Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UGP - Ultrapar Participacoes S.A.
$7.74
-0.06 (-0.77%)
âŧ
5d:
-0.77%
30d:
+3.34%
90d:
+23.25%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 11, 2026
18d
Get Alerted When UGP Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: UGP is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 3.6% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: UGP is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 3.6% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$3.48
Based on -12.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$2.16
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UGP is currently trading at $7.74, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $7.40 to $7.85. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 12.1) compared to its historical average (10.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UGP is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $7.57. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: UGP scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UGP is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $7.57. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: UGP scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$7.40 -
$7.85
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
46.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (35/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($7.67)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$7.40 -
$7.85
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.57
Resistance Level
$8.15
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.14
Wall Street Target
$7.67
(-1.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
44.3%
Profit Margin
2.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.6% premium
PE vs Historical
12.1 vs 10.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.02
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$8.31
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$8.61
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12â11)
PE COMPRESSION
$7.73
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -28.3%)
$9.23
(+19%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.1, Growth: -28.3%)
$5.64
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.3, Growth: -28.3%)
$4.80
(-38%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.58 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.62
Bull Case
$8.82
(+14%)
Analyst growth 2.9%, PE expands to 13.8
Base Case
$8.02
(+4%)
Market implied 2.9%, PE stable at 12.6
Bear Case
$5.30
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 6:07 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:07 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:07 PM
đĨ Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is UGP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
PSX
Phillips 66 |
BUY
20 analysts |
$280 | 45 HOLD |
|
VLO
Valero Energy Corporation |
HOLD
20 analysts |
$407 | 50 HOLD |
|
SUN
Sunoco LP |
STRONG BUY
7 analysts |
$83 | 57 HOLD |
|
MPC
Marathon Petroleum Corp |
HOLD
19 analysts |
$442 | 42 HOLD |
|
CLNE
Clean Energy Fuels Corp |
BUY
6 analysts |
$4 | 74 BUY |
