United Fire Group (UFCS) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UFCS - United Fire Group Inc.
$57.83
0.52 (0.91%)
▲
5d:
+4.39%
30d:
+7.91%
90d:
+12.66%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
11d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: UFCS is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: UFCS is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$53.02
Based on 0.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$32.92
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UFCS is currently trading at $57.83, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $53.63 to $56.20. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.8) compared to its historical average (10.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UFCS is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $57.94. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 51/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UFCS is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $57.94. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 51/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$53.63 -
$56.20
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
47.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (51/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($58.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (51/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$53.63 -
$56.20
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$53.99
Resistance Level
$57.94
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.84
Wall Street Target
$58.50
(+2.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
48.3%
Profit Margin
9.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.6% premium
PE vs Historical
11.8 vs 10.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$59.37
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$61.51
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$63.72
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$57.58
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -3.0%)
$87.71
(+53%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.8, Growth: -3.0%)
$52.30
(-9%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.1, Growth: -3.0%)
$44.45
(-22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 10.51 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.39
Bull Case
$55.98
(-2%)
Analyst growth -10.2%, PE expands to 11.6
Base Case
$50.89
(-11%)
Market implied -10.2%, PE stable at 10.5
Bear Case
$38.54
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 1:48 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:48 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:48 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UFCS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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