Turning Point Brands (TPB) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TPB - Turning Point Brands, Inc.
$55.64
0.32 (0.58%)
▲
5d:
-10.36%
30d:
-27.59%
90d:
-34.95%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: TPB is down 10.4% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: TPB is down 10.4% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$109.38
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$67.92
18.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TPB is currently trading at $55.64, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $60.74 to $79.57. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 24.8) is in line with its historical norms (27.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPB is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $54.69. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $118.50 (+113.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPB is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $54.69. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $118.50 (+113.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$60.74 -
$79.57
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
35th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.7%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TPB? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 35th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 113.0% below Wall St target ($118.50)
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$60.74 -
$79.57
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$4.78
(8.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$54.69
Resistance Level
$65.25
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.77
Wall Street Target
$118.50
(+113.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
22.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-77.2%
Profit Margin
8.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
24.8 vs 27.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$53.92
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$52.24
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$50.62
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 25→27)
$55.60
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.8, Growth: 27.9%)
$116.39
(+109%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 27.9%)
$95.88
(+72%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 27.9%)
$81.50
(+47%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 24.05 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.30
Bull Case
$59.44
(+7%)
Analyst growth -2.3%, PE expands to 26.5
Base Case
$54.04
(-3%)
Market implied -2.3%, PE stable at 24.1
Bear Case
$37.62
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 24.8 to 27.2
Stabilization Target:
$61.11
(+9.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 12:23 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:23 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:23 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TPB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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