ULTA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ULTA - Ulta Beauty, Inc. Common Stock
$462.81
-2.25 (-0.48%)
▼
5d:
-1.88%
30d:
-8.18%
90d:
-10.33%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 27, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.4/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ULTA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ULTA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$859.87
Based on 7.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$533.91
13.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ULTA is currently trading at $462.81, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $462.25 to $502.55. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.3) compared to its historical average (20.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 15.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ULTA is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $458.70. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ULTA has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $627.25 (+34.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ULTA is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $458.70. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ULTA has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $627.25 (+34.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$462.25 -
$502.55
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 34.9% below Wall St target ($627.25)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$462.25 -
$502.55
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$23.02
(5.0%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$458.70
Resistance Level
$527.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.28
Wall Street Target
$627.25
(+34.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
15.5%
Profit Margin
9.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.3 vs 20.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$428.79
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$395.34
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$364.50
(-22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→21)
$465.79
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 11.4%)
$859.19
(+85%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.3, Growth: 11.4%)
$642.11
(+38%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.8, Growth: 11.4%)
$545.79
(+17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.10 | Current EPS (TTM): $26.68
Bull Case
$537.31
(+16%)
Analyst growth 7.1%, PE expands to 18.8
Base Case
$488.47
(+5%)
Market implied 7.1%, PE stable at 17.1
Bear Case
$310.17
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.3 to 20.8
Stabilization Target:
$594.29
(+27.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+27.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 1:45 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:45 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:45 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is ULTA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
2
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
George R Mrkonic Jr
SELL
452 shares
2026-04-07
Maria Elvira Salazar
BUY
2026-03-19
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-24
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Advanced ULTA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ULTA price and gamma walls.
