Turning Point Brands (TPB) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TPB - Turning Point Brands, Inc.
$71.51
-0.44 (-0.61%)
▼
5d:
-7.06%
30d:
-17.15%
90d:
-11.64%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TPB shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TPB shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$117.82
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$73.15
2.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TPB is currently trading at $71.51, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $77.14 to $87.86. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 29.6) is in line with its historical norms (27.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.8% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPB is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $71.46. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TPB scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (23th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $125.17 (+75.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPB is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $71.46. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TPB scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (23th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $125.17 (+75.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$77.14 -
$87.86
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
23th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TPB? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 23th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (33/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 75.0% below Wall St target ($125.17)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.8% growth with 22.6% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$77.14 -
$87.86
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$6.14
(8.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$71.46
Resistance Level
$85.64
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
29.55
Wall Street Target
$125.17
(+75.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
22.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-77.2%
Profit Margin
8.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.8% premium
PE vs Historical
29.6 vs 27.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$73.51
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$75.57
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$77.69
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 30→27)
PE COMPRESSION
$71.51
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 29.5, Growth: 28.7%)
$152.52
(+113%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 28.7%)
$104.11
(+46%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 28.7%)
$88.49
(+24%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (30x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.28 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.30
Bull Case
$83.27
(+17%)
Analyst growth 5.2%, PE expands to 34.4
Base Case
$75.70
(+6%)
Market implied 5.2%, PE stable at 31.3
Bear Case
$48.93
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 10:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:17 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:17 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TPB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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