VRNS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VRNS - Varonis Systems, Inc.
$45.38
0.85 (1.91%)
▲
5d:
-0.63%
30d:
+37.93%
90d:
+124.76%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
20d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: VRNS trades at premium valuation expecting 14.1% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: VRNS trades at premium valuation expecting 14.1% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.61
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.55
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VRNS is currently trading at $45.38, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $32.89 to $43.15. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 118.7) compared to its historical average (79.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 14.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VRNS is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $39.41, while resistance sits at $47.58.
Market Sentiment: VRNS has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $37.05. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VRNS is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $39.41, while resistance sits at $47.58.
Market Sentiment: VRNS has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $37.05. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$32.89 -
$43.15
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
46.7%
Protect Your Profits
VRNS is technically overbought (RSI 75). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.2% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 18.4% above Wall St target ($37.05)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 14.1% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$32.89 -
$43.15
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$39.41
Resistance Level
$47.58
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
118.73
Wall Street Target
$37.05
(-18.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.9%
Profit Margin
-19.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+14.1% premium
PE vs Historical
118.7 vs 79.9
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+14.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$51.78
(+14%)
2-Year Target
$59.08
(+30%)
3-Year Target
$67.41
(+49%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 119→80)
PE COMPRESSION
$45.36
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 118.7, Growth: 222.0%)
$153.16
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 222.0%)
$28.09
(-38%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 222.0%)
$23.88
(-47%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 12:38 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:38 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:38 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VRNS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
David Bass
BUY
2980 shares
2026-02-09
Avrohom J Kess
BUY
17800 shares
2026-02-06
John J Gavin Jr
BUY
5000 shares
2026-02-06
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Advanced VRNS Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's VRNS price and gamma walls.
