UFCS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UFCS - United Fire Group Inc.
$53.64
0.24 (0.45%)
â˛
5d:
-0.59%
30d:
+4.42%
90d:
+9.02%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: UFCS is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.8% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: UFCS is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.8% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$52.02
Based on 0.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$32.30
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UFCS is currently trading at $53.64, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $50.71 to $53.93. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.1) is in line with its historical norms (10.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UFCS is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $53.03. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: UFCS scores 39/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UFCS is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $53.03. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: UFCS scores 39/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$50.71 -
$53.93
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
39.0%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (39/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($58.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$50.71 -
$53.93
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$53.03
Resistance Level
$55.82
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.08
Wall Street Target
$58.50
(+9.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
48.3%
Profit Margin
9.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.8% premium
PE vs Historical
11.1 vs 10.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$54.61
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$55.59
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$56.59
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11â11)
PE COMPRESSION
$53.61
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: -3.0%)
$88.82
(+66%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.1, Growth: -3.0%)
$48.95
(-9%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.4, Growth: -3.0%)
$41.60
(-22%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 10.08 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.30
Bull Case
$53.64
(0%)
Analyst growth -8.7%, PE expands to 11.1
Base Case
$48.77
(-9%)
Market implied -8.7%, PE stable at 10.1
Bear Case
$36.31
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 19, 2026 12:14 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:14 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:14 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UFCS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Christopher R Drahozal
SELL
4250 shares
2026-03-04
Christopher R Drahozal
SELL
4250 shares
2026-03-02
Dee Ann Mcintyre
SELL
4250 shares
2026-03-02
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