UGP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UGP - Ultrapar Participacoes S.A.
$6.00
0.00 (0.00%)
▲
5d:
+10.91%
30d:
+23.71%
90d:
-0.33%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 12, 2026
28d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: UGP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: UGP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$5.33
Based on -2.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$3.31
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UGP is currently trading at $6.00, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.69 to $5.46. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.3) is in line with its historical norms (10.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 167.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UGP is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $5.63. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UGP is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $5.63. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$4.69 -
$5.46
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
41.4%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+9.9% above its trading range)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($6.43)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.69 -
$5.46
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.72
Resistance Level
$5.64
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.35
Wall Street Target
$6.43
(+7.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
167.4%
Profit Margin
2.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.4 vs 10.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.96
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$5.92
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$5.87
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$6.01
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -9.4%)
$9.40
(+57%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.4, Growth: -9.4%)
$4.47
(-26%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.8, Growth: -9.4%)
$3.80
(-37%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.91 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.55
Bull Case
$6.95
(+16%)
Analyst growth 5.4%, PE expands to 12.0
Base Case
$6.32
(+5%)
Market implied 5.4%, PE stable at 10.9
Bear Case
$4.08
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.4 to 10.6
Stabilization Target:
$6.14
(+2.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 2:38 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:38 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:38 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UGP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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