RLI (RLI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RLI - RLI Corp.
$56.18
0.87 (1.57%)
▲
5d:
+0.05%
30d:
-11.32%
90d:
-10.14%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 19, 2026
16d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: RLI is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: RLI is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$54.26
Based on -0.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$33.69
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RLI is currently trading at $56.18, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $57.39 to $63.87. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 20.8) is in line with its historical norms (20.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RLI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $54.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: RLI scores 61/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RLI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $54.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: RLI scores 61/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$57.39 -
$63.87
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
86.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (61/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($60.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 24% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$57.39 -
$63.87
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$54.50
Resistance Level
$59.91
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.84
Wall Street Target
$60.50
(+7.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
35.8%
Profit Margin
22.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.1% premium
PE vs Historical
20.8 vs 20.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$56.24
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$56.29
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$56.35
(+0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→21)
PE COMPRESSION
$56.24
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.8, Growth: -5.2%)
$47.85
(+-15%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: -5.2%)
$46.84
(-17%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: -5.2%)
$39.81
(-29%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 11.62 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.76
Bull Case
$34.46
(-39%)
Analyst growth -43.4%, PE expands to 12.8
Base Case
$31.32
(-44%)
Market implied -43.4%, PE stable at 11.6
Bear Case
$37.61
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 8:32 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:32 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:32 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RLI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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