UVE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UVE - UNIVERSAL INSURANCE HLDG, INC.
$44.23
0.52 (1.19%)
▲
5d:
+2.05%
30d:
+2.84%
90d:
+11.41%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: UVE is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: UVE is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$31.77
Based on -4.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.73
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UVE is currently trading at $44.23, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $39.27 to $43.68. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.8) is in line with its historical norms (9.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UVE is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $45.15. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UVE has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UVE is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $45.15. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UVE has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$39.27 -
$43.68
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($45.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$39.27 -
$43.68
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.70
Resistance Level
$45.15
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.83
Wall Street Target
$45.00
(+1.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
68.6%
Profit Margin
13.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.7% premium
PE vs Historical
9.8 vs 9.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$45.42
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$46.65
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$47.91
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$44.36
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: -13.5%)
$68.00
(+54%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.8, Growth: -13.5%)
$32.24
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.4, Growth: -13.5%)
$27.41
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 5.74 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.61
Bull Case
$28.43
(-36%)
Analyst growth -40.9%, PE expands to 6.3
Base Case
$25.85
(-42%)
Market implied -40.9%, PE stable at 5.7
Bear Case
$29.72
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 5:34 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:34 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:34 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UVE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kimberly D Campos
SELL
879 shares
2026-03-26
Sean P Downes
SELL
20000 shares
2026-03-25
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