Turning Point Brands (TPB) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TPB - Turning Point Brands, Inc.
$66.87
2.26 (3.50%)
▲
5d:
+10.88%
30d:
+10.53%
90d:
-12.15%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
11d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TPB shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TPB shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$109.38
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$67.92
1.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TPB is currently trading at $66.87, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $56.66 to $66.16. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 29.8) is in line with its historical norms (27.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.1% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPB is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $54.17, while resistance sits at $69.19. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: TPB scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (24th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $118.50 (+77.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPB is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $54.17, while resistance sits at $69.19. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: TPB scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (24th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $118.50 (+77.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$56.66 -
$66.16
Company Quality Score
29/100
(SELL)
Options IV Signal
24th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
48.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TPB? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 24th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading 77.2% below Wall St target ($118.50)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.1% growth with 22.6% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 29/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$56.66 -
$66.16
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$4.87
(7.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$54.17
Resistance Level
$69.19
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
29.76
Wall Street Target
$118.50
(+77.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
22.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-77.2%
Profit Margin
8.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.1% premium
PE vs Historical
29.8 vs 27.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$68.94
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$71.08
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$73.28
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 30→27)
PE COMPRESSION
$66.97
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 29.8, Growth: 27.9%)
$139.89
(+109%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 27.9%)
$93.34
(+40%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 27.9%)
$79.34
(+19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 27.85 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.32
Bull Case
$68.83
(+3%)
Analyst growth -3.2%, PE expands to 30.6
Base Case
$62.57
(-6%)
Market implied -3.2%, PE stable at 27.9
Bear Case
$43.93
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 2:58 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:58 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:58 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TPB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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