TPB
Turning Point Brands, Inc.
TOBACCO PRODUCTS
Turning Point Brands (TPB) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$58.81
-4.00 (-6.37%)
▼
5d:
-16.46%
30d:
+6.44%
90d:
-31.89%
Open in Live Scanner
70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Nov 09, 2026
0d
Protect TPB Gains
Updated Nov 11, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (45%)
Quality Score
32/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$57.77 – $67.26
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
27.1x
FAIR
vs 27.3x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$118.50
+101.5% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$58.50 / $71.52
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: TPB is down 16.5% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$75.26
Based on 6.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$46.73
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TPB is currently trading at $58.81, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $57.77 to $67.26. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 27.1) is in line with its historical norms (27.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPB is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $58.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: TPB scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $118.50 (+101.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPB is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $58.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: TPB scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $118.50 (+101.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$57.77 -
$67.26
Company Quality Score
32/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
45.2%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$57.77 -
$67.26
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support Level
$58.50
Resistance Level
$71.52
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding TPB? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-6.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading 101.5% below Wall St target ($118.50)
- WARNING: Composite score 32/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
27.06
Wall Street Target
$118.50
(+101.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
27.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-83.2%
Profit Margin
5.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
27.1 vs 27.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$58.63
(0%)
2-Year Target
$58.46
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$58.28
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 27→27)
$58.80
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 27.1, Growth: 9.5%)
$77.18
(+31%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 9.5%)
$56.65
(-4%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 9.5%)
$48.15
(-18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (45x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (27x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 44.86 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.40
Bull Case
$107.25
(+82%)
Analyst growth 55.2%, PE expands to 49.4
Base Case
$97.50
(+66%)
Market implied 55.2%, PE stable at 44.9
Bear Case
$42.71
(-27%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 38.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 27.1 to 27.3
Stabilization Target:
$59.33
(+0.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.9%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (TPB)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 21, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
ALP, a fast-growing nicotine pouch brand, announced a landmark partnership with UFC champion Conor McGregor, marking a major growth milestone and signaling continued investment in sports, culture, and brand storytelling.
Key Retail Themes:
brand partnership
growth milestone
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 3:43 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:43 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:43 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TPB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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