TPB Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TPB - Turning Point Brands, Inc.
$83.41
-3.33 (-3.84%)
âŧ
5d:
-4.5%
30d:
+14.1%
90d:
-8.86%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: TPB is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 10.2% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: TPB is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 10.2% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$117.82
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$73.15
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TPB is currently trading at $83.41, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $77.89 to $86.86. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 35.8) compared to its historical average (26.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 10.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPB is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $83.23. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: TPB scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (27th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $125.17 (+44.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPB is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $83.23. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: TPB scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (27th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $125.17 (+44.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$77.89 -
$86.86
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
27th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TPB? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 27th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (35/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 44.3% below Wall St target ($125.17)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 10.2% growth with 22.6% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$77.89 -
$86.86
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
Âą$5.30
(6.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$83.23
Resistance Level
$91.94
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
35.84
Wall Street Target
$125.17
(+44.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
22.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-77.2%
Profit Margin
8.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+10.2% premium
PE vs Historical
35.8 vs 26.8
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+10.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$95.59
(+10%)
2-Year Target
$105.34
(+21%)
3-Year Target
$116.08
(+34%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 36â27)
PE COMPRESSION
$86.80
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 35.8, Growth: 28.7%)
$185.01
(+113%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 28.7%)
$103.59
(+19%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 28.7%)
$88.06
(+2%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (38x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (36x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 37.56 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.35
Bull Case
$99.98
(+20%)
Analyst growth 3.0%, PE expands to 41.3
Base Case
$90.89
(+9%)
Market implied 3.0%, PE stable at 37.6
Bear Case
$60.02
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 31.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 6:27 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:27 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:27 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TPB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Andrew Flynn
SELL
2000 shares
2026-03-04
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