VRNS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VRNS - Varonis Systems, Inc.
$41.23
0.38 (0.93%)
▲
5d:
-8.36%
30d:
-7.93%
90d:
+34.47%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: VRNS shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: VRNS shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$20.10
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.48
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VRNS is currently trading at $41.23, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $41.68 to $46.46. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 99.9) compared to its historical average (84.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VRNS is showing support break momentum. Immediate support is located at $39.88, while resistance sits at $45.95.
Market Sentiment: VRNS scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $50.68 (+22.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VRNS is showing support break momentum. Immediate support is located at $39.88, while resistance sits at $45.95.
Market Sentiment: VRNS scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $50.68 (+22.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$41.68 -
$46.46
Company Quality Score
35/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
56.2%
Protect Your Profits
Holding VRNS? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (31/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.9% below Wall St target ($50.68)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.7% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 35/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$41.68 -
$46.46
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$39.88
Resistance Level
$45.95
Current Trend
Support Break
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
99.88
Wall Street Target
$50.68
(+22.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.3%
Profit Margin
-20.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.7% premium
PE vs Historical
99.9 vs 84.5
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$43.58
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$46.06
(+12%)
3-Year Target
$48.69
(+18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 100→85)
PE COMPRESSION
$41.19
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 99.9, Growth: 173.0%)
$139.15
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 173.0%)
$27.96
(-32%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 173.0%)
$23.77
(-42%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 6:26 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:26 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:26 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VRNS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced VRNS Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's VRNS price and gamma walls.
