UVE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UVE - UNIVERSAL INSURANCE HLDG, INC.
$35.68
-0.59 (-1.63%)
▼
5d:
-6.5%
30d:
-8.7%
90d:
-1.92%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: UVE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: UVE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.60
Based on -1.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.72
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UVE is currently trading at $35.68, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.63 to $40.30. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.1) compared to its historical average (9.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 30.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UVE is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $35.39. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $44.00 (+23.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UVE is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $35.39. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $44.00 (+23.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$37.63 -
$40.30
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.3% below Wall St target ($44.00)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.5% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$37.63 -
$40.30
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.39
Resistance Level
$40.14
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.11
Wall Street Target
$44.00
(+23.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
30.6%
Profit Margin
12.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.1 vs 9.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$34.36
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$33.09
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$31.86
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$35.76
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: -7.4%)
$76.63
(+115%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.1, Growth: -7.4%)
$28.36
(-21%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.9, Growth: -7.4%)
$24.11
(-32%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 5.64 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.76
Bull Case
$27.32
(-27%)
Analyst growth -34.9%, PE expands to 6.2
Base Case
$24.84
(-34%)
Market implied -34.9%, PE stable at 5.6
Bear Case
$25.95
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.1 to 9.1
Stabilization Target:
$40.04
(+12.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 03, 2026 7:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:06 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:06 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UVE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kimberly D Campos
SELL
879 shares
2026-03-26
Sean P Downes
SELL
20000 shares
2026-03-25
Richard D Peterson
SELL
1855 shares
2025-12-30
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