Selective Insurance Group (SIGI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$102.84
-0.50 (-0.48%)
▼
5d:
-0.35%
30d:
+20.78%
90d:
+9.53%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (25%)
Quality Score
28/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$86.55 – $100.54
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
11.5x
FAIR
vs 10.0x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$103.86
+0.5% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$97.23 / $105.65
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SIGI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$106.17
Based on 3.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$65.92
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SIGI is currently trading at $102.84, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $86.55 to $100.54. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.5) compared to its historical average (10.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SIGI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $105.65. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SIGI scores 21/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SIGI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $105.65. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SIGI scores 21/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$86.55 -
$100.54
Company Quality Score
28/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
24.8%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$86.55 -
$100.54
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$97.23
Resistance Level
$105.65
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (21/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($103.86)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 28/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.50
Wall Street Target
$103.86
(+0.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.1%
Profit Margin
9.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.6% premium
PE vs Historical
11.5 vs 10.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$108.09
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$113.07
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$118.27
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$102.80
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 2.8%)
$193.99
(+88%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.5, Growth: 2.8%)
$112.38
(+9%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.8, Growth: 2.8%)
$95.52
(-8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.08 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.32
Bull Case
$119.34
(+16%)
Analyst growth 8.0%, PE expands to 13.3
Base Case
$108.49
(+5%)
Market implied 8.0%, PE stable at 12.1
Bear Case
$68.33
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (SIGI)
Bullish
1 Retail Mentions
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Jan 14, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
A bullish StockTwits message discusses the potential for Selective Insurance Group's strong credit portfolio and higher new-purchase yields to boost ROE, although no recent news articles are available.
Key Retail Themes:
Potential for stronger ROE due to credit portfolio and higher yields
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 12:29 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:29 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:29 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SIGI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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