UGP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UGP - Ultrapar Participacoes S.A.
$6.49
-0.01 (-0.15%)
▼
5d:
+3.34%
30d:
+28.01%
90d:
+8.71%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 12, 2026
7d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: UGP is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: UGP is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$4.32
Based on -6.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$2.68
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UGP is currently trading at $6.49, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.33 to $6.45. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.3) is in line with its historical norms (10.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UGP is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $6.59. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UGP has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UGP is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $6.59. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UGP has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$5.33 -
$6.45
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($6.43)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$5.33 -
$6.45
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$6.13
Resistance Level
$6.59
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.30
Wall Street Target
$6.43
(-0.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
167.4%
Profit Margin
2.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.1% premium
PE vs Historical
11.3 vs 10.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6.63
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$6.77
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$6.91
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$6.48
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: -16.7%)
$8.68
(+34%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.3, Growth: -16.7%)
$4.73
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.6, Growth: -16.7%)
$4.02
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.61 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.56
Bull Case
$7.33
(+13%)
Analyst growth 2.5%, PE expands to 12.8
Base Case
$6.66
(+3%)
Market implied 2.5%, PE stable at 11.6
Bear Case
$4.42
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 7:11 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:11 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:11 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UGP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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