TRUP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TRUP - Trupanion, Inc.
$24.92
0.43 (1.76%)
▲
5d:
+0.2%
30d:
-7.4%
90d:
+2.42%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
TODAY
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TRUP appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -5.2% annual earnings decline despite 235% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TRUP appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -5.2% annual earnings decline despite 235% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$40.97
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$25.44
2.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TRUP is currently trading at $24.92, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.57 to $26.61. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.8) compared to its historical average (6.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 235.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TRUP is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $23.48, while resistance sits at $26.64.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.25 (+49.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TRUP is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $23.48, while resistance sits at $26.64.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.25 (+49.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$24.57 -
$26.61
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 49.5% below Wall St target ($37.25)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$24.57 -
$26.61
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$23.48
Resistance Level
$26.64
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.78
Wall Street Target
$37.25
(+49.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
235.1%
Profit Margin
1.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.8 vs 6.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$23.62
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$22.40
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$21.23
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→7)
$24.97
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 9.9%)
$118.75
(+377%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.8, Growth: 9.9%)
$33.12
(+33%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.9, Growth: 9.9%)
$28.15
(+13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (42x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 41.51 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.59
Bull Case
$53.88
(+116%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 45.7
Base Case
$48.98
(+97%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 41.5
Bear Case
$16.65
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 35.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.8 to 6.8
Stabilization Target:
$29.31
(+17.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 9:55 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:55 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:55 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TRUP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
John R Gallagher
SELL
430 shares
2026-03-30
Emily Dreyer
SELL
7792 shares
2026-03-04
Fawwad Qureshi
SELL
2837 shares
2026-02-27
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