UVE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UVE - UNIVERSAL INSURANCE HLDG, INC.
$43.60
1.28 (3.02%)
▲
5d:
+2.13%
30d:
+4.78%
90d:
+11.85%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: UVE is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: UVE is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$31.77
Based on -4.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.73
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UVE is currently trading at $43.60, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $40.06 to $44.53. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.4) is in line with its historical norms (9.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UVE is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $44.21. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 46/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UVE is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $44.21. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 46/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$40.06 -
$44.53
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
66.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (46/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.0%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($45.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (46/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$40.06 -
$44.53
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$41.72
Resistance Level
$44.21
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 24, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.40
Wall Street Target
$45.00
(+6.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
68.6%
Profit Margin
13.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.0% premium
PE vs Historical
9.4 vs 9.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$42.74
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$43.17
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$43.60
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$42.19
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: -13.5%)
$65.84
(+56%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.4, Growth: -13.5%)
$30.85
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.0, Growth: -13.5%)
$26.22
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 5.56 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.61
Bull Case
$27.53
(-35%)
Analyst growth -40.9%, PE expands to 6.1
Base Case
$25.03
(-41%)
Market implied -40.9%, PE stable at 5.6
Bear Case
$28.78
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 4:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:39 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UVE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kimberly D Campos
SELL
879 shares
2026-03-26
Sean P Downes
SELL
20000 shares
2026-03-25
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