TOST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TOST - Toast, Inc.
$36.64
1.32 (3.74%)
▲
5d:
+5.44%
30d:
+29.01%
90d:
+59.03%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 21, 2026 at $36.23 · last confirmed Aug 21, 2026
Strength: 6.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TOST shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TOST shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$66.13
Based on 14.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$41.06
10.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TOST is currently trading at $36.64, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $30.36 to $35.05. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 20.4) is in line with its historical norms (19.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TOST is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $36.68. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: TOST scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TOST is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $36.68. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: TOST scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$30.36 -
$35.05
Company Quality Score
35/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
29.5%
Protect Your Profits
TOST is technically overbought (RSI 70). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.7%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($38.62)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 35/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$30.36 -
$35.05
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$33.22
Resistance Level
$36.68
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.41
Wall Street Target
$38.62
(+9.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
23.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
100.0%
Profit Margin
7.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.3% premium
PE vs Historical
20.4 vs 19.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$35.78
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$36.24
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$36.72
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→20)
PE COMPRESSION
$35.45
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 24.8%)
$68.70
(+95%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 24.8%)
$67.57
(+91%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 24.8%)
$57.44
(+63%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (45x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 44.51 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.79
Bull Case
$77.35
(+111%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 49.0
Base Case
$70.32
(+92%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 44.5
Bear Case
$23.91
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 37.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 11:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:51 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:51 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TOST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Brian R Elworthy
SELL
3664 shares
2026-04-02
Aman Narang
SELL
13463 shares
2026-04-02
Stephen Fredette
SELL
7289 shares
2026-04-02
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