The Hanover Insurance Group (THG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
THG - The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc.
$219.43
2.49 (1.15%)
▲
5d:
+0.92%
30d:
-3.39%
90d:
-0.35%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: THG is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.8% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: THG is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.8% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$208.51
Based on 0.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$129.47
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: THG is currently trading at $219.43, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $219.22 to $229.65. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.2) is in line with its historical norms (10.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, THG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $213.63. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: THG scores 74/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, THG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $213.63. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: THG scores 74/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$219.22 -
$229.65
Company Quality Score
68/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
86.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (74/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($238.25)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 19% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$219.22 -
$229.65
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$213.63
Resistance Level
$228.62
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.19
Wall Street Target
$238.25
(+8.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
24.9%
Profit Margin
11.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.8% premium
PE vs Historical
11.2 vs 10.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$223.38
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$227.40
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$231.49
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$219.29
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: -3.8%)
$356.00
(+62%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.2, Growth: -3.8%)
$195.27
(-11%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.5, Growth: -3.8%)
$165.98
(-24%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 10.38 | Current EPS (TTM): $20.90
Bull Case
$223.90
(+2%)
Analyst growth -6.2%, PE expands to 11.4
Base Case
$203.55
(-7%)
Market implied -6.2%, PE stable at 10.4
Bear Case
$147.52
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 7:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:40 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:40 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is THG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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