UGP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UGP - Ultrapar Participacoes S.A.
$4.94
0.05 (1.02%)
▲
5d:
+3.56%
30d:
-14.68%
90d:
-5.0%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 12, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: UGP appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -7.5% annual earnings decline despite 167% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: UGP appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -7.5% annual earnings decline despite 167% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$1.00
Based on -27.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$0.62
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UGP is currently trading at $4.94, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.76 to $5.53. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.5) compared to its historical average (10.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 167.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UGP is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $4.72, while resistance sits at $5.63.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.40 (+29.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UGP is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $4.72, while resistance sits at $5.63.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.40 (+29.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$4.76 -
$5.53
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 29.5% below Wall St target ($6.40)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.76 -
$5.53
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.72
Resistance Level
$5.64
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.51
Wall Street Target
$6.40
(+29.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
167.4%
Profit Margin
2.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.5 vs 10.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.57
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$4.23
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$3.91
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→11)
$4.92
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -58.2%)
$12.42
(+152%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.5, Growth: -58.2%)
$4.85
(-2%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.2, Growth: -58.2%)
$4.13
(-17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.89 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.55
Bull Case
$5.68
(+15%)
Analyst growth 5.5%, PE expands to 9.8
Base Case
$5.16
(+5%)
Market implied 5.5%, PE stable at 8.9
Bear Case
$3.33
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.5 to 10.7
Stabilization Target:
$6.21
(+25.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+25.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 1:06 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:06 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:06 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UGP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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