Stellar Bancorp (STEL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$39.32
+0.01 (+0.03%)
â˛
5d:
+1.11%
30d:
+5.3%
90d:
+9.16%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (75%)
Quality Score
47/100
Position
FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
16.8x
FAIR
vs 16.0x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$38.00
-3.4% vs target
Options IV & Volume
UNKNOWN Vol
UNKNOWN volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$36.58 / $38.33
Trend: Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: STEL is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.6% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$51.07
Based on 6.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$31.71
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: STEL is currently trading at $39.32, which is considered fair based on recent price action. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.8) is in line with its historical norms (16.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STEL is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $38.33. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: STEL scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STEL is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $38.33. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: STEL scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
UNKNOWN
Confidence Score
74.8%
Trading Range & Key Levels
Support Level
$36.58
Resistance Level
$38.33
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($38.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.75
Wall Street Target
$38.00
(-3.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
15.2%
Profit Margin
25.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.6% premium
PE vs Historical
16.8 vs 16.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$39.95
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$40.59
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$41.24
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17â16)
PE COMPRESSION
$39.39
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 8.7%)
$65.63
(+67%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.7, Growth: 8.7%)
$50.47
(+28%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.2, Growth: 8.7%)
$42.90
(+9%)
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Last updated: November 11, 2026 8:46 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:46 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:46 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is STEL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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