Toast (TOST) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$34.52
-0.25 (-0.72%)
▼
5d:
+2.95%
30d:
+10.22%
90d:
+1.35%
Open in Live Scanner
70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
0d
Protect TOST Gains
Updated Nov 10, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (27%)
Quality Score
34/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$30.59 – $33.81
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
19.6x
FAIR
vs 19.4x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$38.96
+12.9% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$30.82 / $36.02
Trend: Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TOST shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 30, 2026 at $31.53 · last confirmed Nov 10, 2026
Strength: 6.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$63.95
Based on 13.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$39.71
13.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TOST is currently trading at $34.52, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $30.59 to $33.81. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.6) is in line with its historical norms (19.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TOST is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $30.82, while resistance sits at $36.02.
Market Sentiment: TOST scores 8/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $38.96 (+12.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TOST is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $30.82, while resistance sits at $36.02.
Market Sentiment: TOST scores 8/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $38.96 (+12.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$30.59 -
$33.81
Company Quality Score
34/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
27.1%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$30.59 -
$33.81
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$30.82
Resistance Level
$36.02
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Protect Your Profits
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View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (8/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($38.96)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 34/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.55
Wall Street Target
$38.96
(+12.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
80.2%
Profit Margin
7.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.3% premium
PE vs Historical
19.6 vs 19.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$34.62
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$34.73
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$34.83
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→19)
PE COMPRESSION
$34.56
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 23.0%)
$65.31
(+89%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.6, Growth: 23.0%)
$64.30
(+86%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.6, Growth: 23.0%)
$54.65
(+58%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (38x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 38.21 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.91
Bull Case
$74.21
(+115%)
Analyst growth 94.0%, PE expands to 42.0
Base Case
$67.46
(+95%)
Market implied 94.0%, PE stable at 38.2
Bear Case
$23.64
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 32.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (TOST)
Bullish
3 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
2 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 6, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Shift4 reported a 13% increase in EBITDA and signed key customers Kahala Brands and MSG Sphere, boosting investor sentiment towards $TOST.
Key Retail Themes:
Strong financial performance
Key customer acquisitions
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 6:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TOST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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