The Hanover Insurance Group (THG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
THG - The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc.
$225.84
1.83 (0.82%)
â˛
5d:
-2.52%
30d:
+1.65%
90d:
+15.18%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: THG is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 3.1% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: THG is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 3.1% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$205.54
Based on -0.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$127.62
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: THG is currently trading at $225.84, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $222.76 to $228.76. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.6) is in line with its historical norms (10.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, THG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $222.04. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, THG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $222.04. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$222.76 -
$228.76
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (41/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($236.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$222.76 -
$228.76
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$222.05
Resistance Level
$233.28
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.56
Wall Street Target
$236.50
(+4.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
24.9%
Profit Margin
11.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.1% premium
PE vs Historical
11.6 vs 10.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$232.84
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$240.06
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$247.50
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12â11)
PE COMPRESSION
$226.86
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: -4.2%)
$346.38
(+53%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.6, Growth: -4.2%)
$198.60
(-12%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.8, Growth: -4.2%)
$168.81
(-25%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 10.72 | Current EPS (TTM): $20.90
Bull Case
$230.24
(+2%)
Analyst growth -6.6%, PE expands to 11.8
Base Case
$209.31
(-7%)
Market implied -6.6%, PE stable at 10.7
Bear Case
$152.33
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 2:33 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:33 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:33 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is THG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-23
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