Southern First Bancshares (SFST) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SFST - Southern First Bancshares, Inc.
$61.20
-0.04 (-0.07%)
▼
5d:
+2.32%
30d:
+1.73%
90d:
-0.63%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
1d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SFST shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.7% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SFST shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.7% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$113.50
Based on 13.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$70.47
13.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SFST is currently trading at $61.20, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $59.61 to $61.05. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.9) is in line with its historical norms (9.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SFST is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $62.30. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SFST scores 66/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $68.75 (+12.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SFST is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $62.30. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SFST scores 66/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $68.75 (+12.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$59.61 -
$61.05
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (66/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($68.75)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 66/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$59.61 -
$61.05
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$58.88
Resistance Level
$62.30
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.91
Wall Street Target
$68.75
(+12.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
19.6%
Profit Margin
32.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.7% premium
PE vs Historical
9.9 vs 9.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$61.63
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$62.06
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$62.49
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$61.16
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 23.7%)
$232.39
(+280%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.9, Growth: 23.7%)
$115.97
(+90%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.4, Growth: 23.7%)
$98.58
(+61%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.63 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.85
Bull Case
$85.77
(+40%)
Analyst growth 27.3%, PE expands to 13.9
Base Case
$77.97
(+27%)
Market implied 27.3%, PE stable at 12.6
Bear Case
$41.64
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 25, 2026 12:56 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:56 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:56 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SFST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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