THG
The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc.
FIRE, MARINE & CASUALTY INSURANCE
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The Hanover Insurance Group (THG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$248.53
-1.68 (-0.67%)
▼
5d:
-0.56%
30d:
+11.73%
90d:
+11.35%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (27%)
Quality Score
37/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$224.14 – $245.15
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
12.4x
FAIR
vs 10.8x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$245.88
-1.1% vs target
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$228.00 / $256.74
Trend: Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: THG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$205.30
Based on -1.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$127.47
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: THG is currently trading at $248.53, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $224.14 to $245.15. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 12.4) compared to its historical average (10.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.8% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, THG is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $228.00, while resistance sits at $256.74.
Market Sentiment: THG scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, THG is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $228.00, while resistance sits at $256.74.
Market Sentiment: THG scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$224.14 -
$245.15
Company Quality Score
37/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
27.1%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$224.14 -
$245.15
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$228.00
Resistance Level
$256.74
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (5/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($245.88)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 4.8% growth with 4.2% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 36/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.39
Wall Street Target
$245.88
(-1.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-0.9%
Profit Margin
11.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.8% premium
PE vs Historical
12.4 vs 10.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$260.46
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$272.96
(+10%)
3-Year Target
$286.06
(+15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$249.27
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -6.0%)
$331.27
(+33%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.4, Growth: -6.0%)
$206.74
(-17%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.5, Growth: -6.0%)
$175.73
(-29%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 12.01 | Current EPS (TTM): $20.83
Bull Case
$264.96
(+7%)
Analyst growth -3.7%, PE expands to 13.2
Base Case
$240.87
(-3%)
Market implied -3.7%, PE stable at 12.0
Bear Case
$170.14
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (THG)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 29, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Hanover Insurance Group ($THG) reported earnings of $5.15 per share for Q3 2026, surpassing estimates by $0.56, and generated revenues of $1.75 billion, surpassing estimates by $70 million.
Key Retail Themes:
Strong earnings and revenue performance
Positive impact on stock price
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 8:29 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:29 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:29 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is THG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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