Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UGP - Ultrapar Participacoes S.A.
$7.45
-0.11 (-1.46%)
▼
5d:
+4.05%
30d:
+27.35%
90d:
+52.04%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 12, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: UGP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: UGP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$3.61
Based on -11.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$2.24
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UGP is currently trading at $7.45, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.15 to $7.10. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.7) is in line with its historical norms (10.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UGP is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $7.63. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UGP scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UGP is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $7.63. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UGP scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$6.15 -
$7.10
Company Quality Score
36/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
22.4%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($6.72)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 36/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$6.15 -
$7.10
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$6.36
Resistance Level
$7.63
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.72
Wall Street Target
$6.72
(-9.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
44.3%
Profit Margin
2.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.1% premium
PE vs Historical
11.7 vs 10.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.68
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$7.92
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$8.16
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$7.45
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: -26.5%)
$9.34
(+25%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.7, Growth: -26.5%)
$5.43
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.0, Growth: -26.5%)
$4.62
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.81 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.64
Bull Case
$8.26
(+11%)
Analyst growth -0.7%, PE expands to 13.0
Base Case
$7.51
(+1%)
Market implied -0.7%, PE stable at 11.8
Bear Case
$5.14
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 5:07 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:07 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:07 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UGP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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