TRUP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TRUP - Trupanion, Inc.
$23.57
0.32 (1.38%)
▲
5d:
-1.38%
30d:
+7.87%
90d:
-10.24%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TRUP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TRUP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$42.18
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$26.19
10.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TRUP is currently trading at $23.57, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.73 to $23.38. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.5) compared to its historical average (7.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 235.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TRUP is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $22.76. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TRUP has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $39.75 (+68.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TRUP is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $22.76. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TRUP has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $39.75 (+68.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$21.73 -
$23.38
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 68.6% below Wall St target ($39.75)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$21.73 -
$23.38
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$21.17
Resistance Level
$22.76
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.47
Wall Street Target
$39.75
(+68.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
235.1%
Profit Margin
1.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.5 vs 7.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$21.76
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$20.08
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$18.53
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→7)
$23.72
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 9.9%)
$124.77
(+429%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.5, Growth: 9.9%)
$31.33
(+33%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.6, Growth: 9.9%)
$26.63
(+13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (39x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 39.41 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.59
Bull Case
$51.15
(+117%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 43.4
Base Case
$46.50
(+97%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 39.4
Bear Case
$15.81
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 33.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.5 to 7.0
Stabilization Target:
$30.17
(+28.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+28.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 10:11 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:11 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:11 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TRUP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
John R Gallagher
SELL
430 shares
2026-03-30
Emily Dreyer
SELL
7792 shares
2026-03-04
Fawwad Qureshi
SELL
2837 shares
2026-02-27
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