TRUP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TRUP - Trupanion, Inc.
$27.37
1.54 (5.96%)
▲
5d:
+1.86%
30d:
+17.07%
90d:
+11.53%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
22d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TRUP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TRUP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$41.57
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$25.81
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TRUP is currently trading at $27.37, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.82 to $26.14. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.3) is in line with its historical norms (6.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 235.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TRUP is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $22.76. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: TRUP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $39.75 (+45.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TRUP is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $22.76. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: TRUP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $39.75 (+45.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$22.82 -
$26.14
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
66.7%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+6.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading 45.2% below Wall St target ($39.75)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$22.82 -
$26.14
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$21.17
Resistance Level
$22.76
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.35
Wall Street Target
$39.75
(+45.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
235.1%
Profit Margin
1.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.4 vs 6.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$26.66
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$25.97
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$25.29
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→7)
$27.48
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 9.9%)
$124.77
(+356%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.4, Growth: 9.9%)
$36.38
(+33%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.4, Growth: 9.9%)
$30.92
(+13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (44x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 43.78 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.59
Bull Case
$56.83
(+108%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 48.2
Base Case
$51.66
(+89%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 43.8
Bear Case
$17.56
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 37.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.4 to 6.9
Stabilization Target:
$29.74
(+8.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 11:33 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:33 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:33 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TRUP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
John R Gallagher
SELL
430 shares
2026-03-30
Emily Dreyer
SELL
7792 shares
2026-03-04
Fawwad Qureshi
SELL
2837 shares
2026-02-27
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