Southern First Bancshares (SFST) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SFST - Southern First Bancshares, Inc.
$63.12
-0.30 (-0.47%)
▼
5d:
+0.37%
30d:
-1.53%
90d:
+2.62%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SFST is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.8% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: SFST is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.8% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$113.02
Based on 13.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$70.18
10.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SFST is currently trading at $63.12, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $62.10 to $63.96. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.2) is in line with its historical norms (9.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SFST is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $64.40. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SFST is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $64.40. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$62.10 -
$63.96
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($68.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (55/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$62.10 -
$63.96
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$60.48
Resistance Level
$64.40
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.22
Wall Street Target
$68.50
(+8.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
24.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
48.1%
Profit Margin
30.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.8% premium
PE vs Historical
10.2 vs 9.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$64.26
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$65.41
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$66.59
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$63.19
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 23.5%)
$234.61
(+272%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.2, Growth: 23.5%)
$118.90
(+88%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.7, Growth: 23.5%)
$101.06
(+60%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.38 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.74
Bull Case
$90.88
(+44%)
Analyst growth 30.3%, PE expands to 14.7
Base Case
$82.62
(+31%)
Market implied 30.3%, PE stable at 13.4
Bear Case
$43.13
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 5:12 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:12 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:12 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SFST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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