STEL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
STEL - Stellar Bancorp, Inc.
$38.89
0.32 (0.83%)
▲
5d:
+1.46%
30d:
+3.96%
90d:
+7.61%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 24, 2026
29d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: STEL is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.3% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: STEL is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.3% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$50.75
Based on 6.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$31.51
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: STEL is currently trading at $38.89, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.07 to $38.39. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.6) is in line with its historical norms (15.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STEL is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $38.33. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: STEL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STEL is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $38.33. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: STEL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$37.07 -
$38.39
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($38.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$37.07 -
$38.39
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.58
Resistance Level
$38.33
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.57
Wall Street Target
$38.00
(-2.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
15.2%
Profit Margin
25.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.3% premium
PE vs Historical
16.6 vs 15.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$39.40
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$39.91
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$40.43
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$38.80
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 8.7%)
$65.63
(+69%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.6, Growth: 8.7%)
$49.92
(+28%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.1, Growth: 8.7%)
$42.43
(+9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.72 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.06
Bull Case
$48.35
(+24%)
Analyst growth 14.0%, PE expands to 20.6
Base Case
$43.95
(+13%)
Market implied 14.0%, PE stable at 18.7
Bear Case
$26.23
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 10:28 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:28 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:28 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is STEL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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