UGP
Ultrapar Participacoes S.A.
Natural Gas Distribution
Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$5.63
+0.20 (+3.68%)
▲
5d:
+1.26%
30d:
-28.19%
90d:
-8.6%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
HOLD
LOW Confidence (95%)
Quality Score
58/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$5.77 – $7.87
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
9.6x
CHEAP
vs 10.8x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$7.43
+32.0% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$5.32 / $5.98
Trend: Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 HOLD: UGP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$3.42
Based on -11.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$2.13
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UGP is currently trading at $5.63, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.77 to $7.87. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.6) compared to its historical average (10.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 44.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UGP is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $5.32, while resistance sits at $5.98. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: UGP scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.43 (+32.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UGP is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $5.32, while resistance sits at $5.98. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: UGP scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.43 (+32.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$5.77 -
$7.87
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
95.2%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$5.77 -
$7.87
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support Level
$5.32
Resistance Level
$5.98
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.7%)
- BULLISH: Trading 32.0% below Wall St target ($7.43)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 16% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.60
Wall Street Target
$7.43
(+32.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
44.3%
Profit Margin
2.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.6 vs 10.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.41
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$5.20
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$5.00
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$5.62
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -25.9%)
$8.49
(+51%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.6, Growth: -25.9%)
$4.10
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.2, Growth: -25.9%)
$3.49
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 8.76 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.62
Bull Case
$5.65
(+0%)
Analyst growth -5.4%, PE expands to 9.6
Base Case
$5.14
(-9%)
Market implied -5.4%, PE stable at 8.8
Bear Case
$3.69
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.6 to 10.8
Stabilization Target:
$6.34
(+12.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.5%
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Last updated: November 12, 2026 7:26 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:26 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:26 PM
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
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Sells
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Net
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