Selective Insurance Group (SIGI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SIGI - Selective Insurance Group
$91.08
1.64 (1.83%)
▲
5d:
+5.65%
30d:
+3.88%
90d:
-6.86%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SIGI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SIGI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$111.52
Based on 5.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$69.25
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SIGI is currently trading at $91.08, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $84.60 to $88.53. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.4) is in line with its historical norms (10.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SIGI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $91.35. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SIGI scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SIGI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $91.35. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SIGI scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$84.60 -
$88.53
Company Quality Score
39/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
24.8%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (35/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($100.14)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 39/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$84.60 -
$88.53
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$83.35
Resistance Level
$91.35
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.40
Wall Street Target
$100.14
(+10.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
55.1%
Profit Margin
9.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.4% premium
PE vs Historical
10.4 vs 10.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$92.36
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$93.65
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$94.96
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$91.33
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 5.9%)
$206.67
(+127%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.4, Growth: 5.9%)
$108.20
(+19%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.8, Growth: 5.9%)
$91.97
(+1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.10 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.06
Bull Case
$106.93
(+17%)
Analyst growth 8.7%, PE expands to 12.2
Base Case
$97.21
(+7%)
Market implied 8.7%, PE stable at 11.1
Bear Case
$60.82
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 5:55 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:55 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:55 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SIGI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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