ULTA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ULTA - Ulta Beauty, Inc. Common Stock
$521.46
6.32 (1.23%)
â˛
5d:
+2.1%
30d:
+9.1%
90d:
+3.45%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 27, 2026
3d
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 19, 2026 at $533.78 · last confirmed Aug 19, 2026
Strength: 4.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ULTA is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -3.1% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ULTA is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -3.1% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$826.80
Based on 7.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$513.38
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ULTA is currently trading at $521.46, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $484.84 to $536.80. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.2) is in line with its historical norms (20.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 15.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ULTA is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $493.11, while resistance sits at $561.50.
Market Sentiment: ULTA scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $623.42 (+19.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ULTA is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $493.11, while resistance sits at $561.50.
Market Sentiment: ULTA scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $623.42 (+19.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$484.84 -
$536.80
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.7%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ULTA? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (30/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($623.42)
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$484.84 -
$536.80
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
Âą$35.97
(6.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$493.11
Resistance Level
$561.50
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.25
Wall Street Target
$623.42
(+19.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
15.5%
Profit Margin
9.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.3 vs 20.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$505.29
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$489.63
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$474.45
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18â20)
$519.92
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 11.4%)
$791.74
(+52%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.3, Growth: 11.4%)
$719.98
(+38%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.5, Growth: 11.4%)
$611.98
(+17%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.81 | Current EPS (TTM): $26.01
Bull Case
$622.46
(+19%)
Analyst growth 9.8%, PE expands to 21.8
Base Case
$565.87
(+9%)
Market implied 9.8%, PE stable at 19.8
Bear Case
$350.30
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.3 to 20.0
Stabilization Target:
$571.43
(+9.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 8:28 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:28 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:28 AM
đĨ Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is ULTA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
George R Mrkonic Jr
SELL
452 shares
2026-04-07
Maria Elvira Salazar
BUY
2026-03-19
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Advanced ULTA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ULTA price and gamma walls.
