Toast (TOST) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TOST - Toast, Inc.
$32.12
0.18 (0.56%)
▲
5d:
-5.33%
30d:
-5.7%
90d:
+30.09%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Sep 4, 2026 at $33.95 · last confirmed Sep 9, 2026
Strength: 10.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TOST shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TOST shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$66.47
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$41.27
22.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TOST is currently trading at $32.12, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $33.25 to $35.84. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.5) is in line with its historical norms (19.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 100% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TOST is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $31.53. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TOST scores 23/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $38.92 (+21.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TOST is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $31.53. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TOST scores 23/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $38.92 (+21.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$33.25 -
$35.84
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TOST? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (23/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.2% below Wall St target ($38.92)
- WARNING: Composite score 45/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$33.25 -
$35.84
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$31.53
Resistance Level
$35.74
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.54
Wall Street Target
$38.92
(+21.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
23.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
100.0%
Profit Margin
7.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.5 vs 19.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$31.51
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$30.91
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$30.32
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→20)
$32.22
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 25.0%)
$68.18
(+112%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.5, Growth: 25.0%)
$62.66
(+95%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.8, Growth: 25.0%)
$53.26
(+66%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (41x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 40.95 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.78
Bull Case
$70.27
(+119%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 45.0
Base Case
$63.88
(+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 41.0
Bear Case
$21.72
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 34.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.5 to 19.7
Stabilization Target:
$34.13
(+6.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 2:30 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:30 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:30 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TOST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Brian R Elworthy
SELL
3664 shares
2026-04-02
Aman Narang
SELL
13463 shares
2026-04-02
Stephen Fredette
SELL
7289 shares
2026-04-02
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