UGP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UGP - Ultrapar Participacoes S.A.
$6.74
0.19 (2.90%)
▲
5d:
+9.42%
30d:
+2.74%
90d:
+16.41%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 12, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: UGP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: UGP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$4.15
Based on -7.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$2.58
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UGP is currently trading at $6.74, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.08 to $6.50. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.3) is in line with its historical norms (10.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UGP is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $6.79. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UGP scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UGP is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $6.79. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UGP scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$6.08 -
$6.50
Company Quality Score
37/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
24.8%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($6.72)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 37/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$6.08 -
$6.50
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.84
Resistance Level
$6.80
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.30
Wall Street Target
$6.72
(-0.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
44.3%
Profit Margin
2.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.1% premium
PE vs Historical
11.3 vs 10.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6.88
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$7.03
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$7.17
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$6.73
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: -19.4%)
$8.73
(+30%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.3, Growth: -19.4%)
$4.91
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.6, Growth: -19.4%)
$4.18
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 10.40 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.63
Bull Case
$6.82
(+1%)
Analyst growth -5.3%, PE expands to 11.4
Base Case
$6.20
(-8%)
Market implied -5.3%, PE stable at 10.4
Bear Case
$4.45
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 11:49 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:49 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:49 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UGP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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