Southern First Bancshares (SFST) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SFST - Southern First Bancshares, Inc.
$60.85
0.97 (1.62%)
▲
5d:
+0.38%
30d:
-2.75%
90d:
-0.64%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
22d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SFST is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: SFST is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$113.02
Based on 13.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$70.18
13.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SFST is currently trading at $60.85, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $60.27 to $62.87. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.8) is in line with its historical norms (9.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SFST is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $62.47. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SFST scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $68.50 (+12.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SFST is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $62.47. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SFST scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $68.50 (+12.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$60.27 -
$62.87
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
89.0%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($68.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 17% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$60.27 -
$62.87
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$58.21
Resistance Level
$62.47
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.85
Wall Street Target
$68.50
(+12.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
24.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
48.1%
Profit Margin
30.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.5% premium
PE vs Historical
9.9 vs 9.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$61.15
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$61.46
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$61.77
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$60.80
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 23.5%)
$237.28
(+290%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.9, Growth: 23.5%)
$114.62
(+88%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.4, Growth: 23.5%)
$97.43
(+60%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.88 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.65
Bull Case
$87.47
(+44%)
Analyst growth 32.8%, PE expands to 14.2
Base Case
$79.52
(+31%)
Market implied 32.8%, PE stable at 12.9
Bear Case
$40.72
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 04, 2026 2:26 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:26 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:26 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SFST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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