UFCS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UFCS - United Fire Group Inc.
$52.45
0.77 (1.49%)
▲
5d:
-0.64%
30d:
+9.87%
90d:
+34.01%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
21d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UFCS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UFCS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$20.28
Based on -14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.59
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UFCS is currently trading at $52.45, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $47.01 to $52.63. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.6) compared to its historical average (10.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UFCS is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $47.59. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UFCS is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $47.59. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$47.01 -
$52.63
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($51.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$47.01 -
$52.63
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$43.01
Resistance Level
$47.59
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.58
Wall Street Target
$51.00
(-2.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
71.6%
Profit Margin
9.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.8% premium
PE vs Historical
11.6 vs 10.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$54.44
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$56.51
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$58.66
(+12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$52.69
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -33.0%)
$97.69
(+86%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.6, Growth: -33.0%)
$51.93
(-1%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.8, Growth: -33.0%)
$44.14
(-16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 10.42 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.96
Bull Case
$51.92
(-1%)
Analyst growth -8.7%, PE expands to 11.5
Base Case
$47.20
(-10%)
Market implied -8.7%, PE stable at 10.4
Bear Case
$35.14
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 6:01 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:01 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:01 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UFCS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Christopher R Drahozal
SELL
4250 shares
2026-03-04
Christopher R Drahozal
SELL
4250 shares
2026-03-02
Dee Ann Mcintyre
SELL
4250 shares
2026-03-02
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