UFCS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UFCS - United Fire Group Inc.
$49.42
0.92 (1.90%)
▲
5d:
+3.15%
30d:
+2.68%
90d:
+31.89%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: UFCS is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: UFCS is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$20.08
Based on -14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.47
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UFCS is currently trading at $49.42, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $44.85 to $48.66. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.7) is in line with its historical norms (10.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UFCS is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $47.59. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UFCS has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UFCS is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $47.59. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UFCS has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$44.85 -
$48.66
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($51.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$44.85 -
$48.66
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$43.01
Resistance Level
$47.59
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.71
Wall Street Target
$51.00
(+5.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
71.6%
Profit Margin
9.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.5% premium
PE vs Historical
10.7 vs 10.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$49.23
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$49.97
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$50.72
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$48.79
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -33.0%)
$97.69
(+101%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.7, Growth: -33.0%)
$48.02
(-1%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.1, Growth: -33.0%)
$40.82
(-16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 9.74 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.96
Bull Case
$48.51
(0%)
Analyst growth -8.7%, PE expands to 10.7
Base Case
$44.10
(-9%)
Market implied -8.7%, PE stable at 9.7
Bear Case
$32.84
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 11:44 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:44 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:44 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UFCS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Christopher R Drahozal
SELL
4250 shares
2026-03-04
Christopher R Drahozal
SELL
4250 shares
2026-03-02
Dee Ann Mcintyre
SELL
4250 shares
2026-03-02
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