UNIVERSAL INSURANCE HLDG (UVE) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$48.57
+0.00 (+0.00%)
â˛
5d:
+3.89%
30d:
+3.69%
90d:
+13.77%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (61%)
Quality Score
51/100
Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
30-Day Fair Range
$46.13 â $48.58
Position: SLIGHTLY HIGH
Forward P/E & Valuation
8.7x
FAIR
vs 9.2x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$51.00
+5.0% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$46.00 / $50.47
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: UVE is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -2.1% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$39.64
Based on -4.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$24.61
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UVE is currently trading at $48.57, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $46.13 to $48.58. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.7) is in line with its historical norms (9.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 30.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UVE is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $46.00, while resistance sits at $50.47.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UVE is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $46.00, while resistance sits at $50.47.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$46.13 -
$48.58
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$46.13 -
$48.58
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support Level
$46.00
Resistance Level
$50.47
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 13, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (57/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($51.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.67
Wall Street Target
$51.00
(+5.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
30.4%
Profit Margin
14.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.7 vs 9.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$47.55
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$46.55
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$45.57
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9â9)
$48.34
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -13.8%)
$81.08
(+67%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.7, Growth: -13.8%)
$35.41
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.4, Growth: -13.8%)
$30.10
(-38%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 6.06 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.02
Bull Case
$37.31
(-23%)
Analyst growth -30.2%, PE expands to 6.7
Base Case
$33.91
(-30%)
Market implied -30.2%, PE stable at 6.1
Bear Case
$33.03
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.7 to 9.2
Stabilization Target:
$51.52
(+6.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.1%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (UVE)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Feb 25, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Investor on StockTwits expresses bullish sentiment towards $UVE, citing a significant earnings beat and comparing it to a similar situation with $HRTG. No recent news articles are available.
Key Retail Themes:
Earnings beat
Price target
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 14, 2026 6:05 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:05 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:05 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UVE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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