Urban Outfitters (URBN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
URBN - Urban Outfitters Inc
$80.80
2.03 (2.58%)
▲
5d:
+7.23%
30d:
+2.6%
90d:
+16.48%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 24, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: URBN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: URBN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$102.60
Based on 6.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$63.70
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: URBN is currently trading at $80.80, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $75.17 to $79.98. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.1) is in line with its historical norms (13.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, URBN is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $80.92. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: URBN scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $89.43 (+10.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, URBN is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $80.92. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: URBN scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $89.43 (+10.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$75.17 -
$79.98
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
27.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($89.43)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$75.17 -
$79.98
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$73.62
Resistance Level
$80.92
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.08
Wall Street Target
$89.43
(+10.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
75.9%
Profit Margin
8.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.6% premium
PE vs Historical
14.1 vs 13.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$82.90
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$85.06
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$87.27
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$80.56
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 9.2%)
$152.42
(+89%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.1, Growth: 9.2%)
$105.22
(+30%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.0, Growth: 9.2%)
$89.43
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 11.93 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.60
Bull Case
$75.32
(-7%)
Analyst growth -13.1%, PE expands to 13.1
Base Case
$68.48
(-15%)
Market implied -13.1%, PE stable at 11.9
Bear Case
$53.56
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 7:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is URBN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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