Urban Outfitters (URBN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
URBN - Urban Outfitters Inc
$86.49
-1.80 (-2.04%)
▼
5d:
-0.09%
30d:
+15.66%
90d:
+19.12%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 24, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: URBN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: URBN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$103.39
Based on 6.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$64.19
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: URBN is currently trading at $86.49, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $75.53 to $85.06. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 15.4) compared to its historical average (13.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, URBN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $80.03, while resistance sits at $90.59.
Market Sentiment: URBN scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, URBN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $80.03, while resistance sits at $90.59.
Market Sentiment: URBN scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$75.53 -
$85.06
Company Quality Score
31/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
22.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($90.36)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.5% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 31/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$75.53 -
$85.06
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$80.03
Resistance Level
$90.59
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.39
Wall Street Target
$90.36
(+2.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
75.9%
Profit Margin
8.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.5% premium
PE vs Historical
15.4 vs 13.1
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$93.15
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$98.27
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$103.67
(+17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$88.26
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 9.2%)
$148.38
(+68%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.4, Growth: 9.2%)
$114.97
(+30%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.1, Growth: 9.2%)
$97.72
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 13.61 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.39
Bull Case
$85.89
(-3%)
Analyst growth -10.2%, PE expands to 15.0
Base Case
$78.08
(-12%)
Market implied -10.2%, PE stable at 13.6
Bear Case
$59.13
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 2:01 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:01 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:01 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is URBN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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