PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLK) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TLK - PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia
$12.55
0.13 (1.05%)
▲
5d:
-5.92%
30d:
-14.8%
90d:
-10.04%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
25d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TLK shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TLK shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.62
Based on 4.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.56
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TLK is currently trading at $12.55, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.51 to $15.09. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.2) compared to its historical average (12.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 28.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TLK is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.38. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.00 (+35.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TLK is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.38. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.00 (+35.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$13.51 -
$15.09
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 35.5% below Wall St target ($17.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$13.51 -
$15.09
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.38
Resistance Level
$14.22
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.22
Wall Street Target
$17.00
(+35.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
28.0%
Profit Margin
12.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.2 vs 12.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.75
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$11.00
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$10.29
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→12)
$12.49
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 4.2%)
$28.32
(+126%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.2, Growth: 4.2%)
$14.19
(+13%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.7, Growth: 4.2%)
$12.06
(-4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.94 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.96
Bull Case
$17.48
(+39%)
Analyst growth 27.9%, PE expands to 14.2
Base Case
$15.89
(+27%)
Market implied 27.9%, PE stable at 12.9
Bear Case
$8.45
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.2 to 12.4
Stabilization Target:
$15.23
(+21.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+21.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 9:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:40 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:40 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TLK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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