THG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
THG - The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc.
$205.81
4.52 (2.25%)
▲
5d:
+3.8%
30d:
+5.23%
90d:
+20.2%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: THG is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: THG is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$197.15
Based on 1.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$122.41
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: THG is currently trading at $205.81, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $188.98 to $199.30. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.8) is in line with its historical norms (10.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, THG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $197.43. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: THG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, THG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $197.43. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: THG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$188.98 -
$199.30
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($206.38)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$188.98 -
$199.30
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$184.70
Resistance Level
$197.43
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.83
Wall Street Target
$206.38
(+2.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
48.6%
Profit Margin
10.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.2% premium
PE vs Historical
10.8 vs 10.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$205.72
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$210.24
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$214.87
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$200.45
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -2.0%)
$404.70
(+101%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.8, Growth: -2.0%)
$201.17
(0%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.2, Growth: -2.0%)
$170.99
(-15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 9.99 | Current EPS (TTM): $19.81
Bull Case
$204.34
(+2%)
Analyst growth -6.1%, PE expands to 11.0
Base Case
$185.77
(-8%)
Market implied -6.1%, PE stable at 10.0
Bear Case
$134.59
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 10:07 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:07 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:07 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is THG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-23
Jane D Carlin
SELL
1200 shares
2026-02-27
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-17
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