TRUP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TRUP - Trupanion, Inc.
$21.46
-0.67 (-3.03%)
▼
5d:
-1.06%
30d:
-18.59%
90d:
-23.38%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 10, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TRUP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 11.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TRUP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 11.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$42.78
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$26.56
19.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TRUP is currently trading at $21.46, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.74 to $25.04. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.0) compared to its historical average (7.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 235.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TRUP is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $21.16. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $39.75 (+85.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TRUP is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $21.16. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $39.75 (+85.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$21.74 -
$25.04
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading 85.2% below Wall St target ($39.75)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$21.74 -
$25.04
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$21.16
Resistance Level
$22.97
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.98
Wall Street Target
$39.75
(+85.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
235.1%
Profit Margin
1.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.0 vs 7.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$19.31
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$17.38
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$15.64
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→7)
$22.31
(+4%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 9.9%)
$125.51
(+485%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.0, Growth: 9.9%)
$28.52
(+33%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.2, Growth: 9.9%)
$24.25
(+13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (37x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 36.76 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.59
Bull Case
$47.72
(+115%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 40.4
Base Case
$43.38
(+96%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 36.8
Bear Case
$14.75
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 31.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.0 to 7.1
Stabilization Target:
$30.60
(+42.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+42.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 03, 2026 5:57 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:57 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:57 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is TRUP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
John R Gallagher
SELL
430 shares
2026-03-30
Emily Dreyer
SELL
7792 shares
2026-03-04
Fawwad Qureshi
SELL
2837 shares
2026-02-27
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