UNIVERSAL INSURANCE HLDG (UVE) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UVE - UNIVERSAL INSURANCE HLDG, INC.
$43.95
0.82 (1.90%)
▲
5d:
+4.3%
30d:
+0.07%
90d:
+2.45%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
17d
Get Alerted When UVE Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: UVE is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: UVE is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$32.12
Based on -4.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.94
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UVE is currently trading at $43.95, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $42.73 to $44.31. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.8) is in line with its historical norms (9.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UVE is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $44.44. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UVE scores 64/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UVE is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $44.44. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UVE scores 64/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$42.73 -
$44.31
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (64/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($45.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 16% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$42.73 -
$44.31
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$41.65
Resistance Level
$44.44
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.77
Wall Street Target
$45.00
(+2.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
68.6%
Profit Margin
13.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.0% premium
PE vs Historical
9.8 vs 9.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$44.83
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$45.73
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$46.64
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$43.93
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: -13.5%)
$66.92
(+52%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.8, Growth: -13.5%)
$32.04
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.3, Growth: -13.5%)
$27.23
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 5.53 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.80
Bull Case
$27.37
(-38%)
Analyst growth -42.3%, PE expands to 6.1
Base Case
$24.88
(-43%)
Market implied -42.3%, PE stable at 5.5
Bear Case
$29.33
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 04, 2026 4:10 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:10 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:10 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is UVE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Insurance - Property & Casualty Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Insurance - Property & Casualty by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
ALL
The Allstate Corporation |
BUY
25 analysts |
$276 | 58 HOLD |
|
TRV
The Travelers Companies … |
SELL
28 analysts |
$361 | 65 BUY |
|
CB
Chubb Ltd |
HOLD
25 analysts |
$366 | 67 BUY |
|
HIG
Hartford Financial Servi… |
BUY
19 analysts |
$144 | 60 HOLD |
|
PGR
Progressive Corp |
BUY
19 analysts |
$231 | 54 HOLD |
