TMUS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TMUS - T-Mobile US, Inc.
$183.04
1.82 (1.00%)
▲
5d:
+0.24%
30d:
+7.41%
90d:
-4.12%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 17, 2026 at $179.45 · last confirmed Aug 21, 2026
Strength: 5.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TMUS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TMUS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$405.89
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$252.03
27.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TMUS is currently trading at $183.04, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $175.61 to $188.24. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.0) compared to its historical average (15.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 5.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMUS is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $187.48. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 58/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $243.38 (+34.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMUS is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $187.48. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 58/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $243.38 (+34.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$175.61 -
$188.24
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TMUS? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (58/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 34.3% below Wall St target ($243.38)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (58/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$175.61 -
$188.24
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$173.10
Resistance Level
$187.48
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.04
Wall Street Target
$243.38
(+34.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
5.3%
Profit Margin
11.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.0 vs 15.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$172.70
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$164.59
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$156.85
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→15)
$180.40
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 26.9%)
$570.56
(+215%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.0, Growth: 26.9%)
$370.75
(+105%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.1, Growth: 26.9%)
$315.14
(+74%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.12 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.54
Bull Case
$292.18
(+60%)
Analyst growth 45.7%, PE expands to 21.0
Base Case
$265.62
(+45%)
Market implied 45.7%, PE stable at 19.1
Bear Case
$124.00
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.0 to 15.0
Stabilization Target:
$208.43
(+15.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 3:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:37 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TMUS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Srikant M Datar
SELL
3291 shares
2026-03-04
G Michael Sievert
SELL
1089 shares
2026-02-24
Mark Wolfe Nelson
SELL
2329 shares
2026-02-24
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Advanced TMUS Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TMUS price and gamma walls.
