Trinity Industries (TRN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TRN - Trinity Industries, Inc.
$25.54
-0.28 (-1.08%)
▼
5d:
+1.27%
30d:
-8.26%
90d:
-31.16%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TRN appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -7.3% annual earnings decline despite 620% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TRN appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -7.3% annual earnings decline despite 620% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$33.38
Based on 0.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$20.73
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TRN is currently trading at $25.54, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.32 to $27.67. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.9) compared to its historical average (14.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 619.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TRN is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $24.28, while resistance sits at $26.32.
Market Sentiment: TRN scores 88/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (20th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.00 (+21.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TRN is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $24.28, while resistance sits at $26.32.
Market Sentiment: TRN scores 88/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (20th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.00 (+21.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$25.32 -
$27.67
Company Quality Score
70/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
20th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
92.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 20th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (88/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.4% below Wall St target ($31.00)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 88/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$25.32 -
$27.67
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.49
(5.8%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.28
Resistance Level
$26.32
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.88
Wall Street Target
$31.00
(+21.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-4.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
619.5%
Profit Margin
16.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.9 vs 14.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$23.68
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$21.95
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$20.35
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→15)
$25.52
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -2.3%)
$39.85
(+56%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.9, Growth: -2.3%)
$23.84
(-7%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.1, Growth: -2.3%)
$20.26
(-21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 5.92 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.36
Bull Case
$14.20
(-44%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 6.5
Base Case
$12.91
(-50%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 5.9
Bear Case
$17.56
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.9 to 14.9
Stabilization Target:
$32.03
(+25.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+25.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 24, 2026 7:54 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:54 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:54 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TRN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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Advanced TRN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TRN price and gamma walls.
