Urban Outfitters (URBN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
URBN - Urban Outfitters Inc
$79.75
-0.50 (-0.62%)
▼
5d:
+4.41%
30d:
+0.4%
90d:
+15.13%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 7, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 24, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: URBN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: URBN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$102.60
Based on 6.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$63.70
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: URBN is currently trading at $79.75, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $75.28 to $80.01. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.9) is in line with its historical norms (13.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, URBN is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $73.97, while resistance sits at $82.34.
Market Sentiment: URBN scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $89.43 (+12.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, URBN is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $73.97, while resistance sits at $82.34.
Market Sentiment: URBN scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $89.43 (+12.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$75.28 -
$80.01
Company Quality Score
39/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
27.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (20/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($89.43)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 39/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$75.28 -
$80.01
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$73.97
Resistance Level
$82.34
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 7, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.90
Wall Street Target
$89.43
(+12.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
75.9%
Profit Margin
8.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.2% premium
PE vs Historical
13.9 vs 13.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$81.50
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$83.30
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$85.13
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$79.62
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.7, Growth: 9.2%)
$147.19
(+85%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.9, Growth: 9.2%)
$103.85
(+30%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.8, Growth: 9.2%)
$88.27
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 12.78 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.28
Bull Case
$80.65
(+1%)
Analyst growth -8.6%, PE expands to 14.1
Base Case
$73.32
(-8%)
Market implied -8.6%, PE stable at 12.8
Bear Case
$54.57
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 08, 2026 1:56 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:56 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:56 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is URBN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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