TPB Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TPB - Turning Point Brands, Inc.
$80.18
4.73 (6.27%)
▲
5d:
-2.28%
30d:
-12.39%
90d:
-8.1%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TPB shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.0% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TPB shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.0% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$139.24
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$86.45
7.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TPB is currently trading at $80.18, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $80.60 to $89.05. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 28.0) is in line with its historical norms (25.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPB is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $80.54. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: TPB has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (25th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $130.00 (+62.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPB is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $80.54. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: TPB has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (25th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $130.00 (+62.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$80.60 -
$89.05
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
25th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.9%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 25th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+6.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 62.1% below Wall St target ($130.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.0% growth with 16.8% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$80.60 -
$89.05
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$5.99
(7.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$80.54
Resistance Level
$90.77
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
28.03
Wall Street Target
$130.00
(+62.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-24.1%
Profit Margin
11.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.0% premium
PE vs Historical
28.0 vs 25.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$82.59
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$85.06
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$87.61
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 28→26)
PE COMPRESSION
$80.32
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 28.0, Growth: 33.6%)
$191.39
(+139%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 33.6%)
$148.69
(+85%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 33.6%)
$126.39
(+58%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 27.23 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.92
Bull Case
$85.66
(+7%)
Analyst growth -2.1%, PE expands to 30.0
Base Case
$77.88
(-3%)
Market implied -2.1%, PE stable at 27.2
Bear Case
$54.07
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 1:02 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:02 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:02 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TPB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Andrew Flynn
SELL
2000 shares
2026-03-04
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