T-Mobile US (TMUS) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TMUS - T-Mobile US, Inc.
$153.75
-4.00 (-2.54%)
▼
5d:
-2.56%
30d:
-5.33%
90d:
-9.78%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
5d
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 9, 2026 at $148.58 · last confirmed Oct 20, 2026
Strength: 10.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TMUS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TMUS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$393.42
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$244.28
37.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TMUS is currently trading at $153.75, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $155.83 to $171.42. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.0) compared to its historical average (14.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 5.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMUS is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $147.90, while resistance sits at $171.80.
Market Sentiment: TMUS scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $236.84 (+54.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMUS is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $147.90, while resistance sits at $171.80.
Market Sentiment: TMUS scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $236.84 (+54.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$155.83 -
$171.42
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TMUS? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (36/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 54.0% below Wall St target ($236.84)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$155.83 -
$171.42
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$147.90
Resistance Level
$171.80
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.03
Wall Street Target
$236.84
(+54.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
5.3%
Profit Margin
11.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.0 vs 14.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$140.37
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$128.16
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$117.01
(-24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→15)
$153.75
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 27.2%)
$569.51
(+270%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.0, Growth: 27.2%)
$316.44
(+106%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.4, Growth: 27.2%)
$268.97
(+75%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.48 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.57
Bull Case
$252.64
(+64%)
Analyst growth 45.6%, PE expands to 18.1
Base Case
$229.67
(+49%)
Market implied 45.6%, PE stable at 16.5
Bear Case
$107.27
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.0 to 14.5
Stabilization Target:
$202.03
(+31.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+31.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 21, 2026 8:04 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:04 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:04 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TMUS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced TMUS Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TMUS price and gamma walls.
