THG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
THG - The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc.
$223.16
0.05 (0.02%)
▲
5d:
-0.95%
30d:
+4.22%
90d:
+14.1%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: THG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: THG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$202.05
Based on -0.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$125.46
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: THG is currently trading at $223.16, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $214.85 to $229.31. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.4) is in line with its historical norms (10.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, THG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $217.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: THG scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, THG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $217.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: THG scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$214.85 -
$229.31
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($235.88)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 60/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$214.85 -
$229.31
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$217.00
Resistance Level
$229.04
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.45
Wall Street Target
$235.88
(+5.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
24.9%
Profit Margin
11.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.0% premium
PE vs Historical
11.5 vs 10.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$229.80
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$236.70
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$243.80
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$223.51
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: -4.4%)
$341.98
(+53%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.5, Growth: -4.4%)
$195.16
(-13%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.7, Growth: -4.4%)
$165.89
(-26%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 10.64 | Current EPS (TTM): $20.58
Bull Case
$227.93
(+2%)
Analyst growth -5.3%, PE expands to 11.7
Base Case
$207.21
(-7%)
Market implied -5.3%, PE stable at 10.6
Bear Case
$148.86
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 10:23 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:23 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:23 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is THG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-23
Jane D Carlin
SELL
1200 shares
2026-02-27
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