UNIVERSAL INSURANCE HLDG (UVE) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UVE - UNIVERSAL INSURANCE HLDG, INC.
$48.84
0.44 (0.91%)
▲
5d:
+3.65%
30d:
+14.94%
90d:
+12.69%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: UVE shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: UVE shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.30
Based on -13.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.98
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UVE is currently trading at $48.84, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $42.84 to $47.05. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 10.8) compared to its historical average (9.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UVE is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $50.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UVE scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UVE is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $50.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UVE scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$42.84 -
$47.05
Company Quality Score
32/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
20.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (5/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($45.00)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.4% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 32/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$42.84 -
$47.05
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$45.54
Resistance Level
$50.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.85
Wall Street Target
$45.00
(-7.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
68.6%
Profit Margin
13.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.4% premium
PE vs Historical
10.9 vs 9.3
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$51.48
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$54.26
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$57.19
(+17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$49.00
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -30.9%)
$65.15
(+33%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.9, Growth: -30.9%)
$35.60
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.2, Growth: -30.9%)
$30.26
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 6.37 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.60
Bull Case
$31.52
(-36%)
Analyst growth -40.8%, PE expands to 7.0
Base Case
$28.66
(-41%)
Market implied -40.8%, PE stable at 6.4
Bear Case
$32.91
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 24, 2026 8:24 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:24 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:24 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UVE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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