The Hanover Insurance Group (THG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
THG - The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc.
$239.59
7.66 (3.30%)
▲
5d:
+4.89%
30d:
+10.12%
90d:
+9.85%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: THG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: THG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$207.61
Based on -0.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$128.91
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: THG is currently trading at $239.59, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $217.51 to $230.64. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 12.2) compared to its historical average (10.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, THG is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $239.91. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: THG scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, THG is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $239.91. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: THG scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$217.51 -
$230.64
Company Quality Score
40/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
29.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (20/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.3%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($235.88)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 40/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$217.51 -
$230.64
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$219.23
Resistance Level
$239.91
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.20
Wall Street Target
$235.88
(-1.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
24.9%
Profit Margin
11.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.6% premium
PE vs Historical
12.2 vs 10.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$250.61
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$262.14
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$274.20
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$240.52
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -4.4%)
$341.14
(+42%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.2, Growth: -4.4%)
$209.53
(-13%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.4, Growth: -4.4%)
$178.10
(-26%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 11.10 | Current EPS (TTM): $20.89
Bull Case
$239.87
(+0%)
Analyst growth -6.0%, PE expands to 12.2
Base Case
$218.07
(-9%)
Market implied -6.0%, PE stable at 11.1
Bear Case
$157.71
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 9:08 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:08 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:08 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is THG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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