RLI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RLI - RLI Corp.
$61.24
0.01 (0.02%)
▲
5d:
-1.1%
30d:
+0.96%
90d:
+18.29%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 19, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: RLI is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: RLI is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$52.96
Based on -0.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$32.88
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RLI is currently trading at $61.24, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $56.82 to $62.71. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 22.7) compared to its historical average (20.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RLI is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $56.61, while resistance sits at $66.91.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RLI is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $56.61, while resistance sits at $66.91.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$56.82 -
$62.71
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
47.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($60.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$56.82 -
$62.71
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$56.61
Resistance Level
$66.91
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.72
Wall Street Target
$60.50
(-1.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
35.8%
Profit Margin
22.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.7% premium
PE vs Historical
22.7 vs 20.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$63.51
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$65.86
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$68.29
(+12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→20)
PE COMPRESSION
$61.02
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.7, Growth: -5.2%)
$52.16
(+-15%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: -5.2%)
$47.60
(-22%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: -5.2%)
$40.46
(-34%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 12.86 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.76
Bull Case
$38.14
(-38%)
Analyst growth -43.4%, PE expands to 14.2
Base Case
$34.68
(-43%)
Market implied -43.4%, PE stable at 12.9
Bear Case
$41.64
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 1:01 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:01 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:01 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RLI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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