What is the fair value of SGML stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for SGML to be between $10.65 and $12.40. The current price is $9.50.

What is the analyst price target for SGML?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for SGML is $19.75. This implies a potential upside of 107.9% from current levels.

SGML Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

SGML - Sigma Lithium Corporation Common Shares

Metal Mining

$9.50

-0.57 (-5.66%) ▼

5d: -25.61%

30d: -19.63%

90d: -35.51%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Aug 14, 2026 0d

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 4, 2026 at $12.39 · last confirmed Sep 10, 2026

Strength: 8.1/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: SGML is down 25.6% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$72.82

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$45.22

79.0% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.7x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: SGML is currently trading at $9.50, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.65 to $12.40. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.5) compared to its historical average (21.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 36.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 135.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, SGML is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.49. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.7% recently.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.75 (+107.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $10.65 - $12.40

Company Quality Score 47/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 74.8%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (50/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.7%)
BULLISH: Trading 107.9% below Wall St target ($19.75)
WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $10.65 - $12.40

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $9.49

Resistance Level $13.17

Current Trend Strong Downtrend

Technical data as of Sep 11, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 5.51

Wall Street Target $19.75 (+107.9%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 223.9%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 135.2%

Profit Margin -19.3%

Valuation Discount vs History -36.7% cheaper

PE vs Historical 5.5 vs 21.7 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -36.7% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $8.55 (-10%)

2-Year Target $7.70 (-19%)

3-Year Target $6.93 (-27%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 6→22) $27.26 (+187%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.2, Growth: 213.3%) $117.31 (+1135%)

Base: (SPY PE: 5.5, Growth: 213.3%) $32.06 (+238%)

Bear: (PE: 4.7, Growth: 213.3%) $27.25 (+187%)

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.5 to 21.7

Stabilization Target: $37.40 (+293.6%)

PE Expansion Potential: +293.6%

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Last updated: September 12, 2026 12:47 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:47 AM

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Advanced SGML Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SGML price and gamma walls.

Iron Condor Bull Call Bear Put Collar

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