RLI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RLI - RLI Corp.
$53.84
1.10 (2.09%)
▲
5d:
+0.47%
30d:
+1.57%
90d:
-6.61%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 20, 2026
25d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: RLI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: RLI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$64.23
Based on 2.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$39.88
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RLI is currently trading at $53.84, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $51.10 to $53.61. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.4) is in line with its historical norms (20.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RLI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $53.42. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: RLI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RLI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $53.42. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: RLI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$51.10 -
$53.61
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($57.75)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$51.10 -
$53.61
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$48.89
Resistance Level
$53.42
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.39
Wall Street Target
$57.75
(+7.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-12.2%
Profit Margin
20.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.4 vs 20.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$53.19
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$52.56
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$51.92
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→20)
$53.83
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 1.7%)
$63.67
(+18%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.4, Growth: 1.7%)
$56.68
(+5%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.5, Growth: 1.7%)
$48.17
(-11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 12.29 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.29
Bull Case
$37.55
(-30%)
Analyst growth -35.3%, PE expands to 13.5
Base Case
$34.14
(-37%)
Market implied -35.3%, PE stable at 12.3
Bear Case
$35.86
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.4 to 20.1
Stabilization Target:
$55.82
(+3.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 9:44 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:44 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:44 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is RLI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Craig W Kliethermes
BUY
5000 shares
2026-01-23
Jennifer L Klobnak
BUY
2000 shares
2026-01-23
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