Tri Pointe Homes (TPH) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$46.95
-0.02 (-0.04%)
âŧ
5d:
+0.0%
30d:
+0.32%
90d:
+27.2%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (66%)
Quality Score
51/100
Position
FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
20.2x
STRETCHED
vs 16.7x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$47.00
+0.1% upside
Options IV & Volume
UNKNOWN Vol
UNKNOWN volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$46.81 / $46.99
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: TPH is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 6.6% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$75.61
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$46.95
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TPH is currently trading at $46.95, which is considered fair based on recent price action. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 20.2) compared to its historical average (16.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $46.81. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 40/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $46.81. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 40/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
UNKNOWN
Confidence Score
66.2%
Trading Range & Key Levels
Support Level
$46.81
Resistance Level
$46.99
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 13, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($47.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 6.6% growth with -29.6% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.19
Wall Street Target
$47.00
(+0.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-29.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-88.6%
Profit Margin
5.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.6% premium
PE vs Historical
20.2 vs 16.7
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$50.05
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$53.35
(+14%)
3-Year Target
$56.87
(+21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20â17)
PE COMPRESSION
$47.03
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 54.0%)
$172.95
(+268%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 54.0%)
$158.46
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.7, Growth: 54.0%)
$131.04
(+179%)
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (TPH)
Bearish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Apr 25, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Bearish sentiment dominates $TPH on StockTwits as a user predicts a significant EPS cut for KB Home ($3.27 in 2026 vs. $6.40 in 2025) and a lower stock price ($32-33) based on a P/E ratio of 10.
Key Retail Themes:
EPS cut for KB Home
Lower stock price prediction
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 8:42 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:42 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:42 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TPH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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