RLI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RLI - RLI Corp.
$65.38
0.28 (0.43%)
▲
5d:
+2.52%
30d:
+6.9%
90d:
+23.34%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 19, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: RLI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: RLI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$53.48
Based on -0.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$33.21
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RLI is currently trading at $65.38, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $60.70 to $64.63. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 24.2) compared to its historical average (20.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RLI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $66.03. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 46/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RLI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $66.03. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 46/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$60.70 -
$64.63
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
42.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (46/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($60.50)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.7% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$60.70 -
$64.63
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$62.41
Resistance Level
$66.03
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.25
Wall Street Target
$60.50
(-7.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
35.8%
Profit Margin
22.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.7% premium
PE vs Historical
24.3 vs 20.5
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$69.11
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$73.05
(+12%)
3-Year Target
$77.21
(+18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→21)
PE COMPRESSION
$65.26
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.3, Growth: -5.2%)
$55.69
(+-15%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: -5.2%)
$46.08
(-30%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: -5.2%)
$39.17
(-40%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 13.51 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.82
Bull Case
$40.05
(-39%)
Analyst growth -44.1%, PE expands to 14.9
Base Case
$36.41
(-44%)
Market implied -44.1%, PE stable at 13.5
Bear Case
$44.27
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 2:11 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:11 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:11 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RLI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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