RLI (RLI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RLI - RLI Corp.
$65.21
1.31 (2.05%)
▲
5d:
+9.63%
30d:
+14.71%
90d:
+5.31%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 19, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: RLI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: RLI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$37.68
Based on -7.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.40
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RLI is currently trading at $65.21, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $55.76 to $60.30. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 23.8) compared to its historical average (20.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RLI is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $64.52. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: RLI scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $56.25. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RLI is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $64.52. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: RLI scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $56.25. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$55.76 -
$60.30
Company Quality Score
32/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
17.6%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+8.1% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (20/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 12.0% above Wall St target ($56.25)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 4.5% growth with -6.3% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 32/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$55.76 -
$60.30
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$55.23
Resistance Level
$64.52
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.77
Wall Street Target
$56.25
(-12.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-6.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-35.0%
Profit Margin
20.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.5% premium
PE vs Historical
23.8 vs 20.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$66.78
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$69.78
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$72.92
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→21)
PE COMPRESSION
$63.82
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.8, Growth: -18.5%)
$46.58
(+-27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: -18.5%)
$38.93
(-39%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: -18.5%)
$33.09
(-48%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 13.17 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.76
Bull Case
$38.96
(-39%)
Analyst growth -43.5%, PE expands to 14.5
Base Case
$35.42
(-45%)
Market implied -43.5%, PE stable at 13.2
Bear Case
$42.64
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 10:02 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:02 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:02 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RLI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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