Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UGP - Ultrapar Participacoes S.A.
$7.45
0.11 (1.50%)
â˛
5d:
+4.93%
30d:
+4.49%
90d:
+37.71%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 11, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: UGP is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 2.9% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: UGP is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 2.9% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$3.64
Based on -11.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$2.26
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UGP is currently trading at $7.45, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.84 to $7.61. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.7) is in line with its historical norms (10.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UGP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $6.96, while resistance sits at $7.78.
Market Sentiment: UGP scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UGP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $6.96, while resistance sits at $7.78.
Market Sentiment: UGP scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$6.84 -
$7.61
Company Quality Score
36/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
39.0%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($7.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 36/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$6.84 -
$7.61
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$6.97
Resistance Level
$7.78
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.72
Wall Street Target
$7.50
(+0.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
44.3%
Profit Margin
2.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.9% premium
PE vs Historical
11.7 vs 10.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.67
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$7.89
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$8.12
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12â11)
PE COMPRESSION
$7.48
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: -26.5%)
$9.45
(+27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.7, Growth: -26.5%)
$5.43
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.0, Growth: -26.5%)
$4.62
(-38%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 11.65 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.63
Bull Case
$8.14
(+9%)
Analyst growth 0.9%, PE expands to 12.8
Base Case
$7.40
(-1%)
Market implied 0.9%, PE stable at 11.7
Bear Case
$4.99
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 11:33 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:33 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:33 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UGP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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