United Fire Group (UFCS) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UFCS - United Fire Group Inc.
$55.38
0.62 (1.13%)
▲
5d:
-1.28%
30d:
+4.1%
90d:
+16.05%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: UFCS shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: UFCS shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$52.52
Based on 0.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$32.61
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UFCS is currently trading at $55.38, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $53.31 to $54.93. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.4) is in line with its historical norms (10.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UFCS is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $56.74. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UFCS scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UFCS is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $56.74. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UFCS scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$53.31 -
$54.93
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
24.8%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (35/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($58.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$53.31 -
$54.93
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$52.42
Resistance Level
$56.74
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.44
Wall Street Target
$58.50
(+5.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
48.3%
Profit Margin
9.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.7% premium
PE vs Historical
11.4 vs 10.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$56.88
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$58.41
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$59.99
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$55.57
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: -3.0%)
$89.08
(+61%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.4, Growth: -3.0%)
$50.53
(-9%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.7, Growth: -3.0%)
$42.95
(-22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 9.96 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.50
Bull Case
$53.01
(-4%)
Analyst growth -12.0%, PE expands to 11.0
Base Case
$48.19
(-13%)
Market implied -12.0%, PE stable at 10.0
Bear Case
$37.24
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 5:03 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:03 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:03 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UFCS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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