UFCS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UFCS - United Fire Group Inc.
$53.02
-0.25 (-0.47%)
âŧ
5d:
-2.32%
30d:
+7.28%
90d:
+10.16%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: UFCS is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.4% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: UFCS is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.4% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$52.02
Based on 0.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$32.30
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UFCS is currently trading at $53.02, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $50.82 to $54.00. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.9) is in line with its historical norms (10.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UFCS is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $52.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: UFCS scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $58.50 (+10.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UFCS is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $52.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: UFCS scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $58.50 (+10.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$50.82 -
$54.00
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
48.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (35/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($58.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$50.82 -
$54.00
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$52.01
Resistance Level
$55.22
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.95
Wall Street Target
$58.50
(+10.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
48.3%
Profit Margin
9.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.4% premium
PE vs Historical
11.0 vs 10.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$53.76
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$54.51
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$55.28
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11â11)
PE COMPRESSION
$52.98
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: -3.0%)
$88.64
(+67%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.0, Growth: -3.0%)
$48.38
(-9%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.3, Growth: -3.0%)
$41.12
(-22%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 9.88 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.39
Bull Case
$52.62
(-1%)
Analyst growth -10.2%, PE expands to 10.9
Base Case
$47.83
(-10%)
Market implied -10.2%, PE stable at 9.9
Bear Case
$36.22
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 1:36 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:36 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:36 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UFCS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Christopher R Drahozal
SELL
4250 shares
2026-03-04
Christopher R Drahozal
SELL
4250 shares
2026-03-02
Dee Ann Mcintyre
SELL
4250 shares
2026-03-02
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