United Fire Group (UFCS) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UFCS - United Fire Group Inc.
$53.94
1.35 (2.57%)
▲
5d:
+0.95%
30d:
-0.39%
90d:
+0.02%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: UFCS is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: UFCS is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$52.52
Based on 0.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$32.61
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UFCS is currently trading at $53.94, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $53.37 to $55.04. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.1) is in line with its historical norms (10.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UFCS is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $54.80. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 58/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UFCS is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $54.80. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 58/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$53.37 -
$55.04
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (58/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($58.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (58/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$53.37 -
$55.04
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$50.81
Resistance Level
$54.80
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.14
Wall Street Target
$58.50
(+8.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
48.3%
Profit Margin
9.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.7% premium
PE vs Historical
11.1 vs 10.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$54.86
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$55.79
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$56.74
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$53.97
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: -3.0%)
$90.10
(+67%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.1, Growth: -3.0%)
$49.22
(-9%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.5, Growth: -3.0%)
$41.84
(-22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 9.76 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.39
Bull Case
$51.95
(-4%)
Analyst growth -10.2%, PE expands to 10.7
Base Case
$47.22
(-13%)
Market implied -10.2%, PE stable at 9.8
Bear Case
$35.76
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 7:23 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:23 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:23 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UFCS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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