Selective Insurance Group (SIGI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SIGI - Selective Insurance Group
$84.90
1.30 (1.56%)
▲
5d:
-1.01%
30d:
-6.92%
90d:
-15.23%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
25d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SIGI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SIGI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$116.10
Based on 5.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$72.09
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SIGI is currently trading at $84.90, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $86.29 to $92.05. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.7) is in line with its historical norms (10.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 55.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SIGI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $83.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 56/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $101.71 (+19.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SIGI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $83.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 56/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $101.71 (+19.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$86.29 -
$92.05
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (56/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($101.71)
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$86.29 -
$92.05
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$83.02
Resistance Level
$88.40
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.69
Wall Street Target
$101.71
(+19.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
55.1%
Profit Margin
9.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.7 vs 10.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$84.05
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$83.21
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$82.38
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$85.01
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 7.6%)
$222.55
(+162%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.7, Growth: 7.6%)
$105.71
(+25%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.2, Growth: 7.6%)
$89.86
(+6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.44 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.01
Bull Case
$100.59
(+19%)
Analyst growth 9.4%, PE expands to 11.5
Base Case
$91.44
(+8%)
Market implied 9.4%, PE stable at 10.4
Bear Case
$56.85
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.7 to 10.0
Stabilization Target:
$87.61
(+3.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 12:48 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:48 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:48 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SIGI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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