THG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
THG - The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc.
$216.86
2.87 (1.34%)
▲
5d:
-1.51%
30d:
+9.86%
90d:
+22.67%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
14d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: THG is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: THG is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$373.85
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$232.13
6.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: THG is currently trading at $216.86, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $195.80 to $215.91. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.6) compared to its historical average (10.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, THG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $197.43. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, THG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $197.43. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$195.80 -
$215.91
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
47.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($213.75)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$195.80 -
$215.91
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$184.70
Resistance Level
$197.43
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.63
Wall Street Target
$213.75
(-1.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
48.6%
Profit Margin
10.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.2% premium
PE vs Historical
11.6 vs 10.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$225.97
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$235.46
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$245.35
(+13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$217.20
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 61.4%)
$413.48
(+91%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.6, Growth: 61.4%)
$220.88
(+2%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.9, Growth: 61.4%)
$187.75
(-13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 10.71 | Current EPS (TTM): $20.02
Bull Case
$218.83
(+2%)
Analyst growth -7.2%, PE expands to 11.8
Base Case
$198.94
(-7%)
Market implied -7.2%, PE stable at 10.7
Bear Case
$145.75
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 5:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:39 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is THG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-23
Jane D Carlin
SELL
1200 shares
2026-02-27
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-17
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