TOST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TOST - Toast, Inc.
$24.60
0.34 (1.40%)
▲
5d:
-1.8%
30d:
+6.77%
90d:
-10.74%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 9.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TOST shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 10.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TOST shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 10.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$66.42
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$41.24
40.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TOST is currently trading at $24.60, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $23.38 to $25.62. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.3) compared to its historical average (20.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 123.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TOST is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $23.82, while resistance sits at $28.16.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $33.88 (+39.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TOST is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $23.82, while resistance sits at $28.16.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $33.88 (+39.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$23.38 -
$25.62
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 39.7% below Wall St target ($33.88)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$23.38 -
$25.62
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$23.82
Resistance Level
$28.16
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.30
Wall Street Target
$33.88
(+39.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
123.0%
Profit Margin
6.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.3 vs 20.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$21.83
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$19.65
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$17.69
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→20)
$24.86
(+3%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 25.7%)
$73.43
(+203%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.3, Growth: 25.7%)
$48.20
(+99%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.2, Growth: 25.7%)
$40.97
(+69%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (37x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 36.81 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.67
Bull Case
$54.25
(+124%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 40.5
Base Case
$49.32
(+103%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 36.8
Bear Case
$16.77
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 31.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.3 to 20.1
Stabilization Target:
$34.11
(+40.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+40.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 11:57 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:57 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:57 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TOST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
16
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Brian R Elworthy
SELL
3664 shares
2026-04-02
Aman Narang
SELL
13463 shares
2026-04-02
Stephen Fredette
SELL
7289 shares
2026-04-02
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