UNIVERSAL INSURANCE HLDG (UVE) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UVE - UNIVERSAL INSURANCE HLDG, INC.
$44.33
0.11 (0.25%)
▲
5d:
-0.98%
30d:
+4.95%
90d:
+16.41%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: UVE shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: UVE shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$32.12
Based on -4.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.94
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UVE is currently trading at $44.33, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $42.65 to $44.19. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.8) is in line with its historical norms (9.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UVE is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $45.14. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UVE is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $45.14. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$42.65 -
$44.19
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
47.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (41/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($45.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$42.65 -
$44.19
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$42.75
Resistance Level
$45.14
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.85
Wall Street Target
$45.00
(+1.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
68.6%
Profit Margin
13.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.4% premium
PE vs Historical
9.9 vs 9.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$45.39
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$46.48
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$47.60
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$44.45
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: -13.5%)
$66.17
(+49%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.9, Growth: -13.5%)
$32.32
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.4, Growth: -13.5%)
$27.47
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 5.81 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.61
Bull Case
$28.76
(-35%)
Analyst growth -40.9%, PE expands to 6.4
Base Case
$26.15
(-41%)
Market implied -40.9%, PE stable at 5.8
Bear Case
$30.07
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 14, 2026 3:11 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:11 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:11 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UVE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kimberly D Campos
SELL
879 shares
2026-03-26
Sean P Downes
SELL
20000 shares
2026-03-25
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