SIGI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SIGI - Selective Insurance Group
$96.99
1.06 (1.10%)
▲
5d:
-1.3%
30d:
+6.19%
90d:
+21.33%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 10, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
8d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SIGI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.2% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SIGI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.2% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$129.25
Based on 8.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$80.26
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SIGI is currently trading at $96.99, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $90.60 to $97.54. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 10.8) compared to its historical average (9.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SIGI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $90.73. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SIGI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $90.73. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$90.60 -
$97.54
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($95.43)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.2% growth with 5.7% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$90.60 -
$97.54
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$84.87
Resistance Level
$90.73
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.82
Wall Street Target
$95.43
(-0.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-10.2%
Profit Margin
8.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.2% premium
PE vs Historical
10.8 vs 9.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$99.00
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$102.17
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$105.44
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$95.54
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.6%)
$275.66
(+187%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.8, Growth: 12.6%)
$136.88
(+43%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.2, Growth: 12.6%)
$116.35
(+21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.20
Bull Case
$129.46
(+35%)
Analyst growth 23.2%, PE expands to 14.6
Base Case
$117.69
(+23%)
Market implied 23.2%, PE stable at 13.3
Bear Case
$64.96
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 12:44 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:44 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:44 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SIGI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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