RLI (RLI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RLI - RLI Corp.
$60.48
0.04 (0.07%)
▲
5d:
-5.56%
30d:
-3.89%
90d:
+11.73%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 19, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: RLI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: RLI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$54.00
Based on -0.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$33.53
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RLI is currently trading at $60.48, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $62.03 to $64.95. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.4) is in line with its historical norms (20.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RLI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $59.79. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: RLI scores 24/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RLI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $59.79. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: RLI scores 24/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$62.03 -
$64.95
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (24/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($60.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$62.03 -
$64.95
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$59.79
Resistance Level
$65.06
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.44
Wall Street Target
$60.50
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
35.8%
Profit Margin
22.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.7% premium
PE vs Historical
22.4 vs 20.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$62.11
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$63.79
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$65.51
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→21)
PE COMPRESSION
$60.44
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: -5.2%)
$51.51
(+-15%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: -5.2%)
$46.31
(-23%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: -5.2%)
$39.37
(-35%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 12.86 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.70
Bull Case
$38.13
(-37%)
Analyst growth -42.6%, PE expands to 14.2
Base Case
$34.67
(-43%)
Market implied -42.6%, PE stable at 12.9
Bear Case
$41.10
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 3:22 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:22 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:22 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RLI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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