
(-36%)
Market implied -35.4%, PE stable at 14.1
Bear Case
$41.24
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 10:50 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:50 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:50 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RLI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Craig W Kliethermes
BUY
5000 shares
2026-01-23
Jennifer L Klobnak
BUY
2000 shares
2026-01-23
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