ULTA
Ulta Beauty, Inc. Common Stock
RETAIL-RETAIL STORES, NEC
Ulta Beauty (ULTA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$659.08
-5.33 (-0.80%)
▼
5d:
-0.25%
30d:
+13.83%
90d:
+27.84%
Open in Live Scanner
70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Dec 03, 2026
20d
Protect ULTA Gains
Updated Nov 11, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (39%)
Quality Score
35/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$575.19 – $649.71
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
23.1x
FAIR
vs 20.1x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$635.84
-3.5% vs target
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$619.99 / $674.04
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ULTA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$830.93
Based on 7.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$515.94
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ULTA is currently trading at $659.08, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $575.19 to $649.71. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 23.1) compared to its historical average (20.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ULTA is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $674.04. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ULTA scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ULTA is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $674.04. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ULTA scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$575.19 -
$649.71
Company Quality Score
35/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
39.2%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$575.19 -
$649.71
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$38.49
(5.8%)
Support Level
$619.99
Resistance Level
$674.04
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding ULTA? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($635.84)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 35/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.07
Wall Street Target
$635.84
(-3.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.3%
Profit Margin
9.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.8% premium
PE vs Historical
23.1 vs 20.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$690.72
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$723.87
(+10%)
3-Year Target
$758.62
(+15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→20)
PE COMPRESSION
$661.02
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.1, Growth: 11.4%)
$909.99
(+38%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 11.4%)
$783.45
(+19%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 11.4%)
$665.93
(+1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.21 | Current EPS (TTM): $27.44
Bull Case
$760.99
(+16%)
Analyst growth 4.1%, PE expands to 26.6
Base Case
$691.81
(+5%)
Market implied 4.1%, PE stable at 24.2
Bear Case
$451.80
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (ULTA)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 4, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
StockTwits messages indicate bullish sentiment towards $ULTA, with no specific price levels or technical analysis mentioned. The latest Yahoo Finance news article discusses Chewy and Five Below's different revenue growth strategies and recent developments.
Key Retail Themes:
Chewy's e-commerce model vs. Five Below's brick-and-mortar retail
Recent business developments at Chewy and Five Below
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 8:19 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:19 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:19 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ULTA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced ULTA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ULTA price and gamma walls.
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