Selective Insurance Group (SIGI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SIGI - Selective Insurance Group
$90.34
-0.22 (-0.24%)
▼
5d:
-3.07%
30d:
-3.73%
90d:
-1.71%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SIGI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SIGI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$116.56
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$72.37
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SIGI is currently trading at $90.34, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $90.78 to $94.87. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.3) is in line with its historical norms (10.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SIGI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $89.44. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $102.86 (+13.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SIGI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $89.44. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $102.86 (+13.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$90.78 -
$94.87
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (49/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($102.86)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 45/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$90.78 -
$94.87
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$89.45
Resistance Level
$93.52
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.30
Wall Street Target
$102.86
(+13.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
55.1%
Profit Margin
9.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.0% premium
PE vs Historical
10.3 vs 10.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$91.24
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$92.16
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$93.08
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$90.41
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 7.7%)
$220.81
(+144%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.3, Growth: 7.7%)
$112.70
(+25%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.8, Growth: 7.7%)
$95.80
(+6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.24 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.06
Bull Case
$108.45
(+20%)
Analyst growth 8.9%, PE expands to 12.4
Base Case
$98.59
(+9%)
Market implied 8.9%, PE stable at 11.2
Bear Case
$61.58
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 11, 2026 9:00 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:00 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:00 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SIGI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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